HIPPYVALLEY

3 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

978 basically at the BM on GFS.

That would work for many.

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS crushing

Go on...

Just now, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

How much human input is needed to run these models? Is there a bunch of German dudes sitting around at 430 am getting plastered?

You know, good question, I don't really know what goes on behind the scenes in the weather model world. 

5 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

That axis of goodies on the latest ICON Kuchera is making me think dirty thoughts of DEC 2020. Just needs a little more tilt and about 3 times the QPF and bam! Easy-Peasy. 

Moving way to fast for big QPF.  Probably a high end max of 1.5"LE somewhere in SNE and that might be pushing it.

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Could have ingested a lot of Hefeweizen.

Summer sunshine beer, ICON has probably been hitting the Doppelbock.  

6 minutes ago, NEPASnow said:

its always been the northern most of the models, or is our confluence going away?

Some models moved towards more confluence today.  Goalposts will be much more defined by 12z solutions tomorrow. Better sampling of all the players involved.

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

True. 

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think best snow might be above H7 for a time. So maybe look at H7 warm front and think a bit north of that.

Couldn't care less about jackpots, just want to see a period of +SN, because in reality, that in and of itself, can be a rarity some winters.

I'm not going to get too worked up in either direction because as @weatherwizsaid, need to see where that best fronto sets up and might not know that for another day or so.

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’m mildly concerned about a day of clouds.

Looks like it should be a good one to raise spirits in SNE. Everyone has been so beaten down this winter. Would be nice to get some positivity going for the masses.

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

probably tomorrow start paying closer attention to snow growth, lift, snow ratios, etc. I feel like there are going to be alot of challenges with this one. Several red flags and several green flags (or whatever is used to refer to something good lol). 

SOP looks good for the moment.  I'm conservatively going 4-6" here. My area up through S VT/NH gets saved by a pretty expansive precipitation shield moving into the confluence.  Southern streamer is bringing decent moisture but don't want to see any trends weaker with that because for my area sheared = screwed. 

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The NAM would deliver the goods to many. 

I'm mildly concerned about 8 hours of arctic sand N of RT 2.

edit: and W of ORH Co.

I feel like a lot of people are thinking about the spike before they have actually gotten into the end zone.  Hopefully everyone from NYC to  CNE gets plowable snows but I think the band of 8”+ will be narrow. 

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

My Goalposts are from a zone ranging from Waterbury, CT to Springfield, VT and points NE from there.

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Your optimism is a welcome balance to my jaded outlooks when it comes to snow accumulations  in the upper Valley. 

3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Who said 6 hours?

Six hours of moderate to occasionally heavy snow sounds about right for many.  Crumbs either side of that.

27 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

6-8 hour storm outside of flurries before and after. 

32 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Wish this storm wasn’t in such a hurry.

I can’t even remember the last slow mover, juggernaut we had.

15 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

This thing is hauling ass to the flemish cap. It’s a 10-12 hour event. 

We tried to tell them.  

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I do not agree.

Yeah, I’m just feeling cautious on this one. Let’s  see how modeling goes once we get into some better sampling tomorrow. I’m just worried about S stream coming in weaker and getting suppressed. 
are you thinking we start to see slightly more amped north trends showing up?
 

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

24 hour storm 

8-12 hour storm.   

48 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Hi

I feel like this will be a south of Pike event. Let’s see how models look tomorrow but I’m planning on a light event up this way.

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think speed of movement is the big limiting factor even if it comes together.

Which seems to be the norm the past few years.

31 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not much wind again.  Those storms don't seem to exist anymore

Which also seems to be the norm the past few years.

Better sampling tomorrow but can’t deny the S trend today.  Confluence combined with a weaker S stream would close the shades on this one but I’l give it through Friday night to shift better. 

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How does the primary get so far north with blocking ?

I wouldn’t worry about it, wake me up for the 12z Friday runs.

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This reminds me a bit of the major December 2019 system.

That one was a fine start to snow season.

17” in Greenfield.  Sort of my last “big dog” storm.

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How do you feel about the PD period?

I think that’s the first good window.  

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Kinda warm near the coast but the Icon tends to do that but i'd take that track and intensity all day

Lack of any real cold airmass is gonna be a problem (near the coast) though even if we do a get a bomb like this

For the love of God, please let this be something to track.