michaelmantis

I just got back from my parents in Arlington Heights / Des Plains area and the difference in snow in just 15 miles (as the crow flies) where I'm at was clear. Now how far will the lake impact things is one of the big questions (low placement obviously too!)

(Not sure if this is too off topic) Didn't the NWS split Cook county into a North and South warning zone for Thunderstorms recently? And one would think there would be some split for areas near the Lake in situations like this.

Winter Storm Watch posted by LOT...

I just want more "snow" and not "slop". I just got done shoveling 2 inches of compacted ice at my parents house (that they didn't get to shovel yesterday).

I'm riding the knife's edge at that pivot point keeping me in the money for a few hours longer.

Entire event changed here about 2 hours ago. The front end precip was sloppy and rates weren't that good. The last two hours have been totally ripping. Going to shovel the driveway so the slop doesn't freeze or get any thicker. Not looking forward to the single digit highs that may come around early next week.

The slop finally is hidden by actual snow. Been going pretty good for a half hour or so. Best flakes of the event so far.

So how do the updated grids (which has me at 5-10 for the next 24 hours based on the update Borchardt seems to have done a few minutes ago) match up with this posting from 8:51 PM that shows 8-12 (based on the Probabilistic Forecasts)? Not knocking anyone, just wondering how different numbers can come from a NWS office within an hour of each other and it looks like Borchardt published the 8:51 PM update too? https://www.weather.gov/lot/winter

Wow... Cliff's notes version reading the 822 PM update pretty much is "the snowfall guidance from the prior shift is way too high but the impacts are the same." Flakes in Elgin started around 9:30 PM.

So what is your level of interest? ;-) Considering the 2 inches we got last night was the highlight of the season so far, anything more than that *has* to be exciting for all of us! :-) I'd be not hoping/expecting much near the lake in NE IL but someone between Quad Cities and Collar Counties in IL may get a decent 6ish (+/- 2) event.

Rain is over-performing here for sure. Thank goodness we are cooling down after this because the humidity would be crazy. Looks like the MI people going to get into the action too. Amazing to see the development of these from nothing to something.

Approaching 2.5-3 inches for the 24 hour period (2 inches in last 2 hours) depending on which rain gauge I use. Looks like something is trying to build in intensity south of Rockford, maybe the main line won't be the last of it...

Line in N IL just started by me and its a monsoon rain. This thing is no joke and if it doesn't move fast there is for sure going to be flooding north of I-88.

Some nice cells just popped up a few minutes ago west of Madison... Enjoy!

Izzi really hitting the Flash Flooding concerns in N IL. Radar looks beautiful but scary. The rain that has fallen so far has been tropical-like (huge sized drops).

Severe Storm Watch, Flood Watch, Special Weather Statement, and storms in Kane County popping up in last 15 minute. It's on...

Lake breeze right over my house in N IL (can clearly see it on satellite from South Side of Chicago all the way up past Milwaukee) and this has the feeling of something popping nearby soon or that stuff starting up in IA to grow really fast.

Not looking like much will develop in N IL. Keeping an eye on the visible satellite to see if anything can pop. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-N_Illinois-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

The storms in NW IL and East Iowa blow up nicely on the visible satellite in the last hour. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-N_Illinois-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined I was less than a 1/2 mile from the storms the hit N IL in Elgin a few days back (found a bunch of insulation from homes nearby in my backyard that fell from the sky while cutting the lawn today) and our area could use a break. About 3 dozen houses with tarps as roofs so hope there isn't a storm coming through this way and it passes us by.

Two rounds of pea sized hail in South Elgin occured around 1 PMish. Weird thing was after the first round it got sunny for about 10 minutes and then another downpour.

50 minutes later and that changed fast. Cotton balls falling, very pretty. I'll take it.

Looking like North of I-90 in IL has started as snow and I'm 5 miles south in Kane County and nothing yet. That doughnut hole needs to close or the "sharp cut off" will be closer to I-90 than I-88!

Back to the Future of 2015 didn't come (where are my flying cars?!?!?) but I do not think *any* of us here who are not full-time NWS employees who have degrees and expertise and built careers around forecasting the weather should use words like "laughing" to discuss reactions to official and public forecasts. It's not the 2015 of Back to the Future, we can't tell people the minute rain will end and we can't figure out that Chicago will get 5.2 inches of snow while Rockford get 4.9 inches 36 hours in advance. The guidance and ability to predict continues to improve (even if the NAM sucks). A model/forecast/prediction can still be wrong. Otherwise I'd be going to Vegas right now betting the farm because I knew "the odds" were exactly in my favor. Lets just be civil.

And damn Ricky did not disappoint...

Looking forward to Ricky's storm-specific update coming soon! Seems like lower totals overall but may be trending a little bit south in N IL. #### Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 256 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 .SHORT TERM... Issued at 253 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023 Through Friday... Key Forecast Messages and Concerns: * Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the I-88 and northward counties/zones, including WI state line counties which were previously in a Winter Storm Watch, starting 3pm Thursday near/west of Fox Valley, and 6pm Thursday closer to the lake * Very wet/dense/heavy snow once again, and temperatures starting a few to several degrees above freezing casts uncertainty regarding timing of worsening impacts Thursday afternoon * There is support for heavy snow rates up to an inch per hour causing impacts to part of the Thursday PM commute, though likely shorter duration of heavy rates and low SLRs points toward 12-hour snow amounts generally below 6" * Highest snow amounts remain forecast for the state line counties at up to 4-7" by the time the snow ends early Friday * Consideration of expanding the WWA a tier or two of counties southward toward I-80 corridor may be warranted depending on guidance and observational trends Tonight will be quiet and dry under the influence of surface high pressure ridging southward across the Great Lakes. Expecting cloud cover to balance out as mostly cloudy, with lows in the lower to mid 30s by early Thursday. Meteorological Details for Thursday PM-Friday AM Winter Weather: To be issued shortly. Castro