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Hoth

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Everything posted by Hoth

  1. Cool. As long as you've done your research. I just have a lot of skepticism about the way Cathy runs things. She gives me vibes of some of the momentary celebrity tech fund managers of the late '90s that blew up in the recession. Recently she tends to sell down her higher quality liquid positions and double down on lower quality illiquid stuff, which could be trouble if they face a period of sustained redemption pressure. She also recently suspended concentration limits in her funds, which from a risk management perspective is a bit of a red flag. Her research notes usually don't have any real analytical underpinnings, just a bunch of GIGO models with silly assumptions. And I should point out that one of the biggest weightings of that space ETF you mentioned is another Ark ETF. That sort of double-dipping raises an eyebrow as well.
  2. Any thoughts on whether the ongoing unwind of Archegos could lead to a more general degrossing of hedge fund lending at prime brokers? Some risk officers are probably sweating this morning.
  3. I won't make a recommendation either way, but I would strongly strongly urge you to do your due diligence before putting money at risk.
  4. More Tiger Cubs blowing up?
  5. Used to love hitting the Bowl in college. We had shuttles from campus all day during J term. They don't call it "Club Midd" for nothing. A tornado up there is hard to imagine at any time of year, let alone March!
  6. lol. Not something I'd ever considered before, but there's probably a surprisingly large addressable market for that sort of thing, at least for flatulence sourced from celebrities. Like, what would Wiz pay for a certified T Swift toot? Maybe we should set up a shell company and do a SPAC...
  7. Along with the guy who sold his flatulence for $85, I consider NFTs an excellent indication that we're nearing peak-bubble.
  8. It's not a lie if you believe it.
  9. Is the shed blue? If so, save it and designate it a neighborhood shelter for the next cat 4.
  10. That satellite/radar composite at 39:20 is one of the sexiest nor'easters I've ever seen. I don't even remember this storm. Must not have done much in SCT.
  11. Nada. Looks like 50" will elude me by a few tenths this year.
  12. Ratios might be a problem, especially for those last 10e+10 inches accumulating in the sun's corona. Might also lose some to Jupiter's gravitational field.
  13. Until internet speeds advanced enough to support file sharing and video content, the record companies were the gatekeepers. That system had its own problems, but with real money required to produce an album, they had a strong incentive to sign top-notch talent. The bar was just higher. Now anyone with a laptop and a social media account can be a songwriter and disseminate their "music", regardless of quality. You don't need to play an instrument; you don't even have to have a solid voice.
  14. Maybe the future isn't has hopeless as I first surmised.
  15. What a juiced up beast that was. Was that our last blizzard warning? I still remember watching the sleet line racing north from NJ early that morning and realizing our goose was probably cooked for high-end accumulations. It was a fun storm though, all the more so as the models locked in early.
  16. You ever read Jim Grant? You can sweep a lot of stuff under the rug in a falling interest rate environment. But after forty years of doing so, rates really can't go any lower, and there's little stimulative effect from running a negative rate policy. We're left with a sea of printing and liquidity distorting asset prices everywhere, supporting loss-making zombie companies and reckless capital deployment and ultimately economic malaise. I see these distortions spilling into the real world daily in my area. We've had an explosion of luxury apartment development in the last decade and many of the finished projects still have tons of vacancy, yet the building goes on and capacity increases. As I've said before, I believe the central bankers are scared shitless at what they've wrought, which is why they have to constantly jawbone and tweak and "stimulate" and respond every time we have a piddling correction. They've made the markets utterly dependent on them, never more than in the last year, and in turn have made themselves slaves to the market. They've forced retirees and pension funds to chase risky assets at high prices in search of yield because the risk free rate has gotten them so little for so long. Conservative investors and savers have been shafted. Central banks can't afford to raise rates with the vast ocean of debt and extremely extended stock valuations, but the problem only gets worse the longer they let this charade go on. I don't know when or how the party stops; until it does I'll sound like Chicken Little. It's going to be a gut-wrenching and protracted process when it does, with real-world consequences far beyond the financial markets.
  17. That's a gorgeous picture. Love the soft edge to the clouds with the approaching snow.
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