I believe it. Almost a fifth of the faculty at the school where my mother teaches is out with COVID and subs are almost impossible to come by. They're pulling administrators to try to cover, but it's a real stretch. A lot of folks couldn't get test results back in time as well.
This reminds me of Feb 5-6, 2010, the storm that first cemented "confluence" as a dirty word in my winter lexicon. I expect to smell the snow, but see nary a flake.
Dunno, but tail risk isn't often a popular topic of conversation. I imagine folks in Texas weren't discussing their potential risk prior to last year either.