Hoth

First flakes are on the books!

If I have no pack to protect, it can cut to Milwaukee for all I care.

My forecast of heavy, heavy disappointment looks like it was bang on the money.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Hopefully we're seeing a classic mid-range fumble by the modeling, only to have it roar back in a few days.

You're in a much better spot than I am. I feel you've got a decent shot.

I will take a few wet flakes and run. Hell, I still need to mow my lawn!

That's what IPA is for.

Leaf cleanup is more or less complete. I'll run the mower over the lawn one more time next weekend until the gas runs out, then it's time to wait for snow.

This will be solid preseason practice. No need to be invested yet; feels like a Mitch trouncer to me.

There is some eye opening data in this paper: https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc211108/

I feel the irrational psychotic rage building in me right now lol.

I'm crazy about keeping the snow in my yard pristine and always have been. When I was a kid, I used to get pissed at my little brother when he wanted to romp around in the new snow.

You know how you hear about how the average person will spend X weeks doing some mundane task over the course of their life? I wonder how big a slice of Kevin's pie chart will be devoted to keeping his lawn pristine. Gotta be a solid year or two.

Amen!

Now the leaves are really flying. Roaring out there!

Tornado in Branford two years in a row.

Just small branches. Tornado last year already took down a lot of the bigger stuff.

Very solid storm. Especially the violet lightning and hail!

That was fun. Cool clouds, violet vivid lightning, some good roaring gusts carrying the remaining leaves and about a minute of pea-sized hail. Not bad for mid-November!

Boom!

Really cool clouds coming through now. No idea what you call them, but they look like ribbons.

Welcome aboard and congrats on the damage! On a completely unrelated note, do you know Fraida Felcher?

Well, I suppose that is an ambiguous term that could vary from person to person. I'm just saying that if you're concentrated in U.S. equities and crypto, it might not be a bad idea to count your blessings, take the win you've been handed and raise some cash. Especially if you're a few years out from retirement. Nobody can peg exactly when a bubble will end, but valuations are extremely extended by historical measures, the market's propped up on nothing but weaponized option trading, stretched margin lending, and extreme retail engagement. History has shown many times that that is a toxic cocktail. Throw in inflationary pressures, very evident contagion in the Chinese real estate market, and the end of the biggest fiscal sugar high in history--I'm just saying that the future appears fraught with risk. I think the next decade will be a lesson for those who believe that one should always buy the dip, and that stocks always go up.

Well the Fed has put themselves in a real bind. The "transitory" thesis seems to be heading out the window. CPI continues to rise, all the while rates remain jammed at zero and easing continues at near record levels. Meanwhile, you have coinciding bubbles in rates, stocks, real estate and some commodities. With so much debt jammed into the system, the Fed no longer has much latitude to fight inflation, at least not without risking an implosion across several asset classes at once. Then again, inflation could do the work of its own accord, as corporations begin to suffer margin compression or demand destruction if end users won't stomach rapid price increases. The Fed will come under increasing pressure regarding its market friendly policies, which have jacked up the wealth of Fed members themselves, and the wealthiest 10% of Americans, increasingly at the expense of the middle and lower middle class. Pressure to pull forward rate hikes and cause a deflationary pop is going to increase in the next several months. Given the high correlation across asset classes, including crypto to equities, I would be sweating here if I had large exposure.

Got evacuated from the office for a bomb threat at Yale today. Interesting way to end the week.