Hoth

1 minute ago, WintersComing said:

Herpes model is a Holy Chit too!!


.

That's a MOG run. 

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

If one of us wines and the other whiskeys we’re good.   Oh I’m 71 years old-I most assuredly have learned all of the rules regarding this....

Oh, I misread. I thought you did Crown and then wine lol. 

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I ended up with an expensive bottle of Cabernet.   Maybe that’s the combo?

For a bad hangover?

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z GGEM 962.8mb

Where? Can't see it yet.

That look at 48 says SNE crush job to me, I don't care what the QPF maps say.

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Hour 54 low jumps east dont think it plays out like that

Yeah, still probably struggling with the nuances of the interaction with the n/s. The GFS isn't exactly known for handling these things with aplomb.

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Its amazing with a storm this intense how sharp the western edge is depicted.

Toss. I expect a wider precip field with the n/s interaction. I think the u-wind anomalies also argue more precip than shown.

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The pattern supports east zones, take advantage of it.

lol you are tblizzing this like a champ! I fully expect you to jack now.

1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said:

yes and then 1/26-27 with a foot plus

Still the heaviest snow I've ever seen. 5"+ per hour in that.

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Fairfield county too.

Only 4 below average snowfall winters this century.

Plenty of time to go for reversion  

It's just a crying shame we can't get the northern stream to come down like a 100 miles further west. It's sort of kicking right now instead of getting a nice clean phase. Let's hope we see some favorable developments in that arena today.

4 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

you guys in the Hamden/Wallingford zone have been on fire in this regime.....not far from Taunton in jps

I think we also jacked (for CT anyway) in Jan '11. That was a great few years.

1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said:

funny, they are just always a bit out of our grasp....not much 20-70 miles but its enough

If you want a silver lining, my area was modeled to get about 15" in Feb '13 and we wound up with closer to a meter. You never know with these things.

3 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

this is my worry

12z is big today IMO. Everything should be sampled, so we in western wastes will need another 50 mile tick...unless the storm does its thing of throwing a deform farther west than modeled of course.

The North American wv loop is just a garden of delights. You can see our southern stream pinwheeling through Missouri, our northern stream plunging down the Canadian prairie, our ridge pumping, our block pressing, and all sorts of interesting bits of vorticity pinwheeling around the skunked out corpse of last week's storm. Just beautiful.

Too bad Reg has been hopped up on opiates all winter. That's a sick solution.

This is one of those deals where the western folks will agonize and lean on the non-hydrostatic models, hoping they're sniffing out a lot of convection pumping heights and drawing this thing in closer. Not betting on that. Though Miller As do seem to nestle in at the last minute, the blocking and northern stream interaction probably limit that possibility.

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

0z canadian a pretty solid hit

Thing's jumping all over the place. Has a bit of that IVT look.

Dawn awakened. 

I don't think anyone could complain about this run.

Nam gon' Nam.

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I will be honest the GFS taking a step back has shaken me a bit. 

Do you remember what it did within 24 hours of the last event? Wouldn't give it too much weight. This is the model that had Feb '13 as a weak reflection scraping the Cape the day of the storm.

Looks northwest to me at 66.

Northern stream appears to be dropping in more quickly so far.

Wouldn't it be great to celebrate the 25th anniversary of one of the greatest winter storms in history with a crushing encore performance?