Hoth

Well, first off, congrats to NoPoles and Jimmy for finally catching a break. Second, my visual hallucinations continue. Looks to me like the n/s is already starting to slip down the backside of the s/s. I just keep thinking, "how is this not coming more west?"

If I had no access to model data and could only see the northern hemisphere water vapor loop, I'd think we were all in for a trouncing. But alas...

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nexrad Radar would pick up a pocket of deep yellow Coinsiding W splooge Over harwich

Yes, that's a very conditionally unstable atmosphere there.

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I like Arugulas at the Mohegun Sun

My brain totally replaced Arugulas with an anatomical feature. I was thinking, "I didn't know Electric Blue had opened a branch there."

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Some of us are. But Unfortunately it doesn’t work that way. 

Hey man, we'll always have the magic of the 2011 norlun and blizzard to warm the cockles of a heart. That was a magic week.

Maybe Sipperel will let our budding author in Harwich, MA, USA write a guest discussion for the next update? I would pay good money to read that.

4 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

plenty of time to send it east another 100 miles

Haha I can feel the schadenfreude. Like you're standing in your back yard trying to blow it out to Bermuda.

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Happy for James too, he deserves this one. 

Yeah, he's been patient this winter. Good luck, Jimmy.

Not as tucked. No surprise whatsoever. Good luck Ginx on east. Hope you guys pull a 3 footer. Don't forget the bread and milk.

It's fun to think that 25 years ago tonight, some the folks on this forum were probably doing this exact same thing...just without easy inter-web access to all these nifty tools.

Weaker might be a good thing.

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This system is not decaying....the deformation band will be hellacious.

Yes, this would be closer to Feb '13 where you're getting that maximum rate of intensification nearby and maxing out the dynamics.

Just now, Weenie said:

If there's even a 20 mile correction East half the forum will be on suicide watch

Nah, just rip some Crown, then polish it off with a tall cool Budweiser.

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can envision a scenario where someone in e MA pulls 3'. But not ready to go there publicly.

See what 00z does.

Would that require the ever-elusive stall?

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Just trying to get caught up with models for this and not sure what has been discussed as far as CT is concerned but 18z bufkit soundings were not impressive at all across much of CT (although IJD looked solid) but SGZ didn't look all that appealing to me. Plus I think a large chunk of the state is going to be smoking subsidence. 

Yes, welcome to the party. Grab a brew, don't cost nothin'.

Huge bomb. Congrats James.

Well, I've certainly been fooled before, but using my proprietary in-house, hi-res, fine mesh modeling system--aka squinting at Euro charts and water vapor loops--I think the Euro is OTL with the northern stream. On wv it looks west of the Euro depiction to me, and that block also looks to put up a pretty good fight. I think this drops in on a more north/south trajectory, but of course these could well just be weenie musings.

3 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Like NASA when they did their calculations in English instead of metric and blew up a space craft? Or was that when they screwed up HUbble?

I think it was a Mars lander. 

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Unusually high all or nothing potential with this for sure. Not sure how viable middle range snow totals would be with crap rates and light qpf. 

 

Yeah it all depends on that schizo interaction with the northern stream. Does it kick or cuddle?

6 minutes ago, Logan11 said:

Fortunately for a lot of you outside of southeast NE the Euro isn't much of a king anymore.  It could jump back west at 0Z.  For here it still has .5" from the IVT and convergence and that's all I'm ever getting so it's good.

It has been remarkably scattershot if you look back over several days. Several out past Bermuda, only to pop up to NS in the next run.

There has certainly been a bifurcation evident in the ensembles. You have one bigger camp phased, deep and tucked, and another weak, unphased and east. Not much middle ground there, so it all hinges on whether it phases properly or not. Higher than usual bust potential with this IMO.

6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

This is one time when you want the king to be dethroned.

If the GFS wins, what do we call the thread? "The Annointment of the Court Jester"?

Fire up the lawn thread. Let the gipsymothopolypse begin.

Shall the King abdicate one week after regaining its throne?

Ug-ly.