Jump to content

Hoth

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    9,903

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Hoth

    March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

    in New England

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    Well ... I put some "if" like conditional statements in that...  I'm not exactly saying that is what is going to happen... It's just that the present observations seem to match the west correction schemes, which in them selves bear well against theoretical thinking...

    It never sat well with me that the low was getting foisted so far out toward the outer banks, with that N/stream mechanics already intermingling with the total vorticity field... Phasing lows "spitting" them back out ...heh... odd.   Maybe -

    Sure, sure, the usual caveats apply. But its present behavior does seem well aligned with your expectations.

    March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

    in New England

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    I don't know how else to put this ... but it appears to me the models simply can't handle this system.

    It seems to be correcting west at < 12 hours on every cycle ...but ...soon as it gets to 15... the lows relocate way out at sea, only to correct west when that next run makes that 18 hour the 12...

    see the pattern... It's like this thing is going to close in on a BM transit in the models, AS it is happening.  That's what it's seems like to me this hour.

    "if" something like that were to rein true, then you got issue back toward NYC and ALB where I'm not sure people would be sufficiently warned.  Let alone... what the hell is happening on the eastern NE coastal plain in a situation like that!  jesus christ.

    Also, presently, WPC's surface low is west already (by a little) of these model fixes from 12z and 18z for 12 and 6 hours out, respectively - not sure if that's part and parcel of the above concern. 

    Also, national radar scope/loop shows a clear pivot point has evolved near the SE Jersey coast, with moderate snow now flashed over in the MA...

    The observation et al don't strike me as a system charging straight out to the Flemmish Cap.

    Couldn't have said it better myself. And how appropriate would it be for this thing to cleanly phase on the 25th and 130th anniversary of two of the greatest such occurrences in the annals.

    • Like 2

    March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

    in New England

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, CTSkywarn said:

    Although this particular storm hasn't verified yet, I'd like to make a suggestion that we dethrone the EURO as King, and instead make the NAM king.  The last few blockbusters the NAM has seemed to nail being far in advance.

    I'm not sure who makes these decisions, but it is just my suggestion.  Keeping close watch on this one on the Durham/North Madison line in central interior southern CT. :)

     

    Overthrow the king? Crown the court jester? Stars, hide your fires...

    March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

    in New England

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

    You can see in that water vapor imagery the blocking high up around Labrador that is what is going to drive this NW after it gets a bit past our latitude, and could be a factor in stalling it for a time south of us.

    It's a fascinating picture, the pumped up PNA, the block, the nosing in northern stream, the incipient baroclinic leaf. Beautiful stuff. Can't wait to see what it looks like tomorrow!

    • Like 2

    March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

    in New England

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

    Cranky means well, he is just slanted this storm because he guessed wrong, the storm is not moving east, if anything it is slowing down to a crawl currently as modeled way south of the benchmark, bands are already on our doorstep but we have pretty high dew point depressions to overcome before snow starts around 12am, latest GFS all snow, the latest HRRR is all snow to start a little mix with rain at the brunt of the storm passing to our east.  This is a cold storm, a cold atmosphere, everywhere I look the 850mb temps are around -6C to -12C, 925mb a little warmer than that, but the boundary layer issues will be overcome in the first few hours of heavy snows, as they occur before sunrise and planting a nice sound foundation of snow on the pavement will offset the warm sun angle non sense in March.  Also heavy snowfall rates could exceed 2"/hour maybe eclipse the Blizzard of 2005 in terms of heavy snowfall rates we received on Cape in that blizzard, and longevity of the bands could rival the 2015 Blizzard, in terms of ferocity, this storm will beat out those two any day of the week, with a pressure as low as 962mb in some regards to modeling as it passes east of Chatham, MA we could be looking at feet of snow accumulating over the Cape Cod and Dukes county.  Blizzard warning, I think NWS is conservative still, latest 18z GFS had no problems in my estimation, it brought almost 30" of snow to Cape Cod, with the 40-60" max just east of the Outer Cape.  Hurricane force wind gust likely 70-80mph is likely on the outer Cape and Nantucket.  This is the beast we measure all our snow by, the benchmark storm is coming, I can feel it in the air outside the house, it is rocking from the ENE and the air is cooling rapidly along with moistening rapidly

    Have fun, James. Gonna be memorable out there for sure.

×
×
  • Create New...