DeltaT13

2 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Where you at bud

Ok well now that I’m in the red stuff it’s the weirdest mix of enormous flakes and sleet. Much easier to drive in but I should probably go back north and get into the snow. 

This has to be some of the heaviest snow I’ve ever been in. Ever. Its very hard to drive but also incredible  

6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Any one else in WNY worried about that huge dry slot over Pittsburgh??? 

Most of the high res models showed it filling in quickly. 

2 minutes ago, vortmax said:

That's crazy! How'd you get the graph from your Tempest?

That graph was from my Davis unit. But you could probably download the tempest data and find it. 

40 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Trying to understand why the HRRR jumps the LP to the coast, weakens the primary, then re-strenghtens it, and ultimately merges the 2 again further west.  Anyone wanna explain that one??

Looking at these 500mb charts, you can see that the two waves finally begin merging right between 7pm and 1am. Look at how diffluent the upper levels are over central and western Pa in the second frame!  That drives a ton of surface based upward vertical motion and the surface low pressure surges NW. Not good for anyone east of the Genny.  Going to be some incredible rates for those who stay all snow though. 


 

3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

It's switching back and forth between sleet and heavy snow and then snow with sleet mixed in. 

You can see layers of sleet moving through that area with the correlation coefficient 

Less amped might mean further East and less mid level warming. We take?

1am to 7am looks to be our peak. This will be a long night and a sleepy Monday but that’s how she rolls.  If there wasn’t football on I’d be sleeping now. 

Snowboard is cleared. About 1 inch on the ground to start things off.  Snow is entering the southern tier. Very excited for tonight. 

10 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Adjusting his ruler...

He’s cross calibrating it to the Rochester airports ruler. It’s a tricky process. 

10 hours and 7500 miles later, my backyard weather station recorded the compression wave from the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption.  Pretty awesome.

Am I really going to chase this thing at 3am?  Seems like it could actually be worth it with crazy rates for a couple hours.  Look at the forcing on the RGEM

8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Are you concerned with the dryslot and sleet dynamics being so near us to our east? I’d love a little jog to the east. You are probably in the safer part of Monroe county. The rest of us are east siders 

It’s definitely on my mind but I think we get a 50 mile eastward shift during the final run up the coast. Also im hoping any warm layer is fleeting as it’s wraps into the backside of this. Genny valley is it the battle zone. 

1 hour ago, tim123 said:

Rgem crushes rochester. Entire area does good.

Yeah I feel like I’m in a perfect position here in KROC Even the tiniest jog East puts us squarely in the crosshairs.  

8 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Let’s go Pats 

I hope you never get snow again. 

48 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

You guys can get big storms. There were a lot of 2-3' totals with the April 2-3, 2005 snow storm.

That was a super elevation dependent storm if I’m remember it correctly. Had to be over 2000 feet for any snow.  

26 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

You guys can get big storms. There were a lot of 2-3' totals with the April 2-3, 2005 snow storm.

I have no idea what you’re thinking of but we didn’t even get an inch in April of 2005

29 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

It’s a decent jump East though. 

But look at how the isobars are actually broader and more spread out. The placement of little L isn’t all that critical compared to how the overall pressure gradient is worse for wny. 

BUF: 13

ROC: 14 (not including late lake effect)

SYR: 8

BGM: 4

39 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Me too. Been 5 years since Rochester had 12” inside of 24 hours. 

I can think of 2 that just barely fit that criteria in the last 4 years. But yeah, not many big hits in recent memory. This would be nice. 

2 minutes ago, vortmax said:

I'm not sure how the 12Z GFS keeps the same snow map with a stronger and more west track (basically a 982mb over BGM). Has to be mixing issues even to ROC.

This storm keeps getting deeper so perhaps dynamic cooling is now coming into play on the western side? 

3 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Full disc. For scale....large file so give it time... time sensitive...put it on faster loop...look lower left. 

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/basicLooper.pl?category=goeswestabifulldisk&regex=10p35um&title=GOES-West ABI Full Disk - 10.35 um - Band 13&time_drop=show

 

There will be hundreds of amazing gifs and loops in the coming days. I’ve already seen dozens of them on Twitter. What an incredible explosion. I saw peoples weather stations in Australia over 3000km picked up the compression wave on their barometers. 

4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I’ve asked this too many times, but is the 3k the hirez? 

Just remember the smallest grid spacing is the highest resolution. 

I’ve missed a few pages here so maybe someone mentioned this but I noticed something interesting tonight. A mere 36 hours ago this looked like a double phase with that nice little secondary kicker. By tonight there appears to be another obvious shortwave just upstream of the first kicker which seems to be creating a deeper and more negatively tilted phase. That is likely what is moving everything so far west.