DeltaT13

That was incredibly heavy snow, wow!  Honestly way heavier rates than anything I saw in Buffalo the other day. I was getting lost and disoriented on roads I’ve been on 100 times. 10 foot visibility at best during the peak. Really impressed. That was worth the price of admission. I took a couple vids but the camera does a great job of filtering out scattered light and noise so never really looks like much. I’ll see if any are decent after I eat. 

It is nuking!

1 minute ago, Buckeyes_Suck said:

Any other WNY guys think that Georgian Bay connection look juicy?

I hadn’t expected much after the front but I don’t know how we don’t get something with that kind of upstream seeding. 

Welp, off I go up 390 to blast through the band. It’ll be my 15 mins of fun tonight.  It definitely looks juicy albeit razor thin. I’m hoping to drive back south with it for a bit and hang in the meat of it. 

4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Yeah, unfortunately the frontal passage is usually very fast and almost always underperforms. I’m betting on a couple inches at most. We get a quick look at what Wolfie has for 12 hours. 

This, 100 percent.  The front grabs the band, intensifies it, moves it boldly due south and it evaporates like a fart in the wind about 1 hour later.  That 1 hour is usually fun but there is no stalling an arctic boundary on a Northerly flow.  We barely even get the scraps.

5 hours ago, Blue Moon said:

We're rocking right now in Oswego!

Btw, question for y'all: although the temp profile is below freezing from the CL to surface where I am, I have received all graupel so far. Is this because the wind is blowing graupel onshore from the lake nearby? I'm just a half mile from the lake, so it makes some sense to me if the sfc. temp above the lake is above freezing and graupel is what's falling there.

 

Thanks!

I think the convective nature of lake effect causes a lot of vertical mixing within the cloud as strong updrafts cycle snow that is currently falling back up into the portion of the cloud where water is condensing and snow is forming. The combination of these strong updrafts smashing snowflakes together along with a lot of Latent heat release eventually forms the graupel pellets.  That’s just my guess at least. I always see graupel in the really heavy bands though, including last week in Buffalo 

12 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Roc is covered good. Got delta on west side. Rochester dave on north and south side. Me and vort on east side. 

Good Wayne county spotters are important with the lack of radar coverage for lake effect events. Glad to have you two.  West of me is a huge hole. I don’t think we have or have ever had one Orleans member. 

9 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Where on coastline?

North Huron, right on a bluff in a house that just gets rocked.  

I’m still up on Lake Ontario until tomorrow and the wind is roaring. I’ve never spent time right on the lake during winter. It’s a whole different world and right up my alley. Some heavy squalls popping through every few minutes. 

59 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

What was the ratio with Buffalo’s recent event? I could be wrong. 

Probably 12-16:1. Didn’t seem like an outright fluff bomb. 

24 minutes ago, LVwxHistorian said:

The topic is ridiculous??    What's ridiculous is the forecast!!!   And in all the attacks and name calling, I still haven't gotten an answer to my question:  why did this guy stick his foot so far in his mouth?!!  

Sure you guys can really nail those high temperature forecasts but when it comes to something important, 

Again, you can’t figure this out yourself and you’re studying to be a meteorologist?  As a meteorologist, you don’t get to tell the public hey I really don’t have a lot of confidence in my forecast. You have to make a tough call and then stick to it. That’s why it’s a hard profession. I can just see you in a few years standing up there and telling the public “I really don’t know what’s going to happen tomorrow”, I’m sure you’ll be employed for a long time.  Smarten up. 

4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Just realized the metro Buffalo area has a lake RAIN band over it…that’s just cruel

Haha. Nah, that’s just the front, but it probably scooped a little moisture. Temps should be dropping real soon for you. 

The whole premise of this thread is ridiculous. So what, a snowfall forecast was missed for a couple cities on the east coast during a Nor’easter. Missing the position of the coastal front by a couple miles can happen, which sometimes unfortunately affects millions of people.  But there were also thousands of accurate forecasts for that event, probably close to 80-90 percent verified. So why bother pointing out the the few that failed, especially in a snowstorm where a missed snowfall amount rarely results in any significant loss of life. 

The fact that you can’t figure this out right now, as a supposed Met student working towards a masters and after ruminating on it for 26 years; tells me you don’t have the common sense or intelligence to succeed in this field. Stick to the drive through window….you obnoxious troll. 

18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 

Amazing sounding. Now picture where the lake temp is, around 5c. That’s a shit ton of CAPE to work with. 

This setup looks about as good as you could hope.  Extreme instability from deep Arctic air, upstream seeding from two separate bands on slightly different trajectories, that converge right at the south east end of a lake that has surface temps in the low 40s, and an approaching shortwave with increasing synoptic moisture.  I mean come on.  If you chase this one you better know what you’re doing.

12 hours ago, tim123 said:

Anyone with more knowledge than me can tell me what this sounding means in rochester? 

It shows a very dry atmosphere basically devoid of any synoptic moisture. It does show very steep low level lapse rates and thus a conditionally unstable boundary layer, but without moisture it doesn’t mean much.  Almost no directional wind shear but winds are nearly due west. Lake induced instability would be extreme under that. 

7 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

Yeah. Every time I say that folks disagree. But Rochester has had like 3 major ice storms in my life and they all had 1.25-2.5” ice accretion. We’ve had several lesser ones with under 2/3” without any major impacts. 
I suppose wind would change that. 

I think .5 inch is when the trouble starts. Anything over an inch is massive damage. You’re throwing around big numbers there. 2.5 inches is complete and utter destruction and probably a 100 year or more event. 
 

16 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

What's going on with you this week?

I mean yesterday ended up pretty decent and I’m still in snow showers tonight. I’m not full on ThM yet. Don’t put this on me. 

6 minutes ago, sferic said:

Is this from  Pro Tier 2 of RadarScope ? I have Pro Tier one and can't get those plumes

 

Thanks!

It’s just a setting if I remember. 

This is pretty impressive looking stuff tonight (for a NW flow). I’m kind of sad that of all night for me to be at this nice cabin my home appears to be getting really nice lake effect. You can’t win. 

Look at this steam plume on the West end of Erie. Definitely an unusual look to that band and how it diffuses and spreads out. 

The radar is overshooting me but that’s the location. The drifts on the north south roads were pretty awesome. 

I’m staying at a friends house on East Bay (southeast corner of Lake Ontario.)The house is on a bluff and the winds tonight have been amazing. Just constant 45mph winds with heavy snow squalls as the roll convection bands just keeps moving through. It’s a different world on the lake.   

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Well the pattern on the GFS looked as it good as it can for the lakes region..I counted about 5-6 N stream disturbances and a couple S Stream as well.. Trough after trough swinging through the entire run, we'll see how that goes lol

Reminds me of that pattern from February 2015.  Just wish we had a nice snowpack laid down to ride it out with.