Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse? in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania Posted March 6, 2022 11 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Full sun and blue sky here. Thinking this might not be as crazy in BUF. Interesting comment on the warmer air over the colder lake keeping the seiche and lake shore flooding aspect likely out of play today. Worst winds will likely run from just NE of BUF through Batavia and into ROC. Forecast soundings continue to show 80+ knots at 850MB in the warm sector, and 60 knots just off the deck. It`s unlikely we will fully mix to 850MB, but a few thousand feet of diurnal mixing with sunshine appears likely, tapping into the 60 knot flow available just off the surface. This will translate into gusts 55-60 MPH across much of the region, with a corridor of 65+ MPH gusts likely from the Niagara Frontier to Rochester. Unlike many of our wind events, the warm airmass over the cold lakes will result in a more stable boundary layer close to Lake Erie and Ontario, with the strongest wind gusts likely to be across inland areas and not close to the lakeshores. That’s why I’m happy I’m heading back to the ROC! But it’s the battle zone between those cold pockets and the inland areas that creates the deepest mixing IMO.