DeltaT13

Buffalo to roc looks firmly entrenched in the stable Lake Erie marine layer. 

45 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Seems very ripe for severe. 

You’re in a better position than I am.  Just outside the typical shadow 

44 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Seems very ripe for severe. 

CAPE values already over 4000j/kg at 10am but the ever present Lake Erie shadow worries me.  I would love to cash in on this energy with some massive storms today. 

Woke up to a wet bulb of 79 and a dewpoint of 78. Feels insane. 

That might be the most lightning I’ve ever seen around here too. Just crazy good. I recorded thousands of strikes. 

Wouldn’t be surprised to see some snow in the high peaks on Saturday morning. 

The amount of lightning to my west is just amazing tonight. Virtually constant for a full half hour now. I drove out to a wide open field. It’s been a great night. 

You know they are big storms when the radar in DC is easily picking them up. 

Man those storms that popped in genesee county exploded up to 55 thousand feet in a hurry.  There is a Ton of atmosphere in play tonight, but looks like I’m already out of luck unless I catch some rogue outflow action in the predawn hours. 

7 hours ago, vortmax said:

@DeltaT13 Think we're gonna see some nocturnal elevated convection tonight with the warm front?

AFD

 

Better chances for convection look to arrive tonight as the warm
front starts to enter the region. There should be a round of at
least scattered elevated convection which crosses the area and will
also have to keep an eye on a possible thunderstorm complex that may
drop southeast out of Canada.

Meso models definitely want to blow up some sort of huge convective complex tonight, but looks like it may initiate south of us. Some signs that there could be some propagation of storms north on outflow boundaries. Will definitely be a fun night to keep an eye on things. The fuel is certainly there. 

So much lightning in these storms.  Nearly continuous at times. 

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah we've been talking about it all day in discord. Had to be Ef2/3 in Gaylord. Wind gust over 80 MPH in Ontario with that Derecho. The lake likely protects me here.

That storm complex north of the lake was incredible. 

Actually over 4K!

5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

HRRR

The atmosphere sure is ripe. Crazy CAPES for us. Saw some 3000s popping up. 

14 hours ago, brentrich said:

Blue is slowly coming back. Back to cool/wet pattern. 

Another troll post from our resident loser. And he wonders why we don’t like him.  Lol, zero self awareness. 

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm not so sure. They've been pretty accurate since I've been following them. The mid range change dramatically in modeling quite quickly this time around. Next week was cold for a long time then switched to above. 

There must be something or someone that tracks this, I don't put a ton of stock in them.  Those two maps for the same time period came out 4 days apart and are polar opposites of each other.  4 days man....

There is no reason to take these maps seriously for any long range. 
 

This was posted on the 28th

This was posted today for the basically the same time period. 

We were off to a great start but the Lake breeze came in with a big fat “No spring for you!!”  I have a bittersweet relationship with this lake. 

11 minutes ago, cny rider said:

What's the connection?

 

The connection is that you quoted a troll with no weather knowledge.   STOP FEEDING THE MORONS AROUND HERE!

23 hours ago, winter_rules said:

FWIW I’m just joking with my whine about shower/brushing teeth.  But yes, we are on well water.  We still have water (whatever is left in the hydropneumatic tank) for now.  We can refill our toilets from the pond and creek.    The kids also brought snow into the bathtub that actually resulted in quite a bit of water.  We can also brush our teeth and get clean water down the road at my parents who get their water from a spring on the hill that flows to the house by gravity. 
 

We lose power regularly, but this is the first time I can recall going beyond 24hrs. I consider a generator often, but then look at the never ending cost and maintenance and the fact that I’m in my mid-30s and don’t ever recall this kind of situation.  It’s a lot of money to just sit there for years and then possibly use it for a day or two.  The neighboring farm has one that runs off the PTO of a tractor and that is interesting to me. The generator part does not need much maintenance, and if the engine component is actually a tractor that gets used regularly for other things, then it’s less of a hassle.  I’ll be looking into that option when things return to normal-ish. 

I bought a Champion generator in 2012 when Superstorm Sandy was heading our way, it cost about $400.  I've only used it three times since then.  I run it about twice a year for 15 minutes and put Stabil in the gasoline for long term storage. I've changed the oil twice in that time.  There has been virtually no additional cost or maintenance, or at least extremely minimal maintenance.  It just sits in the back corner of the garage ready to go.  Pretty much as easy as it gets to have that kind of peace of mind.  I think you are over complicating this in your head.  

Storm recap map. You can see carol obviously juiced her numbers; as usual….with a tiny red dot on the Tug being the most snow of anywhere in the whole Northeast, (eye roll).

There is a lot more snow cover than I realized from this last storm, especially in the Western Southern Tier.  Even some snow on the higher ridges in Virginia.  This is a really nice loop, check it out before it gets too cloudy.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

1 hour ago, winter_rules said:

Can my family of 5 come shower and brush our teeth at your house?  
 

Back at work with electric and cell service.  Still no power at home and in most locations between home and Binghamton.  More than half of the gas stations I pass are closed with no power…..loooong lines at those with power and functional pumps. Passed many lineman trucks heading east on I88 coming in to help.  At least one was from Michigan.  

No action near our house yet so I’m hoping for warm and sun today to help warm up the house for us.  That’s the one good thing about this storm….losing power (heat, water, etc) in late April is very different than losing it in January! 

I assume you're on well water?  Seems like having a generator would be a top priority if a power outage cuts off even your water.  If you love extreme weather, you gotta be one step ahead of it!   Good luck with the cleanup! 

1 hour ago, winter_rules said:

We had a dusting at 11:15pm, 10 inches of white concrete on the ground at 2:15am.  Also broke a bunch of branches and trees, and we haven’t had power since about 2:30am, not expecting it back for quite a while.  Maybe tomorrow?  

A big branch took down our overhead electric service and pulled the pole to a 45° angle rather than pull the mount off the house!  

The sound from 2am to about Noon when I left for work was wild.  At 2am we could hear branches snapping (and the following muffled crash down to the ground) in the dark every 1-2 minutes all around us.  By Noon it had slowed down to probably one every 5 minutes.  I started trying to put broken branches into a pile but quit after two nearby branches broke overhead and came crashing down.  Not cool.  We have quite a mess to clean up.  

Nice recap!  I must say I'm a bit jealous.  I haven't seen a late season storm like this in 30 years for my area on the lake plain.  

So now two of the largest synoptic events in all of upstate over the last couple of years have happened in Binghamton.  Good grief....what is the world coming to.