Typhoon Tip

What strikes me as remarkable about that synoptic evolution (as it is implied by the single frame...) is that the counter-point geopotential positive anomalies in the west are an anchored ridge exceeding 590 heights at the core ...more importantly, pooling off thickness well over 570 dm over a vast area of the SW. 850 mb are 20 to 30C ! That chart's set up exceeds the "normal" + PNAP couplet variance by probably a solid 20 decameters, which is sort of a secondary (delta) ...where the gradient is excessive. That's fascinating. Also, ...interestingly, excessive gradient plagued much our winter (to the extent of detriment), yet here we are with a cold unrelenting attack on New England... Maybe there's some kind of physical connection here (forcing) on hemispheric scales.

yeah ...and another thing ... we should remember that sometimes these pattern changes can be "rushed in" ? ..so to speak - They may very well be valid, and pan out in one way shape form or another but, the models seem to latch onto background physical processes in the system and bring those to bear too quickly - they'll be right about the transition but it takes place later on. there's that too -

Only the Euro could do this ... Raise heights for 24 consecutive hours while crappening the weather the whole way - wow. Man, this spring is just got a f'n x on it's back

I like how between 168 and 192 hours, the vortex axis or rotation moves 0 latitude and longitude ...while simultaneously the ridge axis that starts out over the G. Lakes move E to roughly NYS... It pulls that off by filling the vortex rather than moving it away. Talks about hell-bent to keep conditions specifically schitty - it's found a way to do so without violating the principles of Atmospheric physics - haha.

Yeah the idea of coastal system affecting the weekend is gathering confidence... Multiple operational and ensemble member therein are supportive with the western end of the negative height anomaly first bifurcating to the N of the GL, then descending toward upper M/A.. classic multi-day behavior under westerly NAO blocking actually ... That Euro is certainly the most entertaining ...being unwilling to completely shut the book on winter suggestion (again..) - seemed to get away from that (at last) for a couple days, now comes back with it. Possible - can we get a synoptic snow later than 1977. Stay tuned! Otherwise, the theme for the week has changed imo... Thursday and Friday (light winds away from the coast + low deep layer RH + 850 mb temperatures above 0 C) = 65 to 72 F regardless of machine numbers - which tend to come in dimmed over reality in that sort of synoptic set up... Pretty clear difference compared to the 10 day stint scenario that was feared. Then the coastal ...after which ..I could see things going warmer, but I don't know where "massive" came in... plus, the subjectivity of that term is useless, too. Firstly, the idea of the pattern changing ~ the 20th is still in tact. The impetus there is "approximately" ... This 'art' of distant forecasting has never been about sticking with an exact dates anyway - that's always been, going back years of social weather-related media, an utter base-less invention/requirement by those looking from the outside, into the realm of what it takes to construct these outlooks, who don't have a f'n clue and therefore shouldn't even be around the establishment of standards ... Secondly, it's plausible it's all moot anyway...? If Friday gets to 72, what's left in that discussion anyway?

What are you looking over that goes out to the 20th ? You responded to a comment I made about 7 days from now - the 20th is 12 days away; half of month for all intents - I was referring to that.

wrong -

subtle point of contention but .. it'll be interesting (for me) to see how this 12z Euro run charts out .. the last couple of cycles of the Euro really want to herald the end of the cold plague by D6..7 or so. the entire circulation medium breaks toward bulging eastern rising heights.. yet the GFS wants no part of it. in fact this 12z run has the worst of the cold now centered at 170 or so hours, with a deep trough anomaly still pinned in place.

this is in all a very typical behavior for troughs that end up pinned beneath west-based NAOs... they get "squished" and elongate... bifurcating into smaller nodes... the western one then subsumes a pacific S/W/ passing underneath and viola! ...coastal. yeah, i've seen nor'easters during every month of the year...it's just at matter of going from 1008 mb to 989 in 12 hours, which is technically like bombogen rates...doing so with comparatively weaker dynamics/sickly mid spring baroclinic normalization - okay... we'll see

oh i think it's likely evolve but that 12z oper. ...i'm just wondering if that tendency to over-evolve trough over the east isn't rearing it's head here.

huge mass discontinuity on this 12z run... After a coastal the whole conus steeps in late spring/early summer type heat. I also thing that there's fair chance that coastal is overdone -

according to various ptype sources there must be cat-paws and grapple dappled upon the terrain of upstate NY ...if not fatties thrown in there... --------------------------- I was looking at NWS' four major climate results for the fist week of the month and they're all over the place. But if the numbers were added up together/4 you sort of bootleg the 'expected average' result so far using the aggregate. It will be interesting to revisit these numbers a week from now and see where they stand. Here's my hypothesis (destined not to transpire for the sole reason that I advanced it...) ...May ends up above average come June 1. The reason I suggest this is that this cold pattern seems to want to behave like all others since we passed through the "climate warming event horizon"; an uneventful silent circumstance, some decades ago, where we seem to have lost the ability to actually sustain cold years. Since then, ...it gets cold in spikes that are comparatively shorter in duration as the primary means to offset a systemically persistent warming. As the old addage goes... climate doesn't dictate the dailies and that is true... However, that statement sort of belies the truth that the dailies should eventually probablistically favor/ reflect the changing climate ... Digressions aside, my thinking is that as soon as we sans the blocking tendencies (and we don't even have to lose that entirely at this time of year...just remove the excessive negative SD and the block influence decays) the lower troposphere will bounce back pretty quickly. I still see that as happening around the 20th ... and then if we had ten straight days to close out the month that for all we know could even be a mass-field sort of seesaw scenario, we could cook and bring it back over the top. I'm suspicious we could clad bounce above normal in that time span, too. There are indications/subtleties in the operational runs and ensemble to put up a ridge in the east, and given to residence for cooling patterns ...we should term this puppy by then anyway, and then the system compensates.

oh ...didn't see this post. yup! ...I just got done s'plainin' the same thing

actually...right out through D10 or 12, too... I almost wonder if this will set up like it did ...shoot I want to say 2011, where I distinctly recall fighting cool like verification and tendencies that spring. Then, this big heat plume surged N-NE out of the SW/MV into the OV and wrapped around the N side of a newly burgeoning SE ridge, ...came E across NYS and the Euro operational had like 7 contours of thickness packed and oriented north to south along a warm boundary at 12z... By later that same afternoon, dawned mid 50s had soared to near 90 with DP too - it was like the winter passed into summer through a diurnal doorway. I could see this doing something similar where we are plague with cold anomalies... and then in two days its gone ... somewhere between the 15th and 20th.

heh.... just so long as 'as we thought' includes the high confidence chillier than normal annoying not install weather that will set in for most of this week, first

Seems the recent trends in guidance is to reduce the magnitude of the cold anomaly, both in duration and extent. Also, the structure/synoptic evolution of the flow has changed, too. It's more elongated and both the Euro and GFS now keeping the core heights N of our latitude, albeit narrowly - still quite a bit different than taking episodic retrograde mid and upper level -2 or -3 SD height cores underneath Long Island ... for the snow part of those previous "hints" we needed that to work out. My hat-tipped thinking is that by the 20th of May we may blast into summer - or at least...sans these "blue contoured" thickness plumes ...probably until next October. The usual caveats of the extended apply ... but beyond the D5-7 range, the GFS with a huge 570 dm thickness air mass sprawling the eastern half of the conus clear to the 40th parallel and knocking on the door of New Englad. -PNAP too with eastern ridging. Euro doesn't go out that far for the freebie disadvantaged poor class of lowly dreamy-eyed provincials but... knowing how things typically work you can tell it's on the verge of something similar. Tele's really should be about useless given 'normalcy' by mid May ...so we may be on our own with assessing longer term pattern tendencies - Fwiw, presently the GEFs derivatives are flat lining the PNA within the next couple few days...and the NAO domain is too by the end of this next week... So it the "pattern" change suggested above could be over-compensating ... Bottom line, there's hope that we won't have to trash the whole month!

Not sure on the PM thing... I don't normally use that feature in recent years on this forum.. There may have been tech changes and so forth with the interface that I am unfamiliar. It's really about inheriting previous user-ship into a completely different web/social media outlet, to which I am apart. So...not sure what to tell you on the PM. Thanks on the DG circuitry but...honestly, why? I mean... I have a circle of bros and we play from time to time but we're all 30s and 40s year-olds with families and lives at this point; we don't get out that often anymore, and it's not really devoted hobby really. It's a fun activity/sport, sure. More power to DGers in CT though!

Tele's from the GEF camp actually signal SOMEthing different sets in by the 20th, too -

heh, this 18z run's a lot different in the late middle/extended ranges... Yar, it gets chilly D3.5 through 7 but after that, the previous look is shattered significantly ... with a few days actually quite passable. Could it be? the dodging of the bullet - Too early to tell ..but, the run even tries to throw up the season's first heat dome in the nation's midriff states out there around 9+

I don't know what the GFS' deal is. That model really tries one's ability to think that thing isn't deliberately engineered to show the ****tiest solution imaginable relative to consensus. I noticed that all goddamn winter and it's doing it now the other direction heading into summer. I don't know how NCEP pulled that off... If you want it to snow, that model always shows the least. If you want it to be warm, it's always the coldest. It's like no matter what, it's always modeling the opposite of what you want - period. Somewhere in there there's a f'n afterthought of atmospheric dynamics. Jeezus H - What does what you want have to do with atmospheric dynamics?! Yet, NCEP apparently thinks that so long as they put out something disappointing they score better with the product spectrum?? Here's my theory: ...they have Russian spies embedded in the forums of the weather world, ...pinging back the tenor of the consensus desire to NCEP, and they have all these coefficient butt-bang variables sprinkled about their Navier-Stokes thermal and fluid dynamical equations - and it's just a matter of setting the bang and running the models. Then I realized wait... those are 240 through 350 hour model charts - heh...

well... I was thinking about Hershey but I wasn't sure how I was supposed to make the leap from Rhea to that - I suppose just looking at the weather charts should have lent a clue, huh - lol

dude I'm tryin' - don't say anything ...I wanna figure this out

I have to admit ... no idea what is meant by a "wheel of rhea" Rhea is a type bird? but ...other than that... interesting. anywho, I saw improvements over night in the longevity and depth of the trough/cut-off and attending cold... May be too early to establish as real trends, but ...let's keep in mind that the whole bag is really stressing climo in order to be "that bad" so... some backing off that scale and degree of horror could work.

I thought/saw that gyre as splitting up by D8 with part going west, and east, leaving us with a chance for a sneaky gem buried in there... After it there is another cold shot but...my guess is that modulates a bit less in the days to come. heh we'll see -

Yeah...those were the truly abysmal days of that incredible stretch of injustice to all that is good and decent - That's precisely how I remember it, too. I was in Acton and I remember specifically the days were 46 to 49 F, and the nights were like 39 or 40 ...so the total departures cheated/shirked us on how cold it "felt" too - pure evil. hahhaha. The models modulated things overnight since I mused that post though. I wrote about it very recently this morning. I haven't seen any 12z guidance but the duration (this time) appears split in this recent cycle, which is a far cry better than end-to-end misery for 20 days or whatever. Honestly...driving around mid day errands and I was thinking that if things work out that way, I'm actually on-board with solid soaking or two... Put the drought debate to bed but good -