Typhoon Tip

I dunno if any of that's going to happen but that 06z GFS was a hoot. Clipper, then whatever GHD ... then, two SW flow snow burst events, finally ending in a cold available coastal. None of which were majors but kinda like shouldn't be there? the clipper and GHD are okay but those latter ones. The interesting nerd aspect, all's during a -PNA/+NAO It doesn't have a lot of support from the other guidance ... or the super synoptic indicators for that matter, but I guess it's not physically impossible either.

no it sucks... nothing' to see here - ha Imagine if this happen now, with the modernity of physical society: "People in New England, and in its geological extension southward through Long Island, have felt small earthquakes and suffered damage from infrequent larger ones since colonial times. Moderately damaging earthquakes strike somewhere in the region every few decades, and smaller earthquakes are felt roughly twice a year. The Boston area was damaged three times within 28 years in the middle 1700's, and New York City was damaged in 1737 and 1884. The largest known New England earthquakes occurred in 1638 (magnitude 6.5) in Vermont or New Hampshire, and in 1755 (magnitude 5.8) offshore from Cape Ann northeast of Boston. The Cape Ann earthquake caused severe damage to the Boston waterfront. The most recent New England earthquake to cause moderate damage occurred in 1940 (magnitude 5.6) in central New Hampshire."

re-assessed to 3.9

Same with me... I went out to the Bay area back in 2021 and hoped I would get to experience the shake - nothing. Yet, there's been a few of these minor rattlers in recent decade right locally. I hadn't felt any of them tho. This one, I did, and it was first to finally feel that. It's definitely a different vibe to the type of vibration from the freight trains going by - which unfortunately limits the re-sail-abiility of my house but that's a different matter. Anyway, you get the distinct impression of having 0 control/ 'what's happening'

There it is! M 4.1 - 13 km SE of York Harbor, Maine

Went to text and there were already messages waiting ... Hudson NH was rattling too -

i believe i just felt a quake interesting -

It's emerging as transient. Probably a day or two of warm sector, less like a "synoptic heat burst" Which can get pretty darn balmy in a pre diabetic era of CC, heh. But it won't be a 5 days of 68 with two days near 80 like 2017. It's more of a canonical EPO response across the continent. There's a pretty strong -EPO out there, and with the under pinning PNA in negative phase, the concurrence of those two index modes favors initial height falls down stream of the NE Pac/Alaskan region positive hgt anomaly to be the out west, first, version... Eventually the cold loading would spread throughout Canada and dip down in the NP ... prior to then coming east and that's when we get a plausible winter reclaiming a week ... perhaps the 7th thru the 13th estimate? As far as the GHD event in the foreground, the problem with this one can be identified well by the general scope. It is being ejected across the continent straight into a region that is loosing support for it ever being there. The onset of -PNA, is clue as well... the region E is entering a negative interference. It's why the S/W space is weakening as it comes. It's no longer really even identifiable S of NS after exiting the upper m/a in some guidance renditions. But there's a race between conserving, vs how fast it damps out to the point where it's nothing.

Heh ... didn't read back enough on that one. I saw "...down there" and impulsively donkeyed. haha

That makes 1 of us

If the clipper takes the GFS route, I personally doubt 40 on Wed N of the Pike and probably not HFD - PVD. I'm not even sure how to interpret the Euro .. it's almost like it's too strong with a primary to develop a low in CC Bay like the GFS does ...so it snows through 12z in a burst, then goes 37F with west wind that smells like rain but's really just rotted polar air for a few hours.

there's another solution - you could disallow X reposts ... hahaha

Yup… this event’s got some serious resiliency in the runs … It’s sub index at this point but who cares. It won’t be denied GFS still promoting a thaw soon after but it’s real tenuous looking

It’s moving through the proverbial meat grinder with that oppressive jet careening by (N/stream). Unless that alleviates … that’s what it would take But I don’t know if the general wholesale synoptic handling is even right …

Thread that needle…. it’s like we’re coming full circle with this potential Or trying to

This 18z GFS was suggestive out there Somewhat of colder run. Front’s south of prior. Has it parked below with several waves running along it Feb 4 thru 6 … skimpy on QPF but the generalized overview is all that matters at this range. it’s just one run tho. Been meandering that frontal position every run. In a way … icing scenarios are the ultimate needle thread. Unless it’s something truly rare and awesome like 1998 - very large area. This one would be narrow

No idea ... but TX across the snow storm region look to balloon into seasonal change in the first week of Feb. Some of those place that got the snow may be nearing 80

I'll tell you though .. .spring is sprung in the deep south though.

I see a significant transition gate, going through timed for the 2nd. That was originally progged as a potential winter storm, 4 or so days ago, but has since morphed into what looks now like a symbolic, if not turning into a literal, warm front. It appears now as though whatever that is, it's first of all lifting too far NW - that's in conjunction with the SE ridge becoming more robust in recent guidance trends... It's bullying in these operational guidance so fast that the ambient polar boundary is immediately reassigned to the ST Law to IND type axis. It's like in principle it is acting more like a warm front. It goes by, and there's zip cold and a west wind under +6 850 mb ... appears to be a big thaw - or at least significant one. So those days between the 2nd and say the 8th... That could even heat burst if the ridge gets any more dominating. For now, there's some uncertainty about the EPO in that week. The models are trying to reassert really fast - not sure on that.

I'm on the fence with all this

Pensacola Florida has 8.9” of snow since December 1 NYC, 5.8”

Not impossible ... At the moment, not likely. Just not impossible. Right now the GFS is straight down the Pike. There's even a hint at a narrow Miller B thing there - which is probably the model being too sensitive. The Euro's more nucleated with the low while also slightly N with the track. That's as is...but, want to point out that this is a pure N/stream "little critter" ... sometimes they bite. It's hard to know which one's will over-achieve, versus not. Most don't. But once in a blue moon ...heh I remember back in ... 2003 I wanna say. I was working a db job down on the 900 block of comm ave in Boston ( just up from Fenway district), on a cold day in February that was supposed to have some WINDEX in the area. Unremarkable. But by mid afternoon and 11" later in an emergency winter storm warning, that little critter had other intentions. This incredibly heavy frontogen band just snowed 1/8 mi vis for 3 hours ... I was living in Winchester, Ma at that time, which is about 10 mi N of Boston up 93 - when I got home that evening there was about 2.5" So it was very localized. This is where the goods are as of this morning as per the GFS. There's room there for this to be a biter just yet.

Brian ... can you disallow X reposts?

no sorry. I knew folks were going to forget the CMC main operational model showing all those solutions similar to what actually took place, at d5 --> 3, when other guidance were at times not even on the map. RGEM is something else ...

What we just came through, back in last December was actually a bit more extreme on these ensemble canvases than this -