Typhoon Tip

i know what you're saying ... i'm not talking about the concept of being in a good position at this far out in time... i'm just comparing the eps ens that i provided above, to that scalar gefs... the latter is clear whiff as is. the comparison is interesting

impressive compared to the utterly non-existence portrayed by the gefs ... this below is a 972 low tucked into the bite region of ny, with a ton of cold air over alb-lower 'hampshire ... it's probably mix contention eventually but this probably is a lot of snow/wind prior...

this euro run is suspect beyond 120 hours for me. the ridge barely progressing e, off an approximate 100 to 110w longitudinal axis, yet the s/w's are racing e and stretching the flow like that - mm it's more likely those s/w slow down. not sure about amplitude and what that means as far as any cyclogen, but that former practice is suspect.

i was looking at the ggem? - sorry you guys might have been gfsing

ha! i'd trophy case the 156 ggem's 500 mb heights and sfc

that's the one we're supposed to be following ... this 19/20th's n/stream bullying in routine is new... we're still not completely shedding the wave space contention problem, in addition to the western ridge stuff... altho there may be a relationship.

fwiw - ggem looks better comparing interval 132 hrs to 144 from 00z

might have to "boxing day bomb" this thing

Thanks, Will ! ...i was looking things over and wondering oh no, what kind of damage control is it gonna take in here this morning... so, i was going to tell folks that the EPS (and GEPs both actually ) were not only fine for 170+ hours, but actually trended better, too - low and behold, we can always count on you lol yeah, i also want to add that the last 2 cycles of the operational guidance regressed on the western ridge amplitude. it's not even subtle. it's on the order 6 to 10 dem through the arc axis. quick example, set this recent 18z gfs next to the 00z gfs, and compare the ridge amplitude. bigger western ridge, more digging in the east. i don't know if that is going to all be the case, but something is neg interfering with the western heights at a larger scope/picture. it may be the the phase 5 mjo - tho it is not a pattern maker, it is a pattern modulator. so its contribution really shouldn't be ignored entirely. it can be overcome. this isn't the first rodeo with western heights not cooperating in the late mid range, either.

For what it’s probably not worth to anybody… the jma model was about to detonate a very intense northern stream bomb. the model just doesn’t quite go out far enough, but if you extrapolate this, that’s what you’re gonna end up with

ha... i was just telling prismshine ? i was just tell that poster that the gfs may yet surge the ridge - you know, it might help if i actually go look at the gfs run now, huh ..it a'ight .. that chart makes the point well enough

it's like the gfs is trying to predict the ayer ma gravity gyna wedge

i don't think it does 'completely' ... it may reduce and still play a role, too in fact, i'm still not entirely happy with the scaling of the western ridge as the d(mass field) doesn't appear to satisfy the +d(pna) forcing. that's code for it should be bigger. the ens means of the euro and to some extend the GEFs have been routinely better formed/fitting. the operational runs may yet surge that more... then, it's not impossible that the operational models be destined to a subsume phasing. that's when you have a southern wave - not necessarily the same as a subtropical jet born disturbance ...but just a wave s running underneath...; upstream ridge burst forces the n/stream to 'tuck' a powerful diving jet into the backs side of s system, and it's much more mechanically powerful wave by virtue of planetary aspects - it's like a black hole devouring a stellar object: the former eats the energy and becomes that much stronger. i love space metaphors ...haha. but in doing so, a monster is born and there's little to no trace of the original s wave left on the charts... just a deep low taking liberties writing there - i'm not saying this is a subsumer, but anytime i see a s wave eject and that upstream ridge surge forcing a n/stream to dive like that, that is precarioius

a trend that i mentioned to you a couple hours ago when describing the euro evolution. so we have both guidance heading toward committing on the 22n instead of the 20th... which preferentially in these index correction events, there is more typically going to be one restoring event... if the pattern reloads, that's when you get your repeating maintenance/sub-index scale type fun - but that's for later on if need be Euro: "the first is the lead wave more focused on the 20th is weaker by a factor of 2 (est)... it's smaller and less deep compared to the 00z per intervals as it runs out ahead. the second aspect that leaped out is the wave spacing between the 20th and the second opening up in the 12z compared to the 00z... bigger gap in other words if the lead (20th) continues to attenuate then as Will pointed out, there's less b-c escape which of course services the latter amplitude. "

it may normalize out into a cf ... but we have to be careful not to allow it ( ...because... we can do that, right ? ) to advect the moisture away. Will might recall but there were a series of storms in that 2000s modeling era that were always 'dry bombs' with a low anchored west, and the moisture and convective feed back low ripping the system open east... but as the systems neared in time, the the feedback low gave up to where the better deep layer instability and left entrance jet region closer to the coast. not exactly what is happening here but the euro sort of hinted similarly

well geez ...if we want to add base ball, that's been going on since ( ironically ) tom brady left.

eps = somewhat intriguing gefs = piece of shit geps = 974 mb on block island that oughta clear things up a bunch -

if all other excitement fails at least the eps has a tc moving into new orleans at d9.5

looks like the 12z eps is buckin' for a marginal mixy deal around the 14th ...weak, but 850's are 0c ish with a wave coming through in this mean edit, never mind ...this was my usual idiocy with dates working against me... it's in fact the zygote circulation for the 20th i was looking at...

to your point, i was comparing the 00z, 170 ish frames with the 12z and two notable difference pop right out. the first is the lead wave more focused on the 20th is weaker by a factor of 2 (est)... it's smaller and less deep compared to the 00z per intervals as it runs out ahead. the second aspect that leaped out is the wave spacing between the 20th and the second opening up in the 12z compared to the 00z... bigger gap in other words if the lead (20th) continues to attenuate then as Will pointed out, there's less b-c escape which of course services the latter amplitude. but honestly guys... this wave spacing shit started 2.5 days ago ( roughly...) and with no real trend to figure it out. or, maybe it just goes on to neg head oblivion wasted terrific pattern change into a storm mode.

i posted this in the other thread but i encourage those with real curiosity to have a look. the 00z eps evolution shows at least one plausible result where it ends up with better 500 mb phasing of these these two contentious wave spaces. i don't believe the gfs handling is very realistic - not a knock on the model at 180 hours ...no. but the lead wave is moving too fast in the flow.. if the x coordinate velocity exceeds the y field too much, bipass occurs. not sure the is wholesale right. i've noted in the past that the gfs has a velocity bias ( which is masked by a flow that is also that way ...making it difficult to parse out which is which...) the eps has a slower x coordinate velocity ( wave motion...), so it allows the waves to harmonize/coalesce near pa in that solution. the member mean being positioned over ne ny is prooobably more owing to lack of lower cold but details details

ggem's classic wave space negative interference. gfs looks unrealistic having both the way it conserves them

i was kind of hoping to convert the title of this thing to a 'monitor' status, so that the entire life cycle of inception to realization can be archived - obviously, it's less likely to promote to monitoring if a system doesn't meet with minimal play-ground political guidelines ...hahaha. no but we seldom get an a to zinc opportunity to catch the whole story. the pattern recognition patter is hugely successful/high confidence for being the case... but we both know that good patterns sometimes f-over regions, too.

for this audience ? apparently if there isn't an actual illustration on the physical charts, quite a bit actually -

this run continues with two important wave spaces embedded in the larger total hemispheric amplification scenario. it's tying for both's identity - the lead on the 20th, then this (abv) cuts off and does a rather unrealistic whatever by the 22nd... it's highly suspect to me. i'm waiting for the other shoe to fall on one or those being dominant still ... but hell, stranger things have happened