Typhoon Tip

yeah, ( lol ) I just posted that exact thing..

The Euro may have tuck too, but it's so cold really N of the Pike that it may be sort of lost/absorbed in it

Agreed... How that translates to the ptype gradient ..heh. But I feel ( still) that the correction vector for all this mess is still S oriented. "weather" that ultimately happens, it's more like leaning. The problem I'm also having is long years of experience related to seeing 1030 polar high with teens over single digit T/DP hanging over our latitudes by drain distance, with low pressure - however weak almost doesn't matter - rippling by to the S of us. Yet we stagnate at 33 F ... ? I don't know. The GGEM has a coherent tuck evidenced by the 2-meter, Thurs afternoon - the model may suck by street cred but this seems like a dead ringer for that. Maybe what you said, is just unique enough for a cold bust.

It's lala range anyway but ... that solution is also shirking D.C. to Maine out of a 30" history bomb

All I needed to do is op-ed an 8 paragraph rant about 'pumping the 28th breaks' because the NAO was backing off ( this morning...) and now during the day ... we start going back the other direction. see? all one has to do is bitch and complain and there we go. LOL No but that's about an ideal look for 'balancing' the -PNA with -NAO. It's a narrow window that we really need to work out, for this recouperation idea... Otherwise, heh... But it is what it is and we'll see. That said, the 28th is still a dead deal to us, because this NAO is just that delay I was talking about. So, whence we arrive upon the 28th, does that then get delayed again? God ...I hate the f'ing index

All we're doing in here it pointing out the very typical oscillations that happen to everything that is ever modeled. Step back and look at it from Orbit...this has been solid and relatively unalterable since a day ...day and half ago. Every storm that is ever modeled, no matter the scale or the intensity, varies just like this - typically... no one notices, because they are safely inside the threat area where such minuscule movement are irrelevant ... thus, unnoticed. In other words, it's unlikely to be an indication of this moving en mass N or S from here on out. These 'giga' motions are going to take place in the guidance output, right through verification. You'll know if this wholesale makes a definitive move.

mm... all years combined perhaps. Our arena this year and the antecedent/leading indicators wholesale, changes that idea a bit in my mind. These 70+ rolling warm balls through the M/A are may just be a harbinger - Or not ...just sayn'

no idea

hooo... (exhaling) we can relax. The JMA saves the d-drip dosing

..heh... 'cool' ? what I just described transcends a 'cool spring' ...and that's what we may end up with, a sort of protracted May 2005 deal. Not all SSW --> -AO effect our hemisphere the same...some may not show up, some do really bad like in 2005 ... But, we're talking physically raining in cold air... never stopping, not just cool. If that's what is really coveted, okay - but just so's we're clear

I don't really care if it snows or not in that sense. I'm interested if snow is falling...or may do so, Sure. But it doesn't hit me that hard if it doesn't work out - especially post Feb 15 any year. I like intersting events for a spectrum of the weather output. I think it's cool when you get IP aggregation... several of them frozen together... they're loud and bounce and shatter... Neat to see.

I realize y'all in that Pike latitude really are straining and I'm sensitive to that ...but this looks like from Ray's area to myself/FIT gets a solid 5 hours of straight moderate 1/2 to 1/3 mi vis snow before we IP on that run. That's actually more than I anticipated at this threads inception along Rt 2. ...But, no one can be held accountable in the CH scenarios... the gradient is so finite that it's beneath the resolution of the best tech and minds... imho. ha.

y'allz funny mu'fuggers Actually, this 12z run of the Euro ...I'm telling you, you can see more NAO exertion comparing 156 to the previous 168 ... f ...here that's why this run is better. It's subtle, but you can see how the 12z retros the NAO just a little over the previous cycle ( left ) and immediately ...the hemisphere responds by forcing the Lakes cutter more E. It just takes that little bit of adjusting and it forces the activity here, South. which ( now to confuse you ...) isn't really the NAO forcing it - it gives that allusion. It's really just that these features move as an integral at large scales, or tend to.

seldom do I engage in this sort of discussion but .... really? Serious Q: do you like 40 F mist in between 38 F straight rain nor'easters... always relentlessly every day ?

I like the appeal outside today though ...least around here. We got the old 'under the radar' grits and flurries going... it's a solid fireplace afternoon. Also, that looks somewhat convective out there in NYS ...wonder if we can't get a burst later this evening

Looks like the GGEM has a pretty intense tuck between 7 pm and midnight Thursday evening

well they'd better hurry ... Running out of time before they have to just be flat out considered busts... I don't accept in recent tech advancing in these tools ... a day's lead than 'oh, by the way'? UN acceptable. That is a failure That said... were/if folks were 'hoping' cold corrections would continue right on into a snowier solution for us, down here, ...yeah, not impossible. But it was never really on the better side of the odds with this mess. It's still really unchanged to be blunt. Looks like RUT -PWM ~ latitude for snow to me, with IP --> ZR --> cold rain however far it takes to ruin yet another opportunity in this winter of misfits going S.

So... I'd definitely pump the breaks in vesting in the 28th/1st and anything afterward - if that hasn't already happened. Models are renegotiating the timing of the NAO, a facet I brought up yesterday as a 'delay' in the onset - certainly the ability of any would-be -NAO to exert over the western limb of the domain. That was a transition new motif as of yesterday, and I noticed immediately ... systems were accelerating in the cinema of the models for the period beyond this 23rd scenario. That change in the circulation exertion has become even more coherent ( unfortunately for the 28th...) overnight. All three, EPS/GEFS/GEPs really don't have enough to suggest the 28th will take either a more S friendly track, or slow enough to get its act together before leaving, any longer. As a result, the GEPs resolves this by taking a primary too far up the ST L region before committing to a Miller B reposition in the GOM. Deep too! At 180+ hours, it's down to 982 as a mean, which is about as deep as can be for a typically noisy multi-member average. But that's too late, and the front side ...not sure a SWFE can result from that thermal layout. The EPS is similar actually...only not as deep. But it doesn't matter - there's a real entity in the flow that will also behave like that, too high for even Central NE before Miller B transition, and to too late to vest in - save perhaps moose-fart NE Maine. GFS ...similar again, but not as deep as the EPS... Same essentially, a doesn't matter scenario as the entity it's managing along ends up too far NW with the primary before it the secondary gets going = too late. All of these solution are responding to the back-off of the western exertion/NAO model, one that was a bit more aggressive/present in the runs prior to yesterday. The solutions they do have, and this is evident particularly in the operational GFS' 06z run... appear cold challenged now, too. That's because said circulation control is no longer there - or removing. Without it, we're losing the mechanism to load crucial cold thickness between successive events. Yeah... all and all I'd say this was a butt boning series overnight ...and another in a long and tiresome examples of why the NAO cannot be relied upon and is also overrated. Aside from the fact, the NAO is actually an illusion in a philosophical way...because its modes are really controlled by way of the non-linear wave function from the flow coming across the Pacific and N/A... so when we look for an NAO, it's really more of a beacon for if the Pacific non-linear wave function is transmitting a signal.. blah blah blah Anyway, long history of NAO bamboozling so not just for the 28th/1st ...I'd also keep all this shirking by the model in mind as we attempt to peer into a March that frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if it hosted a 80F warm burst like DC... In a lot of ways, this current 23rd ordeal and the PV advent ...compressing the field enough to cause it, is really merely interfering with our 2018 redux. And I don't have any faith at all, one can't succeed next month when the sun really is getting cooking and the NAO ( or Pacific...which ever one needs to use ), continues bring winter enthusiasts back from dead, only to send them through this tortured hell of 'it can still happen' LOL

Part of me wonders if the next one of these surges won’t have the benefit of an active northern stream in March and will expand much further north

It’s likely to “wobble” these same amts, north and south, straight thru verification

Especially because there’s a relative min band right there at Ray’s

Exactly...and when half the block is actually eclipsing the British Isles aspect of the NW European continent ...how east does it have to be before we can just call it a block and leave it at that... It does start rero motion but not until this month is gone -

And what bizarre looking system late on the 26th thru early 27th ... It's cinema has an ANA backside with a deep low out in front. Something tells me future guidance will be morphing that into something that actually typically happens on Earth.

Yeah... the -NAO is delaying the last several runs...That's why that GFS is doing that. Prior to about 18z yesterday, the NAO blocking was faster to retrograde, and it was timed so that the 28th would be forced to slow down a bit. Now, ...it's more like Mar 2 .. 5, and that leaves these leading systems to careen east in the otherwise compressed/gradient saturated heights.