Typhoon Tip

Comparing the oper. GFS vs the Euro ( this run...) arriving at 72 hours ...the Euro's confluence axis is several hundred miles NE of where the GFS places it. this is a clear disagreement on the degree of -NAO exertion spanning back SW ( ...transitively...) between these two guidance sources. the GEFs appears to side with the operational pretty well wrt to that, and the other parametric evolution -fwiw. not sure what the EPS says about its oper. flagship version, but i know that some recent run cycles demoed more disconnect in this cluster comparing the American suite - again... fwiw. This 'exertion' is hugely important to this. The GFS begins to feel that probably ... 36 hours into the cinema, when by imperceptible amts it begins correcting small amounts S-E along the arced trajectory as it rises in latitude ( deep layer total mechanical wave space governing the event). Such that by 72 hours, the Euro has a solution that's up our fannies too far for fun ( prison visit)... while the GFS is serviceable risk for winter enthusiasts...

Looks like wobble noise in a steeply gradated set up...

ICON would send people off their chairs if the model was worth a flake heh... I mean, that looks like 12 hours of S just about everywhere N of the south shore... with at least 8 of them in S+

Nam is almost 5 to 10 mb weaker with antecedent and in situ high pressure, N of Maine comparing the consensus.

actually... the 06z trended N by some comparing the 00z run. It's not a one time thing.. But the 06z GFS went colder... and with the Euro tending to collapse... so the consensus sign of the deltas (-dm/dt) are not in favor of the + dNAM/dt ( crude math) of these two recent NAM runs. It's a weird winter... every model or foresight there is has had equal chance to score a coup, but nothing has

clock work with the NAM... 72 hours it hangs it's ass over the punch bowl.

Lol... yeah...I was being 'sardonical' ...but I'm pretty sure we're going to be entering into a bit of a meso weirdness for the next day and half, as these type tools are really no where near their wheelhouse at this range - you know this ...for the general audience. I really feel at 3.5 days lead we gotta make the call here and predict the f'er at this point, and anyone that does gets a bit of latitude because for one... the gradient is tight. No one ( or model either ) can be held accountable if wiggles at grid scales means the difference between 9.4" of snow and some IP taint, vs 3.2" with ZR ..., vs cold rain, or 14.1" of pure snow... and on and so on. It's one reason why the colder trends were encouraging, because between the confluence N, and the semi permanent ridge wall S-SE, there is, ironic for needle threading, higher confidence in the primary --> secondary in the Bite region model to me. It's the "path of lessening resistance" ..but if/when doing so (obviously) in a colder total environment, affords those nuanced wiggles.

It’s 72 hours, so it’s precisely in the mandatory fuck up window of the Nam

Little critter. They do tend to slip awareness. It’s legit for CNE and points N. It’s been in the guidance as a ‘non-photogenic’ feature all along for Mar 2 … systems need more traditional glam to capture attention. It’s like why good looking people tend to go farther in life haha But Will and I had marked this one for monitoring a few days ago… as the high school guidance councilors we are … as a troubled loner spending a lot of time in “munitions quarterly”

It will be interesting to see if the models are edging that 700mb evolution right. It’s like sparking closing off, off and on, in theses isohypses intervals. I think it’s possible that if it gets that precarious .. it will just go ahead and close off.

Agreed … and I have less issue negotiating for blue during the blue times of year when marginality has an actual high pressure situated N feeding in correction vector points that way

Trivial note but me too. heh. Yesterday, at around 1:30 pm, it was still snowing but in classic spring form, the sky was really day glowing with the power of the sun... That looked that way without there even being a dim orb. It just was bright, and the car had actually glopped itself clear in the windows with beads of sweat running down. It made snow removal a non-issue. Today is likely to have a great "nape" affect - where no wind in full sun at this time of year creates this cocoon of fragile warmth. It's really quite redeeming when conditions afford that during an otherwise tired winter and exhausted patience time of year. For me anyway - I mean, cook up a blockbuster and I'm happy to pull the hypocrite's immunity card and go all in..but, those are relatively rare. Most years, I tend to check out by this time. Luckily... in about 10 days, there's a whopper signal. If this was back in my Eastern days, ... unconstrained for my visions, I would have started a thread already ...replete with index modalities.

Oh there's a large signal beyond the 10th. In fact, the night's ens means are now detecting.

Close ...I mentioned this was trying to move that way yesterday. You can observe that the ballast of the mid level wind max is now actually S of NYC-BOS axis, so technically...it's already starting to fail the SWFE total deep layer mechanics... In fact, I'd be perfectly happy saying the 00z/06z GFS blend is a hybrid Miller B already

Heh the ptype on TT is south of that

Here's a conspiracy theory ... ... notice how about 18 months ago... last year or so, the ECMWF org relaxed policy over their products quite a bit ... started allowing general access to viewing? This performance shit started raising eyebrows around then. Hmm Who here loves a good coincidence ?!

Even the JMA agrees with the GGEM/GFS... Don't know what use that serves pointing that out, but it is what it is. In fact, the GGEM 12z is almost indistinguishable from the 18z GFS ..and both their ensemble means are too close to quibble over. In all seriousness I'm not using the Euro for this system at all at this point in time. That may change if it heads-outta ass, but the guidance consensus is overwhelmingly doing what it should do at fuckum 4 days lead - agreeing! jesus christ. And we're fretting over these wayward pieces of rat pellet model runs like dreary omens and 'telling' ...oooh. Rant over... haha

Why am I analyzing what everyone already knows...

Also, the GFS is trended S with the wind max... now cutting more down the latitude of the L.I. sound, instead of central NE. If we can get that to come down to Jersy, we have a real CCB/comma head change. It's actually hinted on this 18z rendition

Heh... the TT cinema of the GFS never gets the tick line N of the Pike - that's the coldest I've seen this thing modeled. I'm also still fighting a sinking feeling over attenuation due to moving headlong into Tyson's fist. I'm convinced there has to be some... but, the GFS is ejecting a pretty big goodly bolt of momentum with this thing and so having more to conserve is serving the destiny well for us here. But I gotta say, with the same scaffolding in place, it can't back down or this event will go right with it in lockstep. Bank that! Consider us warned...

The whole hemisphere has been yawing back and forth like that about ever other or every 2nd other run. One interesting thing I've been noticing... whenever the core of that hornet sting is a little deeper/potent, it's always when the confluence is flatter and vice versa. interesting - it's like it's not allowed to be powerful with a confluence, only without it... heh. I almost wonder if the models are using the wave space of the hornet sting to "push" against the might of the NAO exertion entirely...it seems like it.

It's a blockbuster that'll get all fumbled around with and fucked up - right in my sweet window of the 12-13th... sort of an 1888 redux, only bigger than just SE NY/CT but not 50" either.... who's with me!

Heh ...you don't have to defend yourself. no one should read any post like, "so-and-so was a big improvement" or "so-and-so was a piece of shit," grab their keys and take off with an impression of the model run at hand. haha... I was really being sarcastic. You should always look for your self.

The wave spacing is decidedly different from B.C. to NF across that latitude of southern Canada. The Euro positions everything, including the confluence aspect(s), some 500 mile E of the GFS ( just comparing those two...) That difference is at convenience to either solution. The Euro allows the whole thing to end up in Michigan before it starts being forced E... The GFS differences don't allow that...and it ends up forced E sooner. The Euro is seems to be forcibly trying to invent reasons to drive the La Nina spring/-PNA along. One thing I'll point out regarding the Euro's recent history in a similar pattern - i.e., the one today... It had this 28th system originally one of the westward solutions early, and then collapsed it all the way to all but a southerly whiff at some point in the count-down. Not sure if that'll happen in this case ... The southern stream position handling is one thing, but I noticed that aspect difference along southern Canada and I stopped waiting for new hours even. F' it at that point. It may be right but it's wholesale different than a lot of other guidance now. EPS outta be interesting...

Couldn’t even get to the end of this one … Solid downgrading effort will forever be a demerit engraving on this event’s tombstone