Typhoon Tip

I agree with this surmise ( bold ). In fact I was thinking about this very aspect this morning. How the d(correction) aspect, the Euro's total 7 day aggregate may have had to correct more, but ... once in short range? it seemed to perform pretty good/better than the GFS. Now...I'm not willing to give it 'complete' credit inside of 48 hours though, because it had rain to southern NH. I'm not raining here... at all. It just snow too wet accumulate, under a day glow Mar 4 overcast. It's actually cold enough to have been a much better player, if the GFS dynamics verified as far S as it had. It's basically busted N of the GFS the way it looks to me.

"bowling season" has it's own rewards ...even if the return rate on that is very low. April Fool's Day storm in 1997 was ... actually, I wanna get this off a nerd's chest. It's always bugged me a little that people think of April '97 as this bowling bomb. It wasn't the best of examples. As this 500 mb snapshot, 12z on the 31st of March shows ( courtesy NCEP library), the event was preceded by an integrated relay from the west. It sort of did take that on the next day ...but, it's hard to differentiate this below, from just any deep trough cutting off during the winter. I suppose the 'omega' construct overall sort of makes it both...but that the lead up to it was all an integrated wave propagation and less a bowling ball

In fact ...it's not beyond the realm of possibilities that the hemispheric appeal in that annotation above, and the empirical measured anomaly change in the SST ..., are indirectly connectable (physically) with what's going on in the whole planetary system. What's the SOI... ? Are the lower lat wind anomalies changing ? It may be that the whole hemisphere is just up and moving away from the La Nina scaffolding, and so the upwelling is abandoned - ... just venturing

I'm not sure about an "arctic" shot. Gelid, sure... Thing is, the 'blocking,' as the western limb -NAO fades ..it really smears west across the Canadian shield in ensemble means of all three, really. That actually blocks cold from higher latitudes. As far as the 'after the 20th' warm up... mixed sentiments in that range. I mean obviously that's getting into more seasonal dialogue. There are competing factors for me. One, the La Nina is dying ( in fact ...the weekly SST anomalies have explosively corrected toward neutral just about everywhere E of 3.4 longitudes...) ...but I am not sure it's momentum in the hemisphere is completely dead by then. I actually think its grip will be weakening... It's very complicated, but La Nina springs tend to be warmer than normal - not so sure about a rapid decay La Nina that is already ( see above) allowing a hemisphere that looks like that! So it may in fact be a moot inclusion of La Nina factorization in the discussion by then. Then, we have to consider the decadal signal for blocking in springs. It's been a recurring transition season aspect, regardless of ENSO actually... That may transition us into one helluva BD season...certainly we may deal with bowling balls if/when that innate tendency should recur.

man... That 0z "control" version of the Euro was fun... It actually splits this signal into two events. Both having sfc pressure down below 980mb... The first of the two, Mar11/12th... then, just 3 days later, it brings another up. Of the two, the first one goes up the Hudson.. snow for interior PA to SE NY, W MA and the Greens, but we all probably start as wet snow before going to rain east - so less than idea. But that 2nd one... wow, quite the eye-candy. It's got temperatures 15 to 25 everywhere NW of Taunton ... with a 974 mb low passing from just S of LI to the BM. Total 24-hour QPF is averaging 1.8" melted SE of PSM NH to HFD CT line, with over an inch NW, and 3" on the Cape where it's like 34F and probably sustaining close to hurricane wind gusts... We have mentioned that this period of time between the 10th and 15th may host multiple events... it's certainly plausible that carries us right up to the equinox ( spring challenges increasing/notwithstanding). The 2nd one above is 17th or so.. So unfortunately, there is almost no deterministic value at this range.

None of them were! ...except the one model, and it's ensemble mean is just about 180 degrees out of phase with it. wtf - No.. as usual, this was some sort of "venting" therapy phenomenon that happens... There's a handful of repeat offenders and we all know who they are... but they have some sort of maladjusted psycho-babble bs agenda, if not quite literally competency issues, and they come into these social media outlets like they're their own sandbox.

Thanks Will - Okay, so.. for those disenchanted by the GFS, I can assure you it is a vast ...literally diametric peregrination, comparing across all guidance modes and means, including it's own ensemble consensus. This first step, easy, quick ...available to all ( for f-sake) comparison, demonstrates that the operational version is radically off on it's own... ...sorry that ended up blurry...but those are the 06z 200+ ( within 12 hours of one another) .. Anyway, more over, the EPS, the GEPs, both demo coherent signals of a Nor'easter type coastal projection. Particularly in the EPS Fwiw, the operational Euro, and the operational GGEM ... are in much better sync with the overwhelming suggestion that is also agreed upon by all three EPS/GEFS/GEPs considered... So that covers the case presentation by the Defendants - ... In closing remarks, I'd also push the hypothesis that the operational GFS, may be in troubled waters considering it's native bias. It tends to progressively stretch the flow, which is noted in be error logs at NCEP...etc... It's subtle, but real, and measurable. That said, it seems that ( take the lead up to today's event - ) when the flow is fast ( gradient rich), the GFS may perform better, because the flow its self is concerted to the GFS tendency. But in this case above, there is a pretty profound change in the hemisphere going on. The flow is attempting to hang blocking over 60 to 70 N across the Canadian shield. This lowers heights along 35 N... so the flow relaxes the gradient some, and that slows the flow. That may not jive so well with the GFS. I'm suspicious of the GFS in a pattern that is differentiating into a slower/blockier affairs.

It's alright ... For those interested in actual substantive analysis ( or are even capable of cogency in that regard ..which frankly ) This signal is still precisely where it was in terms of robustness when this thread started. Before demoing why... many may want to re-read the opening missive?

I've asked Will to clean up the last 2 or so pages of this thread, which was started in good virtue and intent.

EPS's 00z mean was definitively SE of the 12z mean early yesterday -

Don't attempt to block this therapeutic commiseration orgy with anything that 'pulls out' a decent look...

This isn't gonna cut it, frankly. It's March 4 in the day. These fall rates presently will sustain one's stack but their not gaining and the drip fest will commence soon ...straight through the overcast. ..glop bombs slipping from the trees and birds zipping to and fro' in disrespect ... It smells like rain while the aggregates struggle to remain actually aggregates... Get the picture? lol - This is a classic spring snow event. Whether it really looked that way in guidance or anyone happened to mention ( all salutations conferred), this is a blue bonk. Relatively minor one in my town. I'm a 4.5" ... C+ performance. But a colder temp might have given this closer to a half foot. That's my morning "hot" take

Holy shit! 18z NAM FOUS over Logan 18073978031 10117 980936 45009799 .73" in 0C, -3C, -1C at 980, 900 and 800 mb levels respectively. 36kt sustained!! 24054977913 -8321 940438 41009796 .54" in 0C, -3C, -4C at 980, 900 and 800 mb levels respectively. 38kt sustained!! The open tarmacs if that goes over to pure snow would get close to verifying. I haven't seen the synoptic charts just yet. This may be confined to just the coast...but those numbers there illustrate an upper moderate/low end major event.

this run's garbage now that I look it more fully...

Sure... the following Mar 14 outlook by the GEFs mean qualifies an exceptional example of the 'AB' phase of the Pacific circulation mode taking over by then. That is big difference than what is occurring now, which looks more like this... The AB phase below on Mar 14: typically throws up higher heights down stream ... it's why and when the North Pacific is in the AB, that highly correlates to cold anomalies over N/A. Now, ...this particular AB construct that we see above only couples to modestly ridging down stream of a pretty impressive looking AB signal. That's perhaps correct-able in raising heights in future runs. But that said... there's no cooky cutter snap fit anything about this ( just speaking to the general audience here). I would only argue the correction vector is higher heights over western N/A. Also... I'm noticing the AB axis might be situated W ... I'm like, what the f*k is up with this west biased shit this year. Jesus Christ... in any case, that's the first ( I have seen) AB synopsis, and given it is onsetting...that obviously enters uncertainty in either direction with exactly how the western N/A heights respond down stream. They should ridge, teleconnectors are meant to be broken, it seems, as just a fantastically delicious aspect of CC too... whole 'nother discussion.

It's unfortunately ... ... not impossible. However, I personally can only offer that beyond D7... particularly 216 hours, the Euro tends to shorten the longitude of wave lengths while increasing the total curved nature of the flow. Meridian biased ... It used to be more obvious years ago. But that gobbled up super massive Sagitarius *A star black hole of a vortex, 400,000,000 times the mass of the sun and parking it over Dubuque Iowa like that strikes me as the Euro buckin' for enough curvature to bend the arms of the Milky Way Galaxy. But that's hardly the thesis intro to a scientific paper, huh -

I'm not actually sure on the MJO's input ... I realize it's surging into Phase 7--> 8 as we type, but it only spends an intra-weekly time span in that space before all the guidance contributing to the RMM are showing it nose diving toward the lower skill momentum ... It never really gets through 8, into 1 It may just be an artifact of a new emergent wave momentum/propagation, it may start 'unfurling' ... But until that's indicated, the current outlook smacks as still kind of running into some sort of broadly destructive interference. It's about momentum. If the wave does not spend much time in the total 8-1-2 region, it's total integration is weak --> implies less coherency. One would think anyway. No where else in dynamic physical nature is Newton's First Law, 'An object at rest stays at rest and an object in motion stays in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force,' better demonstrated than by atmospheric mechanics. Namely...pattern/Rosby dispersion. If the MJO is insufficient to act on the on-going regime, ... it doesn't act on the on-going regime. It's actually remarkably simple. Anyway, with that conceptual shit in mind... I just need the wave presentation to look less weird like these big curlycues

I 'think' what he may also be dancing around ( and I'd agree if so...) is that we may not really "need" a big ridge? ...It's really all about less resistance. Actually all events are constrained by that... But in this case - as you've pointed out - the previous examples (this year) of +PAN were skewed west enough that resistance to mobilizing troughs through the E was higher and well... never happened. Not really. Sometimes the presentation of the ridge belies whether or not there is lessening(growing) resistance. I suspect the ridging all ready prevalent in these runs nods to that, as the axis is (thank f god!) actually over the land mass of d-damn continent for a change. Scott's right though about the decaying -NAO over H. B.

Thanks Sey-Mour ... it's interesting that although the spread is large (geometrically), there are members in there below 970. Yeah, I didn't include these ensemble spread products because there's enough already in that missive to send folks to their Sumatriptan

btw, I create a thread for that focus... just letting people know its there. It'll probably be back seat until the afterglow (or jilted rage...), fades off Saturday night but it's there nonetheless..

Been ribbing the forum for a couple of days on this aspect ...agreed. Hyper vigilance to detect reasons to poo-poo is about as useless as calling every cumulus cloud on the charts a 10 ten blizzard, though. Okay, so maybe the latter is worse...but still - it ain't helpin'

Yeah ...I know. That clipper next Tuesday has been gaining identity in the GFS every run going back some 7 cycles. 'That's what we call a trend, class' I don't like the QPF loading with a NW-SE moving S/W that doesn't/didn't have access to a PWAT inject prior to arriving here. But... I remember a 'little critter' like that ... in February of 03 that shocked the shit outta NWS and sent them scrambling to get a Warning out down the east end of the Pike when 10" , on a west wind no less, laid down over a white home page on their web address while it was happening .. heh. Come to think of it, that's might actually be the greatest positive bust ever, because it went from "0" to 10" ... We can't be tossing these things like they don't count. And we may also just be in a small 3 week window of, 'if it can happen it does' results. Go figure! we'll see.

I realize the system here in the foreground needs its attention bandwidth ...but I'm a dork haha Man, there are some WHOPPER attempts just exploding onto the charts out there. Granted, they are largely eye-candy being that they are D8+, but you know. When we are establishing a baseline powderkeg in a 10 year old's club house of explosive potential and some point ... so much eye candy starts to make one wonder. However so ... I do suspect we are seeing a rather quick emergence in the Mar 11-13th range.

The NAM's FOUS has that implicated 24064978517 05516 970937 46009800 24076995607 -2611 900203 51050400 ..E at 37 kts! 30037978622 -3520 940435 42009798 30001886004 -0118 973314 45040097 ..NE at 35 kts! 36010918128 -2824 073624 34999491 By the way...also colder than the last run. No interval is above 0C beneath 800 mb level... Now...obviously the NAM likes to string hammocks and open the tiki bar at 725 whenever it can, so ...not sure about that elevated sleet column scenario. But the QPF in the left columns is over an inch. just some offering this -

GFS'll be interesting in that detail... ...I noticed it was inching closer and stronger across the last several cycles - minuscule amounts, but a dependable 'stolid' (won't be deterred) trend. It's almost a comedic underpinning to this that only a nerd would understand ( LOL )... the GFS is just getting fought by all guidance for any gesture it dare put forward at all - wow I almost want it to verify just because it's being targeted for abuse like a red headed step child at a 'how to f-up a kids life' convention