fountainguy97

Same here having 3 very similar big dog members this far out is pretty bullish. Great signal for cold and a low pressure to our south. That’s all we can ask for at this stage. 12z may get interesting if we get some OP support. Gfs is suppressed and that’s exactly where we want it in this range.

been watching this period for a few days now and the 06z GFS is starting to look very interesting for the 140-170 timeframe. Classic time for a storm as we shake up our pattern on the heels of a large frontal cold shot. This potential slides in just a couple days after much of the Eastern US is plunged into a pretty cool period. Could be a classic setup for the Southeast/Tennessee valley.

pleasantly surprised here in Unicoi county. nice light/moderate snow. dusting on mulch is starting. I'll take a bust on this side over the last storm any day

Delayed but not denied! 33.6 and light snow.

Updated forecast for the rest of today. I do not buy this at all for Unicoi. HRRR has done very well for my area so far. Cant believe it’s verifying when it was by itself for so long. Hopefully you guys have had better luck I’m sitting at 34 with Wet grass.

Pain over here in Unicoi. Been on this edge for hours

37.6 here with some micro flakes flying. Waiting for the band from Asheville to head my way! should atleast manage an hour of good rates if hrrr is right. If other models are right this backbuilds over me. We will see

congrats on those seeing snow! HRRR still concerning for us Eastern areas going into game time...

MRX starting to bite a bit. Now that we are inside 12hrs haha very nice consensus finally forming on our “big 3” meso models. Hrrr is ticking their way each run as well.

12km and 3km are rocking for us tonight! Hrrr leaping and bounding toward them as well. Euro has been showing this for days now. Time to get a little bit excited I think

Seems like it’s all in the flow. watch this GIF. You can quickly see the initial dry slot as I assume mountains etc soak up a lot of moisture. Then our flow halts and pivots and you see an explosion of precip in NE TN and the valley. you can see the initial dry slot I assume is caused by just the initial flow and mountains blocking a lot of moisture. Atleast I know for Unicoi this flow often can lead to a lack of precip. then as we see the pivot we see that explosion into the valley and across NE TN. And if this happens we could be talking abt some very nice rates and a very slow moving band. Easy 2” an hour in places. so it’s almost like a two step process. Step one will actually take a while. Don’t be surprised to see a lot of weak precip all around us all through the evening and tonight but that’s expected! The real show is early tomorrow morning when we get that veering flow.

Someone is going to see biscuit sized flakes under this. Look at that vertical motion from 800mb to 400mb

Hrrr is trending better and better now that we are getting into its range. Falling in line with others.

A very nice kind of similar theme is starting to develop now that we are inside 24 hrs lol. still a lot of variation between some models but we are getting there.

so the HRRR ticked north which its not even in its wheelhouse yet. 12km NAM came in really bullish and the 3km is now much less bullish haha I feel like all this flipping around is just indicative of the mesoscale nature of this one. We may never get a uniform solution across models until right at game time tonight. It really feels like we are tracking individual supercells on the long range hrrr and 3km nam with how much they are jumping haha.

12z 12km nam looks much better. coming in line with its high res counter part. 12km actually buries the Eastern Valley

Yep Hrrr stepped toward other models. It’s still it’s long range too. Usually not reliable until 12-14hrs out or so

Yeah the 3km 06z is a beautiful example of this. Looks like a bowling ball of heavy precip just rotating over portions of Eastern and NE TN. Most models do have that and the EURO has consistently shown it. hopefully we can get the hrrr back on board

Looks very similar to 3km NAM. Concerned about the hrrr coming in so snowless for East TN but it’s prone to random runs like that. I think at 12z this morning we should get better model agreement.

For what its worth the 3km and RAP are super close together. Just need the RGEM to hop on board and we have the trifecta of high res models on our side. The RGEM isn't my favorite model. But it does do well at times.

this 12km run lol 9 inches of snow in 6 hrs in southern Unicoi

Almost always. Yes. Most globals have convective feedback issues which can stunt precip growth away from the center of a storm system. Iike @Daniel Boone said it’s time for high res models to take the lead. But I find it encouraging to see euro coming in beefy for the mountains.

i feel like you are right. Mostly because globals often struggle with the mesoscale nature of convection. And that explains why the GFS family struggles and the EURO does a tad better. EURO imo has always been the better ULL model. And speaking of. 12z euro is also starting to pick up an enhanced band of convection. although not as expansive north as high res models. Nice to see EURO still delivering significant snowfall to the Eastern areas and backing up the high res amounts. This to me validates those beefier high res runs of the RAP and 12km NAM.

ULL driven events like this are the absolute worst type of winter event. haha this thing will be "trending" one way or the other up to the last minute most likely. I have to say I'm pretty optimistic with 12km nam, RGEM, RAP and the 3km all showing enhacned banding features. just a matter of where they end up. Its possible a band of 2" hr rates swings through most of NE TN. and wherever it pivots could get slammed.

The 15z RAP is just absolutely absurd. Dumping wet paste like crazy. We know it wont verify but wow check it out.