fountainguy97
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Everything posted by fountainguy97
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Areas west of the valley cash in tmrw morning. Don't get frustrated when tmrw the valley and points east struggle with precip and downslope issues. our show comes as the flow backs and that Vort swings through.
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Hrrr and nam finally seeing the significance of the ULL passage. In my experience when you see NW events with moisture into the 700mb layer it typically ends up being a pretty significant event. 3km nam has 20-30knt of 850 flow and temps in the teens during these frames. It would stack on quickly.
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Yeah that's the only player we can get anything of note from at this point for E and NE regions. The initial precip shield is doomed to the transfer. Maybe a very lucky few get 1-2" Wednesday morning at best.
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Yep that's just how it's been the last few winters. If I've been taught anything by the last 3 winters it's just sit back and let it ride. I used to get so spun up about storms and crash out when they inevitably went poof. It's still frustrating for sure but my mindset now is that I'm just a spectator with no control over any of it. Just going to let it ride and enjoy what we do get. Even with the downslope fiasco and the warm nose issues and now this transfer this winter has been exponentially better than the last 2 for my backyard.
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Yeah what a brutal transfer. Wish we could get back to the earlier phase solution but it is extremely unlikely at this point. almost completely blanks Western NC.
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Yeah models trending flatter and a late phase. Keeps us much drier.
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Thread started for next week!
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Can we get a true Miller A pass with no warm nose? Trends today are good!
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12z trends aren't bad. CMC and gfs moving toward the more broken up 2 phase event. Intial precip and then backfill. Vs a single amped storm. euro went toward the gfs camp at 06z too. Seems like that is the obvious way we score with this one. Let that second wave of precip blossom in the cold sector and avoid the warm nose push by a full phase amped system.
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Man another storm with an absolutely brutal warm nose for eastern areas. This has been the winter of warm nosing and downslope lol.
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Ensembles are still useful at this range. 12z euro is actually better. I wouldn't worry about a small amount of suppression at this range. Not until inside 72 hrs.
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Wow. Just like that overnight the CMC, EURO, UK have a monster storm for TN. Good agreement overnight.
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BIG CAD signature on most models around the 210 timeframe. I don't think Eastern areas like these setups at all. Warm straight up the gut of the valley.
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33.1. Amazing what a nice healthy DGZ and moisture support can do for rates. Already heavier snow than anything the last storm did here.- 207 replies
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37.9 here. Seems like most of my accumulation will come from the cold NW flow. Not sure much of this daytime stuff will have a chance to accumulate.
- 207 replies
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I'm not sure how much room this really has to move north. Our NW trend is typically possible because of a lack of an arctic push. This one will turn our backyards into Canada for a few days. IMO the NW trend may not be as pronounced this time. I think ETN has a shot. But even here I think there is a good chance this one slides to our south. real talk, my friends back in NC are in desperate need of a big snowstorm. I'm rooting for them 100%!!
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Sneaky system this weekend could be a surprise. Threat for next week looks icy for someone that's for sure. I think the ice threat is very very high with this setup with such a strong CAD push. The GEFS has a lot of really flat NW precip shields. Thin snow streak at the extreme northern edge but a huge ice shield.
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Seems like high-res more or less nailed the downsloping for me. I'm maybe at an inch. 32 on the button. I am patiently waiting for my NW snow to pad the stats good lesson from this one. Here is the HRRR initialization for 7pm. That downslope 850mb is ripping overheard. It will slowly come around and end up enhancing our side later tonight.
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Moderate snow now. Roads whitening fast! 29.3.
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Temp still climbing in the downslope zone. 29. Tiny tiny flakes falling now
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Up to 28 here. But the sky is getting really soft. Snow not far from the surface but nothing yet.
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26/18 here. Sky has that early virga look to it. temp rising steadily. How high do we go? And how much precip can actually overcome this downslope?
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Said the same thing last t year haha
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I mean this is just silly at this point.
