Kevin Reilly

Yikes 970 mb wow this is still 4.5 to 5 days out too that’s an eternity in the tropics when it comes to track and intensity. A troubling item also that’s there is no strong front trough coming to the East coast actually the WAR builds west on this run.

Henri will be very interesting to track the East Coast is pretty open without a strong trough coming in from the west. There is a pretty good blocking area of high pressure off of the New England Coast for days and that would appear to be a key to where Henri goes. Pretty much a east southeasterly flow pointing up along the East Coast this week into the weekend. It's interesting I do remember a few GFS runs last week showing this system making a run to the Carolina coast then blocked up the coast last week.

Quite impressive considering where we were just 24 hours ago wow!! The only inhibiting factor to me is the dry air punching northeast in the southwest quadrant. All in all it does have a chance to become a minimal hurricane in the next two to three hours before it encroaches on land and feels the land effects.

GFS really strengthens Fred down to 983 mb at landfall that is pretty dramatic should be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.

Yep take a look at the water vapor map Gulf is and Atlantic open for business to our south the pipeline is lining up and heading Northeast with Fred embedded in the flow to boot too.

The moisture is already returning. High 84 here today the dewpoint got as low as 50. Current dewpoint back up to 58 and winds switching around light to the east northeast. On Water Vapor map you can see the moisture waiting in the wings south of DC out to the Ohio Valley all the way south to the Gulf Coast all of this is heading in this direction as an upper air low and trough digs down through Saint Louis. We will have to track what becomes of Tropical Storm Fred's moisture field over the next few days as the flow is south-southwesterly.

Well Shear strikes again. Truly looks like an El Nino set up with the string of upper air lows out there dotting from Florida out to the Leward Islands.

Yes a weaker system would slide west

It’s a bit frustrating watching some weather outlets continuing to garner as many ratings as they can in regards to Fred! This system should be declassified it’s an open wave and most of the weather around it support a few passing clouds a shower with partly sunny conditions. I mean we are tracking a 1013-1014 mb low that’s a weak high pressure system. Between the over hyped 90L the first to be Fred candidate and now this system it’s all ratings and clicks to me. Now I’m done bantering! It’s dangerous to be overhyping because when the “real” storm comes no one will take it seriously since all you are worried about but ratings and clicks! There is something else that has caught my eyes outside of Tropical Storm Grace. I have circled a system moving SSW not too far from Bermuda. The models off and on had this system so it’s worth keeping an eye on it in addition to Grace. The only limiting factor probably will be shear as a cold front and associated jet head off the mid Atlantic coast. It will be interesting to see if this system ducks under the trough heading off the Mid Atlantic and heads for the Carolinas. Unfortunately cannot upload my pic but check out the visible satellite near Bermuda.

Once again these systems are running west into a string of upper level lows from Florida to east of the Bahamas shear is the main issue. Again this Atlantic set up with these upper air lows and abundant shear looks an awful lot like a weak to moderate El Nino pattern instead of La Nina to me.

Fred is no big deal shear will keep this weak. I’d be more concerned with 95L than Fred.

However that is just what is happening on the surface. You cannot ignore the dry air and shear around.

That has been the trend too after Elsa with this hurricane season. The last robust naked swirl we tracked made landfall near Saint Augustine. This hurricane season is more and more reminding me of the 2009 hurricane season. That year we were developing a weak to moderate El Nino just interesting as we head forwards here. I know the data shows a redeveloping La Nina though.

Fred leaving NW islands of Hatti but is struggling. Dry air and westerly shear due to upper level lows one to its northeast and another northwest near Florida both of these upper air lows and sheared environment dropping out of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico should keep Fred from much redevelopment over the next 24-36 hours.

You’re kidding right???

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021081018&fh=6 I know it’s the 18z Gfs but this run is unlike anything I’ve ever seen in regards to the Atlantic set up a storm moving West Southwest to the Outer Banks and another developing in the Bahamas coming to Maryland making a left turn to Baltimore and DC and continuing on to Pittsburgh. Then a huge baroclinic zone running from coastal Florida to NYC and New England crazy crazy run.

0.67” here in Media winds gusted to 40-45 with vivid lightning and had some power flashes. Lady on channel 10 said Philly area will stay dry pleasant but dry at 6:20 that’s ridiculous.

Picked up 1.57” 4:43 pm to 5:45 pm in Media a few big bangs and winds gusted to 20-25 models showing some activity 1am to 5:30 am disturbance running along a warm front as the coastal low to our east gets the final boot.

Your map there is from February 12th 2021 if that were the pattern now East Coast on Alert for Fred

A lot of the models are showing an upper level low west of Tampa that will definitely impact shear over Fred if the upper air Los is still there that is.

Well so far the hurricane season is almost to a tee the same as 2009. I don’t know about the winter of 2010 but the winter of 2009-2010 PHL picked up 78” of snow.

Just saw this had no idea you said it lol we think alike if only backwards.

37” of snow this winter from one storm or a tropical system heading up the coast one of the two!?

That’s been the new normal

Then Next Kamu and I will tell you the sleet line is racing north and northwest through much of Delaware County! Game On!!! Right after the Strong Feb Sun comes out today and temps down here cruise through the 50's to near 60.