wasnow215

18z GFS less snow for RVA than 12z. Not over tho, just need 50 miles south and east and HP pushing down more.

41 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Very disappointing, but hopefully it’s wrong.

Correct-all other models trending colder past 3 runs- so one model that doesn’t show snow shouldn’t be thought of as a solution anymore than if Euro was the only one that was cold enough for snow.

ALSO-EPS a little better

8 hours ago, H2O said:

Commanders suck so bad. But the eagles. Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha

If you’re a Washington fan it means your team has sucked for 3 decades lol

7 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

it does feel like the officiating in the NFL is becoming atrocious.

Oh it’s more than a feeling haha. (Cue Boston song)

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

He still wasn’t eligible because of the formation.   

Possibly but that wasn’t the explanation to Lions coach. The explanation was only 70 reported.

20 minutes ago, Scraff said:

OMG! First the Cowboys win. And now I’m looking at the HoCo / MoCo deathband making its triumphant comeback. Best night ever! 

*Decker did indeed report as eligible and Canadian reports as SECS. Haha. But congrats anyway. 

Transition to some snow won’t be too long after the Eagles beat Dallas! Let’s go!

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Trained weather spotters have reported golf ball sized hail south of HGR

All of them are golfers. So they know haha.

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Low skirts offshore at 204. Suppressed.

Suppressed and warm. Nice combo lol. Again no cold air. PSU has been talking about it for days.

14 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Pressure is on me because I have 10 big wigs coming into town next week and they want me to tell them what the weather is going  to be like….

Well that’s easy-just tell them what it’s been doing the whole winter. Some showers with cool breezy conditions. Like PSU keeps saying (correctly) there’s  no cold air. 

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

What a fucked up winter.  Thankfully it's over and we can put it behind us

Since our region was probably the worst in the country that would normally get snow for snow this season, does that mean we get a number one draft pick for next year? Lol

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Waves 5 and 6 are the ones to watch.

Wave 9 right around Easter. Or maybe MAY DAY! Haha

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Nobody talking about the Day 8 6-8” means all hope must be lost

Literally was just going to post the exact same thing. 2 GFS runs in a row with St Paddy day weekend snow. 

9 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

If you all put as much time and effort into something productive rather than chasing unicorns, you'd all be millionaires living in the Sierra Nevada mountains.. 

*We

52 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Does the CFS have any actual use at all?

This-Meteorology is hard enough 7-10 days out let alone 7-10 months.  

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Because our snow is bounded by 0 and we’re pretty close to the southern edge of where it snows in a grand sense even in a good winter.  There are plenty of places further north where guidance underestimates snow at times on the whole. But some is perception bias. We remember the runs that snow and forget the many many many that don’t. Take right now…the vast majority is showing no snow.  But the minority that shows snow is giving the perception “guidance is predicting snow” but at no time has our probability of snow across guidance reached 50% all winter. When taken in totality guidance hasn’t once predicted snow here all winter. 

Understood-Would you agree that guidance 8-10 days out has shown quite a bit of snow a few times this winter for RVA to DC only to have it change inside of 7 days with little or no snow? But rarely do you see models show cutters 8-10 days out and then this region ends up having a SECS with snow. 

17 minutes ago, stormy said:

I am amused regarding the frantic following of models. They are as corrupted as the humans who create. Self proclaimed experts make proclamations nearly every run only to to proven wrong 6 hours later, but nobody remembers.

We are running out of time except with elevation.

Next winter will please as snow droughts are not successive.

 

But why do they consistently underperform in a “negative snow” direction? We continue to see possible SECS turn into cutters on the models within 5-7 days out or just some rain showers. But when was the last time a modeled cutter 5-7 days ended up being a SECS “in real life”?

Even in the best of years, the best snowstorms are clearly seen pretty early on the models. Not going from cutter to snowstorm. 

13 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Yeah, I'm torn. I looked at that and was like, "F*CK. So typical this season!" And then, on a day like today (or yesterday), I'm like, "Hmmm. Yeah, I'm more ready for warmer springtime temps than I realized. Screw my achey sinuses, BRING IT, SPRING."

We are taking a rare road trip south into northern GA from Wed-Sun this week, and will need to plan a Sat/Sun return depending on what happens with Storm #1...and while I don't particularly want to DRIVE in marginal snow/ice back into NoVA, I am pulling for those of you here in the DMV to get something this weekend. God knows y'all deserve it.

Most likely will be unseasonably cold minus a couple days for at least 2 weeks starting in a few days, so won’t feel like spring anyway probably. Whether we get snow or not. 

16 minutes ago, 87storms said:

The 12z Euro/18z GFS combo might actually be the most important runs of the year.

Until the 0z runs tonight haha. But yeah.

1 hour ago, WesternFringe said:

The op is like one high resolution member of the ensemble at day 8.  And the mean of all the members outperforms any one member at these leads.

Thank you- So it’s pretty absurd in this case how much if an outlier it is- no?

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS looks NOTHING like the OP.

In a simplistic manner can someone explain what would cause the OP and ENS to be so different please? I mean it’s not even close. 

53 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Like Mappy said, go away, please, if you think it is shit the blinds.

Exactly-Haven’t really had any hope for any type of winter weather for a while  and seems like a true pattern change is coming. So I came on here to read bc I thought there would be some good analysis. I was not disappointed. 
 

But “feely” statements like “it ain’t gonna  happen”, is just a waste of a post and is only based on past disappointments not any kind of current medium range climatology. Like a person who is jaded about the entire “dating scene” in general, because THAT PERSON can’t get a date. 

. 

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I see people reference the word “hobby” a lot here as if their interest is tracking and following weather. If that were true, tracking warmth would be as exciting as tracking cold or snow. For some that might be the truth but for most we do this just in the hope that it will snow.

Total respect and totally understand your point, but if you compare it with fantasy football as a hobby, you could say as a hobbyist we participate consistently but can lose interest when “your team is out of it” and other things in our lives take precedence. Same with tracking as a hobby IMO.

8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

What is wrong with you? 

 

Attention seeker etc

0z GFS has more snow for Glen Allen tomorrow than DC. Gotta love it! Lol