wasnow215
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Everything posted by wasnow215
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Models continue to trend colder for Thursday. Again it’s what I mentioned yesterday. 2 days ago it was mostly rain w a bit of frozen to start on models. Now? It’s a least a 50/50 split for RVA. At least
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2 problems with that and yes they are problems if it’s freezing rain: 1-Half the ensembles are major hits for Central Va 2-The pattern for the past several weeks has been one of suppressed systems as the model runs near the event.
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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
wasnow215 replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Exactly!! As I said if people aren’t here to ‘listen’ to good weather people and see what’s happening with the models then go watch ‘Netflix and chill’. -
Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
wasnow215 replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Lol if it doesn’t matter why even look? You could just wait and be surprised. -
12z GFS Ensembles NOT GOOD. Half of them show another ice storm for Central Va this coming Thursday 2/18.
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Trees obviously an issue but just as an observation travel isn’t “nearly impossible” as a foot of snow is. Needed it to be 3-4° colder to be an extreme issue especially w roads. Again certainly not complaining, just observing.
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29° in Glen Allen
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Agreed… I’m also in Glen Allen, near Staples Mill Rd., and the 295 entrance.Agreed… I’m also in Glen Allen, near Staples Mill Rd., and the 295 entrance/exits.
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Roads don’t seem to be an issue from reports I’m getting. Is anyone else hearing anything different. I’ve heard from people in Ashland who had to drive and Mechanicsville.
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Ty-the trends are concerning
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Was just going to say 6z mesos were looking worse with more precip. 3k NAM looked like close to an inch if I’m reading correctly.
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Can you post a state map or just give me RVA plz? I only have 12z.
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I remember living in NYC I believe it was 1994 and even tho temps rose above 32° it took awhile for the freezing rain to become “rain” on the actual surfaces because it was landing on ice that had already accumulated. So I think it may take a little while on Sunday to get back to normal even if temps go 33° or 34°.
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Yes. They handled this really well IMO- I’m glad they did not wait.
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Looks like the winds should stay below 10 mph which is important that happens
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Also 18z gfs colder during freezing rain than 12z. That’s the thing also. Some of the places north and west of Richmond proper could get a little less QPF but could be two or 3° colder than those south and east even though they are still freezing. This is going to be a problem
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The guy ends up being like some weird mad scientist or something sometimes. He feels like he got burned by the European and other models in Europe the last couple weeks so now he just thinks everything is a nonevent. It’s very strange.
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Here in Glen Allen never really stopped but lightened. Now picking up again. And if your look at latest HRRR it shows the dry slot but also shows it filling back in quickly.
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Snow 32° in Glen Allen. The backfill is occurring especially the northern part of the “dry slot”.
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There will be the brine down already they use to treat this the roads for tonight and tomorrow.
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Same
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We could reach winter storm warning criteria in the Richmond area later tonight. Which means we could have a winter storm warning going on at the same time we are in a winter storm watch for Saturday lol. Haven’t seen anything like this since I lived in Northern Virginia in 2010.
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So did 12k -18z NAM 10:1 as shown. Now… I tend to look at "positive snow depth change" because it's more conservative and generally more accurate. It has 3" to maybe 4". However if you look at 18 Z NAM run from last night It had South Jersey at 3" on positive depth also but 4-6" on 10:1. I have family there and they were measuring 5 to 6 inches in Atlantic County and Cape May County this morning. Just an observation.
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3-6” final call. Obviously the lowest amounts south/SE of Richmond proper where more mixing could occur. I think 4 to 5 inches in the city north and west is very possible w lollies of 6”.
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100% correct.
