GaWx

12Z CMC: Pt Charlotte (a hair S of Icon) on Fri, which is N of the 0Z’s Naples and much slower than the Icon/GFS’s Wed

The faster the motion for a given intensity, the less strong the weaker side is with more asymmetry typically.

AN temps would be good for recovery efforts in hardest hit areas of the SE from Helene. The last thing they need is a harsh winter.

12Z Icon: near Pt Charlotte, which is further N than the 0Z/6Z that were between Ft Myers and Naples

If I am gauging the ensemble and op runs correctly, it appears a faster moving system comes in further north as it doesn't allow time for the mid-level steering flow to arc back ESE. A slower moving system gives time for the TC to get pushed further east than perhaps even ESE as the strong mid-level trough powers across the peninsula. You can even watch that flow evolve from the 850-400 hPa level and the mid-to-upper ST jet. That may explain why some of the slower modeling wants to bring this in down near Sarasota to even the Keys. Something to watch for with each modeling suite. The UKMET is as fast as the GFS but it is the furthest S.

Currently the GFS’ Tampa is a N outlier vs all of the other major models being Sarasota and well S. For Tampa’s sake hopefully the large majority end up being right. Remember Ian? The Euro, GFS, and CMC were Tampa to FL panhandle.

0Z Euro ~Port Charlotte, S of 12Z’s Sarasota

Icon has had landfall SW FL since way back with 12Z 10/1 run. UK has had SW landfall last 2 runs (first runs with this). The UK/ICON duo, especially UK, was furthest SE with Ian days in advance and were best by far. Euro and especially GFS/CMC were significantly too far NW (GFS/CMC had several runs way up in panhandle!) Food for thought. Euro next!

GFS OP could just as easily swing back to a weak system on the 06z, and I will beat a dead horse and reiterate that we may see big swing between mere 6 hour runs due to the tightrope in which this system will have to walk to become a strong hurricane. That being said, it is a bit ridiculous that a global operational run intensifies a system to the brink of major hurricane strength within 72 hrs from TCG. I really hope that's just a random crap OP run. The GFS so far is on its own with a central FL landfall: -UK, CMC, and ICON are all S of Ft. Myers -JMA 72 (end) implies SW FL most likely -GFS and CMC were way too far NW with Ian. Euro was also quite a bit too far NW but not as bad. UK (SW FL) was the best. Icon 2nd best.

0Z UK: best for track, not intensity! Much further S than GFS and near CMC. This goes ENE S of Naples (12Z was between Naples and Ft Myers). Reminds me of Ian, when UK was furthest S days in advance and ended up best with Icon 2nd: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 22.4N 91.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 07.10.2024 60 22.4N 91.0W 1003 30 0000UTC 08.10.2024 72 22.2N 89.3W 1001 27 1200UTC 08.10.2024 84 22.8N 87.4W 998 30 0000UTC 09.10.2024 96 23.6N 85.0W 997 31 1200UTC 09.10.2024 108 24.8N 82.5W 997 34 0000UTC 10.10.2024 120 26.5N 79.6W 998 36 1200UTC 10.10.2024 132 29.3N 75.2W 999 45 0000UTC 11.10.2024 144 30.6N 68.7W 1000 47 1200UTC 11.10.2024 156 31.7N 62.6W 1001 47 0000UTC 12.10.2024 168 32.8N 55.9W 1002 39

I forgot to post this earlier, the 12Z UK: (0Z out shortly) NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 23.8N 90.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 07.10.2024 72 23.8N 90.2W 1003 26 0000UTC 08.10.2024 84 23.6N 89.1W 1000 31 1200UTC 08.10.2024 96 25.0N 86.3W 998 31 0000UTC 09.10.2024 108 25.0N 84.8W 998 32 1200UTC 09.10.2024 120 26.7N 80.8W 999 35 0000UTC 10.10.2024 132 27.1N 78.6W 1002 38 1200UTC 10.10.2024 144 29.3N 69.9W 1004 35 0000UTC 11.10.2024 156 CEASED TRACKING

The last half of Sep through Oct has had a significant increase in mean ACE during the last 20 years while Aug-early Sep hasn’t seen this increase.

This lid coming off/4 week delayed peak was so well predicted by the Euro Weeklies a month in advance. These Weeklies (not the pre season Euro seasonals that predicted record ACE) have been absolutely stellar all season. These same Weeklies are predicting the 2nd half of Oct will drop sharply back to normal during a period when climo is dropping significantly meaning a peak of ~9/20-10/16. So, hopefully after this Gulf threat the CONUS at least will be safe though one more W Caribbean storm late this month wouldn’t be a shock. Also, there could always be an unpredictable/rogue very late threatening storm.

Hopefully this will convince believers that the conspiracy theories are fake news and keep the lies out of here like you requested. A conservative NC State Sen. is begging for folks to stop believing the junk: North Carolina State Sen. Kevin Corbin (R) denounced what he described as “conspiracy theory junk” circulating about flooding in western North Carolina from Hurricane Helene, referring to allegations about the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) stealing money from donations, among several others. “PLEASE help stop this junk. It is just a distraction to people trying to do their job. Folks, this is a catastrophic event of which this country has never known,” https://myfox8.com/news/north-carolina/lawmaker-on-helene-conspiracy-theories-please-help-stop-this-junk/amp/ @Daniel Boone

There’s a ton of fake news circulating. I recommend you and others treat with skepticism anything like this that you hear/read until if and when it can be verified by credible, non-politically biased sources. FEMA has per my Gov (Kemp) been very helpful. The FEMA rep I talked to was very helpful and completed my app.

I called FEMA. -Since March, FEMA has been paying $750 for food losses from storms. Must be done within 30 days of storm. Has nothing to do with whether you have NFIP. -For those in GA who are wondering, FEMA confirmed residents in certain counties in GA (including mine) can apply. -Fulton/Dekalb not on list (at least yet), but Richmond is as well as many others. You can still apply before your county is on list just in case it gets added later. -For all states call 800-621-3362 or apply online at http://disasterassistance.gov/ and click on the red. On phone they’ll tell you if your county is on list. - I think power had to be out 3 days but don’t hold me to that -Supposedly most get the $750 if power was out long enough. It is all or nothing. -If denied, can appeal

This was a silver lining of this horrible storm since relatively few homes/people were directly impacted by those horrific 140 mph winds. The lack of wx data where those very high winds occurred is a very small price to pay in comparison, of course. I’d think just about any empathetic person would take that every time besides the folks living there. The faster the speed of movement for a given strength of storm, the lower the winds on the weaker side typically.

1. Per NOAA monthlies, Aug 2024 didn’t have anywhere near record +PNA for Aug as it was only +0.63. Since 1950, 18 Augs had a stronger +NAO incl way higher in ‘22 and ‘18: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table 2. Per NOAA’s NAO table 2024’s drop Aug to Sep was still big but not as big as 1976, 1983, and 2022.

1 I’m not ignoring it and see no sign of it being ignored. I even posted that even a TS can have major effects, especially very heavy rain 2. Helene was upper end TS strength here and gave us 70% outages. I was out 5 days! 3. In the period when Helene was already forming there was talk here and elsewhere (including by pro met Webb) that she was looking to be messy/broad. So, we’ll see.

That one gave my area the heaviest IP/SN (2”) since 12/1989’s 3-5” and the heaviest liquid equiv of wintry precip (0.75” with 0.5” being ZR on 1/3/2018) since the predecessor to the Knickerbocker storm of 1/1922 that gave SAV the worst ZR on record. However, I haven’t had even a T of wintry since then. This drought of nearly 7 years of no wintry incl T is longest on record!

The reason I said Oct-Dec as most likely peak based on past is that peak has largely been at 4th-7th + month in a row. With June the 1st, 4-7 would be Sep-Dec. But last 16 peaks have been at 11+ amplitude. So, I highly doubt Sep’s +10 will be peak. Last time peak was 8th+ + month in row was 15 peaks ago (1993). But DJF will almost certainly still be well within +, regardless.

Chuck/others, The +8.61 was for Aug. Sep just updated and was +10.36. Based on past, highest chance for peak is within Oct-Dec with smaller chance JF. Even if peaks Oct, DJF should still be +: 2024 -24.56 -25.54 -28.56 -23.42 -6.52 1.95 6.91 8.61 10.36

But those weren’t the Weeklies. Rather, those were the Euro seasonal forecasts, which did along with some other seasonal models predict extreme ACE and thus have busted terribly. Ironically though despite ACE only near average now, this season has had extremely high impact in the CONUS unfortunately!

I strongly disagree about the Euro Weeklies. Although far from perfect (no model is close to perfect), the Weeklies correctly forecasted the active periods during summer followed by the very quiet late Aug-mid Sept. Then they forecasted correctly the big resurgence in late Sep weeks in advance! Furthermore, Isaac and TD 13 are already in existence. So, I don’t get why you’re saying they’ve busted badly on ACE when they’ve done about the opposite.

I finally got my power back just after 8:15 PM last night. Relief! The total outage here was 115 hours. The fridge and freezer were at 70F meaning most of the food was thrown out. Warmest it got inside was only 83 though it was very sticky. But relative to many other areas, this area got off lightly overall from Helene. About 13% in the area remain w/o power.