GaWx

0Z Euro: Tampa late Wed night

0Z UKMET appears to be a little S of Tampa and pretty similar to 12Z. Waiting on maps.

Each GFS run today has trended further S.

Total ACE in the Atlantic basin today was 9.3!

Milton has generated a whopping 6.8 ACE during the last 24 hours! Look for it to be even larger tomorrow.

Actually, I don’t have a lag theory. I read that the stability increase is supposedly instantaneous.

Thanks. Despite this, the SSN going way up to over 200 this month, and increased stability due to high solar supposedly without a lag, the Atlantic hurricane ACE will be at record high levels for the 2nd week of Oct.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 28.0N 76.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 09.10.2024 36 27.9N 76.2W 1003 31 1200UTC 09.10.2024 48 29.3N 71.7W 1004 29 0000UTC 10.10.2024 60 30.8N 67.0W 1005 29 1200UTC 10.10.2024 72 CEASED TRACKING

12Z main global runs: Icon: Tampa Wed night (a bit N of 6Z/0Z’s Sarasota) vs 6Z’s Wed night/0Z’s Wed afternoon CMC: Sarasota Thu AM (>24 hrs sooner than 0Z’s Fri AM)(N of 0Z’s Pt Charlotte) JMA: Sarasota Thu AM (similar location and later than yesterday’s 12Z’s Wed evening GFS: Port Richey (25 miles N of Tampa) Wed night (slightly S of 6Z’s Hudson and S of 0Z’s just N of Crystal River) UKMET: Bradenton, MUCH further N of 0Z’s Naples and stronger; late Wed evening (later than 0Z’s Wed afternoon) Euro: Tampa Wed night, near 6Z and just barely N of 0Z’s Bradenton; earlier than 6Z’s Thu morning but a little later than 0Z’s Wed evening *So, 12Z has much smaller range than 0Z from 25 miles N of Tampa (Port Richey) to 50 miles S of Tampa (Sarasota)..so only 75 miles vs 0Z’s range of 200 miles *From N to S 12Z: GFS, Icon/Euro, UKMET, CMC/JMA *Timing of 12Z: ranges from late Wed evening to Thu morning

0Z Icon: Sarasota (near 18Z/12Z runs) late afternoon Wed 0Z CMC: Pt Charlotte (a bit N of 12Z’s little S of Ft Myers) Fri morning 0Z GFS: just N of Crystal River (barely N of 18Z) very late Wed night 0Z UKMET: Naples (good bit S of 12Z’s Ft Myers) Wed afternoon Edit for Euro: 0Z Euro: Bradenton (barely S of 18Z/12Z’s Tampa) Wed evening Edit: N to S: GFS, Euro, Icon, CMC, UKMET -GFS remains quite a N outlier -UKMET is a pretty significant S outlier

All it really takes to cause massive outages and many trees and large branches to fall are mid to higher end TS winds. That’s what we had here in Savannah. There were a couple of gusts to minimal hurr strength, but the highest sustained were in the 50s though it admittedly seemed like a hurricane. That’s all it took to give us a big mess. Many don’t realize the power of TS winds.

The 18Z GFS landfalls near Crystal River (similar to 12Z) but isn’t til 11AM EDT on Thu! Those earlier CMC Fri landfalls aren’t looking quite as crazy as they were.

Fwiw here are the TC/STC tracks since 1851 for storms that formed 10/1-10:

After that further S track near Yucatan, 18Z Icon landfalls like the 12Z at Sarasota but it is delayed til very late Wed night.

Per model consensus, there’s a chance for a short-lived TC to form just E of FL from an area of convection and possible developing LLC currently in the E GOM ahead of Milton that would then move well OTS. (see IR image below). Is anyone else watching this? I’m watching this closely because it could have a non-trivial influence on Milton in some way(s). For example, the 12Z UKMET has a TC from this: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 27.6N 78.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.10.2024 48 27.6N 78.8W 1003 23 0000UTC 09.10.2024 60 28.6N 75.5W 1002 28 1200UTC 09.10.2024 72 30.0N 71.9W 1003 30 0000UTC 10.10.2024 84 32.3N 66.5W 1004 30 1200UTC 10.10.2024 96 35.3N 60.5W 1003 33 0000UTC 11.10.2024 108 38.9N 54.6W 999 37 1200UTC 11.10.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING

Now I can see the 6 hour maps. Today’s 12Z JMA is actually close to a Tampa ENE to N of Cape Canaveral path vs being near a Ft. Myers E to Jupiter path yesterday. That’s ~100/150 miles N of yesterday’s run on W/E coast. Also, just about all prior runs were landfalling on SW FL.

Thanks. I’m curious about it for several reasons: 1. It could be yet another NS adding a little bit more ACE during this upcoming week, a week that’s projected to be the most active 10/7-13 since at least 1951 coming on the heels of the 2nd most active 9/30-10/6 ACEwise. 2. Because the entire atmosphere is interconnected and because this wouldn’t be too far away from Milton, it’s conceivable that it could have more than a trivial influence on Milton in some way(s).

Per model consensus, there’s a chance for a short-lived TC to form just E of FL from an area of convection currently in the E GOM ahead of Milton that would then move well OTS. Is anyone else watching this? For example, the 12Z UKMET has a TC from this: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 27.6N 78.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.10.2024 48 27.6N 78.8W 1003 23 0000UTC 09.10.2024 60 28.6N 75.5W 1002 28 1200UTC 09.10.2024 72 30.0N 71.9W 1003 30 0000UTC 10.10.2024 84 32.3N 66.5W 1004 30 1200UTC 10.10.2024 96 35.3N 60.5W 1003 33 0000UTC 11.10.2024 108 38.9N 54.6W 999 37 1200UTC 11.10.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING

12Z JMA: N of earlier runs at ~Ft Myers to Pt Charlotte (waiting on 6 hour maps) vs between Naples and Ft. Myers on yesterday’s 12Z

-So, with Dec 3” or under (6 seasons), rest of season averaged 10.6” (range 2.3”-17.7”). Note, however, that 16-17 was only barely above 3” (at 3.2”) and the rest of the season had 27”. - For >3” in Dec (8 seasons), rest of season averaged almost 3 times as much, 30.1” (range 21.6”-64.1”)! - So, the high end of the Dec 3” or less rest of season range (17.7”) is actually lower than the low end of the rest of season range (21.6”) for Dec greater than 3” seasons! @donsutherland1

Strongest is highly likely too strong imo based on the clear tendency of these insanely strong hurricane model runs to often be 30-40 mb too strong. Of course even if 40 too strong, it would still be a very dangerous 930-940 cat 4+. Example: many runs for Helene were 900-910 and it verified a still very strong but more reasonable ~938.

12Z Euro: back N to Tampa from Sarasota 6Z/0Z and with it stronger than those runs. Landfall is near 8PM Wed.

Thanks. It is weird that Pivotal and WxBell for whatever reason tend to have much higher SLPs for GEFS and perhaps other ensemble members in general vs TT. I wonder why. I wouldn’t think that TT, itself, can run them at higher resolution. TT has most 12Z GEFS members in the 950s-970s vsPivotal’s/WxBell’s 980s to 990s. I guess the programming algos are different.

12Z GEFS tells me these things: - Mean further N than last few runs with it near Tampa - Only 4 of its 30 members (13%) are as far N as the operational - GEFS means continue for whatever reason to be S of the operational run. Anyone know why?

1. Yeah, CMC hasn’t been good. It along with the GFS was the worst for Ian with panhandle tracks only a couple of days before landfall! I feel that the CMC is the worst of the 5 most followed globals (even the JMA MAY be better overall) but still worthy of mention mainly for trend if for nothing else. 2. Meanwhile, the 12Z UKMET is out: I use mainly for track not intensity though it continues to trend stronger as it catches up like usual. It initialized its position well and landfalls further N than the 0Z’s Naples with it near or possibly slightly N of Ft. Myers per my estimate based on the text (see below). I’ll have to see the 6 hour maps later when they’re released to better pinpoint its landfall point but it’s clearly further N though still S of the ICON/GFS: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 06.10.2024 TROPICAL STORM MILTON ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 95.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 06.10.2024 0 22.5N 95.0W 1003 30 0000UTC 07.10.2024 12 22.0N 93.2W 1000 32 1200UTC 07.10.2024 24 21.6N 91.6W 997 37 0000UTC 08.10.2024 36 22.1N 89.3W 993 40 1200UTC 08.10.2024 48 23.0N 87.2W 989 41 0000UTC 09.10.2024 60 24.2N 85.1W 987 42 1200UTC 09.10.2024 72 26.2N 82.7W 987 48 0000UTC 10.10.2024 84 28.2N 80.1W 990 49 1200UTC 10.10.2024 96 29.4N 76.9W 987 71 0000UTC 11.10.2024 108 30.9N 70.9W 992 53 1200UTC 11.10.2024 120 30.6N 65.4W 1000 54 0000UTC 12.10.2024 132 30.6N 59.8W 1007 36 1200UTC 12.10.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING