GaWx

12Z Euro has some ZR: snow:

12Z Euro low track way too far NW for big SE snowstorm. Need further SE track than GFS like on 7 of 30 GEFS members

12Z GEFS: members 5, 7, 8, 10, 13, 22, 27 (7 of 30) have a further SE tracking low than GFS: 5-8, 10, 22, 25, 27 have notable snow outside mtns, with 6 of these 8 having a further SE low track than GFS (your best bet): Mean snow through 1/11:

Much of this in SE AL/SW GA is ZR with IP to the north below the snow with cold rain SC/SE GA and much of SC:

12Z Icon:

0Z EPS: slight increase some, decrease others:

ATL gets much of its qpf in ZR/IP due to 850s of +2 to +3 and thicknesses near 552:

Major changes on 0Z Euro! SW upper low gets ejected much earlier.

Easily the best GEFS run in awhile:

The 546 thickness line is often near the snow line in the SE. That keeps snow a bit north of ATL.

Yep, I’m guessing it will be as warm, if not warmer, than the 12Z with a too far NW track.

Except the warm SW winds at the sfc on the Euro AI: look in GA For same time on Icon in GA, they’re cold NE winds due to much higher pressure to the NE (more typical). That’s crazy disagreement! It’s fascinating to see that they’re opposites!

0Z Icon snow:

18Z Euro AI similar to GFS with 1-2” snow in good portion. This is another run with the unusual OH Valley low, which allow for warming SW winds, unusual for having a low in the Gulf. So, this allows for sfc temps to be warmer than usual when having precip with -3 to -4C 850s and thicknesses of 540:

18Z EPS: 30% of members are much quicker than Euro op in bringing precip toward the SE (aiming for ~1/10) than the 1/12 of the 12Z.

Furthermore, for the SE and especially compared to the last few years, is that really all that light? 0.5-1.5” over a pretty large area. Not anywhere near major but significant.

18Z GFS snow: and it’s all snow rather than IP/ZR since 850s are below 0C. Sfc low about 300 miles south of 12Z GFS.

Good chance. But 18Z GFS is actually colder than last run.

18Z GFS through 129: nothing noteworthy. Slightly colder push. Maybe will be colder when precip finally arrives in SE.

The last several consistently had an organized Gulf low with heavy precip.

12Z Euro AI is much drier as it has only a weak disturbance vs the well developed lows on recent runs:

See my edited post. I said the same.

I’d bet heavily that next week will be significantly colder than both 2/3-9 and 2/10-16 in the SE overall anomalywise. You should be happy because you don’t like cold unless it’s snowing and it usually isn’t snowing when cold.

They never said it was going to be 20 BN all next week. They had 1-2 days that cold (in and near 1/10-11). Their coldest Jan 6-12 run is this one (see below), which had mainly 12-15 BN in the SE. My point is that the Weeklies called for a cold period that week going back to forecasts issued 3 weeks ago after they had warmth in late Dec, which verified well. We’ll see how cold Jan 6-12 actually ends up being, of course, but it still looks solidly BN. Jan 10-11 are looking to come in less cold per recent trends but still solidly BN. It makes perfect sense to warm up a lot then per MJO, La Niña history, and indices’ trends looking well ahead.

Enjoy the cold while we have it because the Euro Weeklies, which have done very well overall recently (with the current cold that followed the prior warmth…all well predicted), today have it pretty mild throughout most of the lower 48 states Feb 3-16. Also, La Niña Febs are more often than not on the mild side.