GaWx

Webb's tables, which sometimes get updated even for years going way back, are the best I've seen regarding 3.4 for pre-1950. Also, I use the JMA (see link below) as a secondary source for pre-1950 even though it uses a variation of Nino 3 instead of 3.4. The JMA similar to Webb has 1925-6 as only lower end strong. Per these two sources, I feel very comfortable calling 1877-8 a super and pretty comfortable calling 1888-9 a super. I see no other definitive super pre-1950 although 1896-7 and 1930-31 are pretty close per both Webb and JMA while 1902-3 is pretty close per Webb. JMA: https://data.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5

Where are you seeing that 1925-6 was a super Nino? According to the Eric Webb table at the following link, the ONI maxed at just +1.5 (low end strong): https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

I'm still near a 20% chance for a NE US landfall for now.

Look at this Nino 1+2 plunge per OISST! It is pretty safe to say that the top is in (though nothing is certain). The model consensus agrees. Look for a short term correction, however, as usually occurs after a very steep move in whatever direction:

OHC has topped out for at least the time being:

Do you think there will be a DJF averaged -NAO (say -0.25 or lower) this winter? Those have been difficult to attain in recent decades for some reason with only 6 of the last 44 (14%) and only one of the last 12 winters having it. They were much more frequent from the middle 1950s through 1970s. This has been the case while at the same time summer -NAOs have become much more frequent meaning little or no correlation of winter -NAO to summer -NAO.

The 12Z UKMET is similar to recent runs with it moving N near 70W at 168.

The 12Z Euro at 192 is ~100 miles SSW of the 0Z Euro at 204 at the latitude of Cape Hatteras though many hundreds of miles OTS. The 12Z yesterday for the same time (216) was landfalling in E ME! It looks like Nova Scotia is going to be hit on this new run.

The first 8 days of Sep have averaged +1.55 per OISST in Nino 3.4 and it has recently been about the same as ERSST. Today's OISST is ~+1.5. Today's ERSST (if there were a daily) is almost definitely no lower than +1.4. In order for this "corrected" CFS to get this full Sep prediction of a mere +1.1 anywhere close to correct, Nino 3.4 would have to plunge to near +0.75 by ~Sep 25th.

I saw no more direct US hits on the 0Z EPS after hour 240. So, the hit % for the US went down from 24% on yesterday's 12Z to 14% on today's 0Z. ME remains at the highest risk of any US state per the EPS: Summary of recent EPS runs' US landfalls: 9/8 0Z: 7 (14%) 9/15-17 (6 ME, 1 NY) 9/7 12Z: 12 (24%) 9/15-19 (7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, 1 NJ) 9/7 0Z: 10 (20%) 9/15-18 (5 ME, 5 MA) 9/6 12Z: 3 (6%) 9/15-18 (2 ME, 1 MA) 9/6 0Z: 5 (10%) 9/5 12Z: 2 (4%) 9/5 0Z: 4 (8%) 9/4 12Z: 1 (2%) 9/4 0Z: 2 (4%)

This shows the UKMET having had the smallest mean absolute error for both 24 and 48 hours out and the Euro being second best for both timeframes.

0Z EPS through 240: not as many hits on US as 12Z run but there still were 7: 6 on ME and 1 on NY. There may not be any more US hits after 240. Nova Scotia gets clobbered even more than on the 12Z. Newfoundland also gets some direct hits in addition to leftovers from some of the Nova Scotia hits.

Ironically, the 0Z UKMET initialized Lee way down at 941 mb, which is much lower than the other major models! But just 12 hours later on the run, the SLP rises way up to 967! This run is pretty similar to the 12Z run with a recurve near 70W: HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 51.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 08.09.2023 0 17.1N 51.8W 941 110 1200UTC 08.09.2023 12 17.9N 53.9W 967 77 0000UTC 09.09.2023 24 19.2N 55.7W 969 81 1200UTC 09.09.2023 36 20.0N 57.7W 973 68 0000UTC 10.09.2023 48 20.8N 59.2W 970 65 1200UTC 10.09.2023 60 21.5N 60.8W 965 68 0000UTC 11.09.2023 72 22.3N 62.2W 961 74 1200UTC 11.09.2023 84 23.0N 64.0W 958 78 0000UTC 12.09.2023 96 23.6N 65.6W 952 84 1200UTC 12.09.2023 108 24.1N 67.3W 950 87 0000UTC 13.09.2023 120 24.3N 68.5W 944 87 1200UTC 13.09.2023 132 24.8N 69.5W 949 83 0000UTC 14.09.2023 144 25.9N 69.9W 944 94 1200UTC 14.09.2023 156 27.8N 70.3W 947 84 0000UTC 15.09.2023 168 29.7N 70.1W 944

It is the "lots to resolve" that makes for the most interesting forecast discussions! No landfall through 240 with Lee likely not even hitting Canada afterward.

At 168 of the 0Z Euro, Margot is 200 miles W of its 12Z 180 position while Lee is 200 miles S of its 12Z 180 location.

0Z CMC landfall Eastport, ME, on 9/16. Eastport has the largest tidal range of any place on the E coast by the way. On 9/16, the high tide is near 19 feet.

As earlier posted regarding the 12Z EPS through 240 excluding the operational, I counted 9 hitting the US: 5 ME, 3 MA, and 1 NY. After 240, I count 2 ME and 1 NJ. So, grand total for 12Z EPS is 12 (24%) meaning the most of any run yet with 7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, and 1 NJ with hit dates 9/15-19. Summary of recent EPS runs' US hits: 9/7 12Z: 12 (24%) 9/15-19 (7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, 1 NJ) 9/7 0Z: 10 (20%) 9/15-18 (5 ME, 5 MA) 12Z 9/6: 3 (6%) 9/15-18 (2 ME, 1 MA) 0Z 9/6: 5 (10%) 12Z 9/5: 2 (4%) 0Z 9/5: 4 (8%) 12Z 9/4: 1 (2%) 0Z 9/4: 2 (4%)

On Tuesday, you posted a link to Mario Ramirez showing the new Euro 3.4 ens members: https://twitter.com/Mario___Ramirez/status/1699126469518074024/photo/1 Based on eyeballing, Dec to me looks slightly warmer than Jan. Dec looks to me like it is ~2.30 while Nov and Jan look more like 2.25. So, I'm estimating based on this that the new Euro is at most 2.27ish for ONI peak. Last month's Euro was at 2.40. So, I'm thinking the Euro cooled. Now looking at Ben Noll's graph, I see that he has Jan as the warmest and up near 2.35 though it isn't as warm as the 2.5 that you mentioned. Also, Ben shows Dec and Feb to be ~same. But if you look at Mario's post, Feb is clearly cooler than Dec. Something seems to be a bit off. Maybe they're using different climo for baseline??

The 12Z JMA (an inferior model for the tropics) hit E ME just after hour 210 (early 9/16) while still having SLP in the 950s. (The prior 12Z hit just E in New Brunswick on 9/16.) I'm mentioning it because it agrees with the 12Z Euro on location although it is ~9 hours faster.

Regarding the 12Z EPS, I count a total of ~9 US hits excluding operational through 240 hours with ~5 hitting ME (excluding operational), ~3 hitting MA, and 1 hitting NY. Plus a couple more probably will hit on this run after 240. So, ~18%+ US hits on the 12Z EPS not including the operational, which means likely at least on par with the 20% of the previously most active 0Z of today. Or ~20%+ already if including operational. The point is that the significant increase in hits of the last run was maintained on this new run (12Z).

If the 12Z Euro were to happen to verify closely, the location of the highest E coast tidal range, Eastport, ME, would be very heavily affected by surge. So, the timing of any potential landfall near there in relation to high and low tide would make a larger difference there than at other locations on the US E coast. On Sept 16 for example, the predicted high tides are near 19 feet (just after midnight and noon): https://www.usharbors.com/harbor/maine/eastport-me/tides/

Indeed, E ME 966 mb on 9/16 at 18Z

12Z Euro 144 a whopping 41 mb weaker (960) than 0Z 156 (919) and barely ESE of the 0Z

So, you're going likely only a moderate RONI peak?