GaWx

Thanks. Keep in mind that I’m only talking about TCs that earlier crossed NW FL.

That’s not what I’m saying. I’m saying sharply turning around NW back into the SE coast like the 18Z GFS, earlier GFS/Euro, and many GFS/Euro ensemble members do. But you’re right about what you said.

I looked over past tracks of TCs back to 1851. Of those that moved from the GOM inland over W FL N of Tampa through the panhandle, I couldn’t find even one that then moved offshore SE US followed by a curl back NW back into the SE coast like the last few Euro/GFS runs. The closest I could find is Easy of 1950, which could have done it had it first gone offshore FL before curling back: So, whereas climo doesn’t tell me a curl back NW into the SE coast a la GFS/Euro can’t happen, it does tell me to not be surprised if that ends up not happening and to almost expect it to not.

These and others suggest 12Z Euro has just about as bad a huge rainfall total for SAV-CHS (15”+) (slightly lower most of corridor but still with insane max ~22”centered on HHI/Beaufort). Also, again a cat 1 H hits CHS.

True and that is encouraging although CC has favored increased max rainfall due to combo of some slowdown in avg speed of movement and higher dewpoints. Thinking about Harvey, Florence, Allison, etc.

Our saving grace would be for a UKMET type of movement, which has it already in NC by 120.

12Z UK: similar to 0Z with LF just E of Apalachicola; then NNE move to WC GA, then ENE/E to CHS, then turns up coast NNE into E NC followed by NE through VA, NE US, SE Can: not as bad flood threat vs other models due to less slowing SE US followed by accel. with it already in NC at 120 vs near GA/SC border GFS/CMC/0Z Euro: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 81.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.08.2024 0 21.9N 81.3W 1010 27 0000UTC 04.08.2024 12 24.2N 84.0W 1007 31 1200UTC 04.08.2024 24 26.2N 84.7W 1005 40 0000UTC 05.08.2024 36 27.8N 84.9W 1002 46 1200UTC 05.08.2024 48 29.1N 85.1W 1002 45 0000UTC 06.08.2024 60 30.3N 84.6W 1003 30 1200UTC 06.08.2024 72 32.0N 83.9W 1003 37 0000UTC 07.08.2024 84 32.6N 82.4W 997 38 1200UTC 07.08.2024 96 32.6N 80.2W 996 37 0000UTC 08.08.2024 108 33.0N 79.4W 995 40 1200UTC 08.08.2024 120 34.6N 78.8W 996 43 0000UTC 09.08.2024 132 35.8N 78.1W 998 36 1200UTC 09.08.2024 144 37.7N 76.2W 1000 44 0000UTC 10.08.2024 156 42.2N 72.2W 999 36 1200UTC 10.08.2024 168 47.2N 66.3W 996 35

0Z Euro: similar track to 12Z but stronger with it coming back into CHS at 986 mb vs 989 on 12Z; biblical rainfall amts of 20-24” mainly over ~72 hr period SAV-CHS and inland to 50 miles Lowcountry

0Z UK: landfall just E of 12Z’s Apalachicola; then goes inland further W into C GA then turns E to CHS, goes up SC coast and then well inland into NC; flooding threat many areas: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 23.5N 83.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 04.08.2024 24 23.5N 83.7W 1007 28 1200UTC 04.08.2024 36 25.7N 84.8W 1006 34 0000UTC 05.08.2024 48 27.4N 85.5W 1004 43 1200UTC 05.08.2024 60 28.8N 85.3W 1003 42 0000UTC 06.08.2024 72 29.9N 84.4W 1002 35 1200UTC 06.08.2024 84 31.4N 84.2W 1001 36 0000UTC 07.08.2024 96 32.5N 83.3W 997 37 1200UTC 07.08.2024 108 32.5N 81.1W 996 41 0000UTC 08.08.2024 120 32.8N 79.9W 994 43 1200UTC 08.08.2024 132 33.8N 79.5W 996 41 0000UTC 09.08.2024 144 35.3N 78.4W 998 39 1200UTC 09.08.2024 156 36.4N 78.5W 1001 38 0000UTC 10.08.2024 168 37.4N 76.6W 1002 36

Ok. Yes, you’re correct. 1007 mb into Big Bend. Strongest yet into Big Bend.

No, I see 989 at CHS. I don’t know what you’re looking at.

I agree that the very heavy rain threat is as of now the biggest danger from this. But even if you have just TS winds, the tree uprooting would be very bad.

It took awhile but it’s just started raining here with CTG lightning pretty closeby. But it didn’t last long. Thus I ended up with only 0.25”.

12Z Euro says not just a H hit at CHS but also a rainfall flooding disaster quite possible SAV to Georgetown, SC, with 10”+ amounts and inland a bit especially SC Lowcountry. Keep in mind that that area has had well above normal rainfall the last 2 weeks. Hopefully this run is way off.

12Z Euro, which is strongest yet into the FL Big Bend, goes offshore at Brunswick and then becomes the strongest in many runs offshore the SE US with a 988 mb H. Then it turns back W and hits CHS, SC, on THU as a 989 mb H before going well inland and weakening.

The 12Z Euro is a bit stronger (strongest of all runs into NW FL) and still has a FL Big Bend landfall.

It may not be fully relevant, but fwiw the CMC was too far left for the longest before finally changing from a MX final landfall for Beryl.

Thunderstorms already popping up all around this area. This is much earlier than most days of recent weeks. Been hearing thunder the last 10 minutes or so. Will it rain? So far it has been hit and miss pop ups and so that remains to be seen. The NWS has only 20% chances. Also, the dewpoints/HI are very high with upper 70s/108! Temps are in the low 90s. All conducive to the pop-ups.

12Z UKMET: first landfall Apalachicola; then would be potential disaster rainfall potential-wise, especially for SC/NC coasts due to a crawl up the coast CHS N and then back inland into coastal NC: this is to the left of the 0Z run, which was offshoreNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 24.8N 84.2WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 04.08.2024 48 25.5N 84.6W 1006 350000UTC 05.08.2024 60 27.4N 85.0W 1005 411200UTC 05.08.2024 72 29.2N 84.8W 1005 420000UTC 06.08.2024 84 30.3N 83.6W 1005 301200UTC 06.08.2024 96 31.7N 82.0W 1003 430000UTC 07.08.2024 108 32.4N 80.9W 999 371200UTC 07.08.2024 120 32.6N 80.0W 995 350000UTC 08.08.2024 132 33.1N 79.0W 993 411200UTC 08.08.2024 144 33.9N 78.4W 993 440000UTC 09.08.2024 156 34.1N 78.3W 994 451200UTC 09.08.2024 168 35.1N 78.3W 996 38

I had just over 12” in July, which is ~200% of normal with 9” of that just during just the last 2 weeks. All of GA/SC/NC was dominated by well above normal rainfall in July mainly from PM thunderstorms. Torrential rainfall from this next week, should it materialize, could be a more serious problem for the SE just due to how wet it has been.

then turns back W w/CHS landfall 228. Torrential rainfall upper GA/SC coasts.

Please post August 2024 obs here. Thanks.

12Z UKMET: slow mover (huge rainfall potential) that moves NNE with a landfall FL panhandle; turns E through N FL and then deepens offshore NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 27.9N 85.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 05.08.2024 96 28.9N 86.2W 1010 33 0000UTC 06.08.2024 108 29.2N 85.5W 1009 29 1200UTC 06.08.2024 120 31.2N 85.1W 1009 29 0000UTC 07.08.2024 132 30.1N 83.8W 1006 26 1200UTC 07.08.2024 144 30.8N 82.5W 1003 34 0000UTC 08.08.2024 156 31.0N 80.4W 997 46 1200UTC 08.08.2024 168 30.8N 79.5W 994 43

Yesterday’s thunderstorm could easily have qualified as severe imho due to high winds near the start. I can’t recall the last time I had a puddle just inside the foyer due to the wind blowing so hard (evidently right toward the door) allowing it to sneak underneath a despite it being a pretty tight space. Also, whereas I didn’t lose power, I saw a good number of traffic lights that were still out a couple of hours after the storm not too far from me. Yesterday’s rainfall at my place ended up at ~1”. That gave me a grand total of ~12.25” for July. What a stormy and wet month! This was the wettest month here since the similar 13.25" during August of 2022 (not that long ago). Just since July 19th, I got ~9.25”! The last time it was this wet here during that short a period was the 10” I got Sept. 1-10, 2022. June through Sept. 10 of 2022 was incredibly wet here, pushing the water table all of the way up, which lead to AC condensation drainage line backup. Inside the house I had a hottest of ~88 for the month and probably for all-time due to no AC for a couple of days.

0Z EPS: another further W shift with almost all in Gulf; most of these landfall NE Gulf but some go to NW Gulf