GaWx

0Z JMA tracks just E of Cape Cod to landfall WC ME late 9/16.

Meteo-France's Arpege big shift W from 12Z's Bay of Fundy/NB to 0Z's C ME

Some more 0Z runs: -Meteo-France big shift W from 12Z's Bay of Fundy/NB to 0Z's C ME -ICON similar to last two runs into SW NS early 9/17 973 mb -CMC 75 mile W shift to W NS at 988 mb early 9/17 -0Z JMA tracks just E of Cape Cod to landfall WC ME late 9/16 (slightly E of 12Z, which was on Cape Cod) 0Z Euro landfall E ME at 102 hours very early 9/17 975 mb

0Z UKMET shifted back E some to a landfall on SW NS 9/16 evening at 970 mb from the 12Z's track into the Bay of Fundy to NB.

0Z UKMET shifted back E some to a landfall on SW NS 9/16 evening at 970 mb from 12Z's track through Bay of Fundy to NB: HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 66.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 13.09.2023 0 24.7N 66.6W 939 85 1200UTC 13.09.2023 12 25.6N 67.5W 950 77 0000UTC 14.09.2023 24 27.3N 67.8W 947 82 1200UTC 14.09.2023 36 29.2N 68.4W 945 82 0000UTC 15.09.2023 48 31.5N 68.2W 945 73 1200UTC 15.09.2023 60 34.0N 67.8W 950 62 0000UTC 16.09.2023 72 37.2N 66.8W 955 73 1200UTC 16.09.2023 84 40.7N 66.8W 958 57 0000UTC 17.09.2023 96 43.7N 65.9W 970 48 1200UTC 17.09.2023 108 46.9N 63.8W 985 41 0000UTC 18.09.2023 120 49.0N 58.1W 993 34 1200UTC 18.09.2023 132 53.0N 45.8W 993 37 0000UTC 19.09.2023 144 POST-TROPICAL

I count ~15 on the 18Z EPS with a non-Maine US landfall, which is even more than the ~11 on the 6Z! There are still ~15 (30%) that landfall in Canada either in S NS or NB. That leaves ~21 (42%) first hitting ME.

Is there a NH landfall on record? Anyone know? The 18Z GEFS has one member that just about does that. Also, two of the 18Z EPS come within ~5-10 miles.

I'll look at the SE US with an extra emphasis on RDU and ATL to see how the SE US did during the six winters you listed: 2016-7: mild overall w/very little SE SN, moderate ZR 1/7 RDU followed by 9F on 1/9; very different ENSO (Niña) 2015-6: mild D; NN to slightly BN J/F; overall DJF AN; very little SE SN but sig ZR 1/22 RDU 2009-10: coldest winter in SE since 1977-8; quite wintry all over with ~1" SN down to Savannah! snowiest winter ATL area since the 3/1993 blizzard; a grade A SE winter 1993-4: cold DJ with 2F RDU 1/19; NN F; 12/22-3 3" SN RDU; sig ZR RDU 2/11; ~avg overall wintry precip; different ENSO (neutral) 1962-3: near wall to wall cold DJF; 12/13: ATL 1F, RDU 4F, damaging orange freeze FL; 12/24-5: major ZR ATL-RDU; 1/24: ATL -3F, RDU: 7F; 1/29: RDU 8F; RDU 6.9" SN followed by 9F 2/27; ATL: 8F 2/22; different ENSO (cold neutral) 1958-9: temps: BN D; NN J; AN F; 12/11: 9.1" SN RDU and 7F on 12/16; ATL 9F on 1/5; RDU moderate ZR 2/3 Overall grades for SE: a mix with avg between B and C 2016-7 F 2015-6: D (Nino) 2009-10: A (Nino) 1993-4: B 1962-3: A 1958-9: B (Nino)

Possibly due to its own cooling of waters ahead of the center's path due to the combo of slow movement (7 mph) and very large size (H winds 125 miles from center). It is a very large and strong beast. A very large major hurricane needs a lot of fuel just to maintain its status. But it's likely using up the warm water fuel too fast to clear the eye with its slow movement and may need fresh warm water to restrengthen, which isn't in the cards due to continued slow movement. That's my educated guess fwiw.

What do you think are the chances of the -NAO carrying over to this winter? Consider these stats: -These 13 -NAO summers since 1950 didn't carryover and actually did the opposite in going to +NAO winters: 2019, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2011, 2007, 1998, 1993, 1987, 1980, 1974, 1960, 1956 (only 3 of these 13 cases were El Niño fwiw) -These 5 -NAO summers were followed by neutral NAO winters: 2012, 2008, 2000, 1952, 1950 (none of these cases were El Niño fwiw) -These 10 -NAO summers did carryover to a winter -NAO: 2020, 2010, 2009, 1977, 1968, 1963, 1962, 1958, 1957, 1954 (6 of these 10 cases were El Niño fwiw) Per the above sets of stats, only 3 of the 16 -NAO summers since 1980 (era of +NAO dominated winters) carried over to a -NAO winter: 2020, 2010, and 2009. But 7 of the 12 -NAO summers 1950-1979 (era of -NAO winters) did carryover. Also, these were the 11 strongest -NAO summers prior to 2023 (all sub -1.00 averaged out like 2023 was): 2019, 2016, 2015, 2012, 2011, 2009, 2008, 1998, 1993, 1980, 1958. Only 2 of these 11 carried over to a -NAO winter (2009 and 1958, which fwiw were both El Niño). **Edit for this based on above data: (Pre) El Niño -NAO summers (9 of them): 2015, 2014, 2009, 1987, 1977, 1968, 1963, 1958, 1957. Of these, 6 of the 9 carried over to a winter -NAO though the most recent two didn't fwiw. So, perhaps it being El Niño helps the chances to some extent despite the most recent two not doing so. NAO by month: (I'm counting between +0.25 and -0.25 as neutral) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

EPS prior two runs: The very active 0Z EPS still had only 4 (8%) of members hit the NE US outside of ME. The 6Z EPS had ~11 (22%)! That was by far the highest % with US landfalls outside of ME for any EPS. 12Z EPS: is back down to ~5 MA landfalls. ME still has a bunch though I think they decreased some. So, the new EPS is still quite active in regard to NE US landfalls but the mean track did shift a bit E vs the 6Z.

EPS prior two runs: The very active 0Z EPS still had only 4 (8%) of members hit the NE US outside of ME. The 6Z EPS had ~11 (22%)! That was by far the highest % with US landfalls outside of ME for any EPS. 12Z EPS: is back down to ~5 MA landfalls. ME still has a bunch though I think they decreased some. So, the new EPS is still quite active in regard to NE US landfalls but the mean track did shift a bit E vs the 6Z.

Thanks for posting. Last month's UKMET NDJ 3.4 was right at +2.00 per this: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table This new UKMET per eyeballing looks slightly cooler (compare the two images posted below). If you look closely at each month of NDJF, you can see that the mean of the members is a little below the +2.00 line with Jan the closest/barely under +2.00 per eyeballing. I think the peak (looks like DJF) is at or just cooler than +1.90 meaning a cooling of at least 0.10 imo vs last month. We should get a confirmation of exactly what it is within the next 10 days at the Columbia ENSO site. So, this means that the Euro, JMA, and UKMET have all cooled since last month's runs between 0.1 and 0.2 imo for the ONI peak. The inferior CFS cooled 0.35 (probably too cool imo) while the too warm this summer BoM stayed the same (almost definitely significantly too warm imo). New UKMET 3.4: looks like ~+1.90 peak to me Last month's UKMET: exactly +2.00 for NDJ

Two additional 12Z op runs: UKMET: Bay of Fundy/NB early 9/17 Meteo-France: Bay of Fundy/NB 9/16 PM

Some additional 12Z op runs: UKMET: Bay of Fundy/NB early 9/17 Meteo-France: Bay of Fundy/NB 9/16 PM JMA: Cape Cod 9/16 PM KMA: SW NS 9/16 PM

Do you mean slightly east? It looks like to me that the 12Z Euro at 96 is barely E of the 0Z Euro at 108.

For the second 12Z run in a row, the inferior JMA goes over Cape Cod: Yesterday's 12Z JMA was similar but ~6 hours faster:

As your map shows, the slightly BN SE US DJF is the only BN for any land area in the entire world! That's encouraging but also alarming since it reflects on the warming globe. Do you or does anyone else know what baseline this JMA map uses for normal? Edit: I found it at the JAMSTEC site: 1991-2020.

12Z GEFS has one US landfall on Cape Cod vs the 2 MA landfalls on the 6Z. But there are ~7 on ME for a total of ~8 (26%), an increase over the 5 total US landfalls of the 6Z and the 4 total US of the 0Z.

12Z GEFS has one US landfall on Cape Cod vs the 2 MA landfalls on the 6Z. But there are ~7 on ME for a total of ~8 (26%), an increase over the 5 total US landfalls of the 6Z and the 4 total US of the 0Z.

The very active 0Z EPS still had only (4) 8% of members hit the US outside of ME. The 6Z EPS had 11 (22%)! That is by far the highest % with US landfalls outside of ME for any EPS.

Yes, thank you. I just corrected it. So, whereas the 0Z EPS had only 8% hit the US outside of ME, the 6Z EPS had 22%! That is by far the highest % with US landfalls outside ME for any EPS.

1. The 6Z GEFS was pretty similar to the 0Z GEFS except there was actually a slight increase vs 0Z up to 5 US landfalls vs 4 including 2 MA hits vs 0 MA on the 0Z. So, I didn't see the E shift on the 6Z GEFS vs 0Z that you saw although the 6Z GEFS (19% US hits) is still not as active as the EPS (31%+). 2. Whereas the 6Z Euro shifted slightly E of the 0Z Euro, the 6Z EPS actually shifted even further W vs the 0Z EPS. Check out MA, for which the 0Z EPS had 4 landfalls. The 6Z EPS has ~8 MA landfalls in addition to 2 on the RI/MA border and another offshore ready to come in as of the end of the run! So, whereas the 0Z EPS had 4 US landfalls outside of ME, the 6Z EPS has ~11 of those!

1. The 0Z Euro hits the C ME coast ~8AM on 9/17 at 972 mb. 2. The 0Z EPS looks like it has the highest % of members with a US landfall yet. There are so many that it will be very hard to count them. Most by far are in ME. It looks like ~4 in MA. I'm roughly guessing 12-15 in ME, where the rest of them are. 3. The odd thing is that the 0Z GEFS had the smallest # of US hits in quite awhile with only 4 (13%) vs the 0Z EPS' ~31%+! 4. Also odd is that the 0Z GEPS has only one US hit, the smallest # on a GEPS since way back at the 0Z 9/9 run! 5. Also odd is that the 0Z Euro is the only 0Z op model that hit the US. The GFS barely missed and the others were further away.

0Z UKMET: gets down to 937 mb tomorrow evening, lowest yet for the restrengthening peak; a little further E track leading to landfall in W NS vs going into Bay of Fundy before NB landfall on 12Z run: HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N 64.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 12.09.2023 0 23.9N 64.4W 945 82 1200UTC 12.09.2023 12 24.2N 65.8W 952 84 0000UTC 13.09.2023 24 24.8N 66.6W 937 89 1200UTC 13.09.2023 36 26.0N 67.2W 946 83 0000UTC 14.09.2023 48 27.6N 67.5W 943 83 1200UTC 14.09.2023 60 29.5N 68.0W 945 77 0000UTC 15.09.2023 72 31.7N 67.8W 941 78 1200UTC 15.09.2023 84 34.2N 66.8W 953 66 0000UTC 16.09.2023 96 37.8N 65.9W 958 76 1200UTC 16.09.2023 108 41.4N 65.6W 963 59 0000UTC 17.09.2023 120 44.7N 65.3W 977 45 1200UTC 17.09.2023 132 47.6N 63.5W 989 39 0000UTC 18.09.2023 144 49.8N 60.3W 994 33 1200UTC 18.09.2023 156 51.2N 54.1W 998 38 0000UTC 19.09.2023 168 CEASED TRACKING