GaWx

 This 2nd Danny band is a doozy here in SAV, Ga, with lots of CTG lightning, some very closeby, and heavy rains. I hope I don't lose power!

Center aiming for Hilton Head or just north. Thunderstorms again here in SAV now with this 2nd  band. Skies are dark. Winds are light.

2PM PDT vs 24 hours ago:

Portland 112 (+3)(warmed 2 last hour)

SeaTac      103 (+5) (warmed 4 last hour)

Pendleton 109 (+2)(no change last hour)

Walla Walls 107 (-2)(warmed 1 last hour)

Spokane 101 (0)(warmed 2 last hour)

Yakima 105 (+1)(warmed 2 last hour)

Per radar and trends, we (SAV) look to get the heaviest rainfall from a couple of bands on the west/SW side of Danny starting shortly and going for a couple of hours on and off. I wouldn't want to be driving then as tropical bands like this are often very heavy. It looks to be coming at a bad time, drive home time. So far, only occasional very light rain has fallen with light winds but is getting dark now.

1PM PDT vs 24 hours ago:

Portland 110 (+6)(warmed 5 last hour)

SeaTac      99 (+3) (cooled 3 last hour)

Pendleton 109 (+3)(warmed 4 last hour

Walla Walls 106 (0)(warmed 1 last hour)

Spokane 99 (+1)(warmed 1 last hour)

Yakima 103 (+1)(cooled 1 last hour)

Noon PDT vs 24 hours ago:

Portland 105 (+7)

SeaTac      102 (+8)

Pendleton 105 (-1)

Walla Walla 105 (+2)

Spokane 98 (+3)

Yakima 104 (+3)

52 minutes ago, GaWx said:

A little good news. The 4 PM Washington and Oregon readings that I've been following were all either the same or cooler than 3 PM.

 Here's something weird. After all of the 6 stations in Wash/Ore either dropped 1-3 F or were steady the previous hour, they all rose 1-2 F this most recent hour (5 PM PDT)! The hottest hourly of the day was reached at both Portland (112) and Yakima (107).

B.C. heat wave shatters Canadian record for highest temperature ever recorded | CBC News

 This also says new Canada record of 46.1C but could it also be wrong?

 

A little good news. The 4 PM Washington and Oregon readings that I've been following were all either the same or cooler than 3 PM.

1 PM PDT vs 24 hours ago:

Portland 104 (+11)

SeaTac      96 (+4)

Pendleton 106 (+5)

Walla Walls 106 (+5)

Spokane 98 (+5)

Yakima 102 (+2)

As of Noon PDT vs 24 hours earlier, this is how much hotter it is:

Portland 7 F

SeaTac 6 F

Pendleton 6 F

Walla Walla 5 F

Spokane 4 F

Yakima (airport) 2 F

 

 My feeling is that if they’re going to investigate this that it be today rather than tomorrow afternoon, when it would already be nearly onshore.

 Looking at 10AM PDT readings vs 24 hours ago:

 Portland, Walla Walla, Pendleton, and Yakima are 6 F warmer.

Spokane area is 4-5 F warmer. SeaTac is 3 F warmer.

 Keep in mind that June records were already obliterated in Portland, Seattle-Tac, and other locations yesterday!

@donsutherland1and others,

 Do I think AGW is contributing to this? I strongly feel that way. The globe is ~2F warmer than it was just since the 1970s and ~3 warmer than 1900 if I’m not mistaken. And this is the fourth extreme heatwave just this month to go along with Desert SW, N Plains, and Russia as Don pointed out. But is the likely contribution to this more than, say, 2-3F? That’s impossible to know. One thing that is an additional major contributor is the widespread drought in the area (see below), likely caused largely by La Niña, combining with the very anomalous Pacific NW ridge.

  Do y’all think the AGW contribution to this heatwave is likely more than ~2-3F? Do you think that the widespread W US drought is a bigger contributor? I'm strongly suspecting it is based on the physics of air heating up more over drier soils due to their much lower specific heat levels. Would we be looking at a historic heatwave had there been no drought? I have a lot of doubt about that and also suspect that there wouldn't be as strong a ridge there without the drought. Also, note that the 3 big US heatwaves have all occurred in widespread drought regions as per the map below:

19 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Lines up well with population increase

 It appears you're indirectly referring to UHI, which I think is a legitimate significant factor for Phoenix in addition to AGW as I mentioned. But keep in mind that UHI mainly affects minimums. The increase in average maximums is likely mainly related to AGW imo and Don mainly emphasized maximums.

@donsutherland1, excellent analyses from one of the best and most objective analyzers of data here.

 As much as I like your posts ITT, I think they would have been even better if you had mentioned the very likely additional significant role of UHI on mainly Phoenix’s minimum temperatures. I assume you’d agree that UHI has contributed much more to higher minimums than to higher maximums and is I believe the main reason why minimums have increased by a significantly higher amount vs the increase for maximums. So, I feel that higher minimums are due to a combo of UHI and AGW, with each having significant effects.

 For this reason, in order to get the best feel for AGW’s effects independent of UHI, I tend to focus only on maximums as I believe that the vast majority of those increases has been due to AGW. To be fair, you have focused much more on those.

On 12/16/2019 at 4:21 PM, donsutherland1 said:

The high temperatures at Yakutat, Alaska for the past three days and for today (preliminary value) were:

December 13: 56° (old record: 49°, 2017)
December 14: 58° (old record: 49°, 2017)
December 15: 61° (old record: 48°, 2005)
December 16: 57° (old record: 50°, 2005)

All four days exceeded the previous December record high temperature of 52°, which had been set on December 8, 1960. The 61° temperature yesterday broke the meteorological winter record of 58°, which was set on January 19, 1930 and tied on December 14, 2019 and was also above the November monthly record of 59°, which was set on November 1, 1947. Prior to yesterday, the latest 60° temperature on record occurred on October 13, 1969 when the temperature reached 60°. Daily records go back to May 1, 1917.

 

Hi Don,

 I respect you immensely and therefore feel the need to tell you that it looks like there’s a major problem with the Yakutat temperature sensor. Please check out this link to hourlies for the last few days:

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/PAYA.html

 

a t e	Time (akst)	Wind (mph)	Vis. (mi.)	Weather	Sky Cond.	Temperature (ºF)				Relative Humidity	Wind Chill (°F)	Heat Index (°F)	Pressure		Precipitation (in.)
						Air	Dwpt	6 hour					altimeter (in)	sea level (mb)	1 hr	3 hr	6 hr
								Max.	Min.
17	17:53	E 5	10.00	Overcast	BKN037 OVC055	36	29			76%	32	NA	29.33	993.3
17	16:53	NE 7	10.00	A Few Clouds	FEW029	35	28			76%	29	NA	29.34	993.6
17	15:53	E 3	10.00	Mostly Cloudy	SCT030 SCT040 BKN050	36	30			79%	NA	NA	29.35	993.8
17	14:53	E 9	10.00	Overcast	OVC036	36	30			79%	29	NA	29.36	994.2
17	13:53	E 8	10.00	Light Rain	OVC040	36	30			79%	30	NA	29.37	994.6
17	12:53	E 6	10.00	Light Rain	FEW027 BKN040 OVC055	35	32			89%	30	NA	29.37	994.5
17	11:53	Calm	10.00	Light Rain	BKN038 OVC045	NA	NA			NA	NA	NA	29.36	994.4
17	10:53	Calm	10.00	Mostly Cloudy	SCT046 BKN055	NA	NA			NA	NA	NA	29.35	994.1
17	09:53	NE 3	10.00	Mostly Cloudy	BKN050	NA	NA			NA	NA	NA	29.35	994.1
17	08:53	Calm	10.00	Partly Cloudy	SCT085	NA	NA			NA	NA	NA	29.33	993.4
17	07:53	Calm	10.00	Partly Cloudy	SCT120	NA	NA			NA	NA	NA	29.33	993.4
17	06:53	Calm	10.00	Mostly Cloudy	BKN110	NA	NA			NA	NA	NA	29.34	993.7
17	05:53	Calm	10.00	Partly Cloudy	SCT110	NA	NA			NA	NA	NA	29.36	994.4
17	04:53	Calm	10.00	Partly Cloudy	SCT100	NA	NA			NA	NA	NA	29.38	995.1
17	03:53	NE 5	10.00	A Few Clouds	FEW038	NA	NA			NA	-11	NA	29.41	996.1
17	02:53	E 3	10.00	Mostly Cloudy	BKN044	NA	NA			NA	NA	NA	29.44	997.1			0.01
17	01:53	NE 5	10.00	Overcast	SCT034 OVC042	NA	NA			NA	-11	NA	29.47	998.1
17	00:53	E 5	10.00	Mostly Cloudy	BKN028	NA	NA			NA	-11	NA	29.50	999.1
16	23:53	NE 7	10.00	Overcast	BKN026 OVC033	NA	NA			NA	-13	NA	29.54	1000.5	0.01	0.01
16	22:53	NE 8	10.00	Overcast	BKN023 BKN036 OVC044	NA	NA			NA	-14	NA	29.57	1001.5
16	21:53	E 9	10.00	Overcast	OVC021	NA	NA			NA	-15	NA	29.58	1001.8
16	20:53	E 8	10.00	Overcast	BKN020 BKN025 OVC033	NA	NA			NA	-14	NA	29.60	1002.5			0.07
16	19:53	NE 7	10.00	Mostly Cloudy	FEW018 SCT025 BKN120	NA	NA			NA	-13	NA	29.61	1002.9
16	18:53	NE 7	10.00	Overcast	FEW021 BKN055 OVC110	NA	NA			NA	-13	NA	29.62	1003.2
16	17:53	E 6	10.00	Overcast	SCT018 OVC120	NA	NA			NA	-12	NA	29.64	1003.9	0.01	0.07
16	16:53	Calm	5.00	Light Rain	BKN017 OVC023	NA	NA			NA	NA	NA	29.65	1004.2	0.04
16	15:53	E 7	10.00	Overcast	OVC011	NA	NA			NA	-13	NA	29.66	1004.6	0.02
16	14:53	E 5	4.00	Rain	BKN009 OVC013	NA	NA			NA	-11	NA	29.67	1004.9	0.08		0.24
16	13:53	E 10	8.00	Light Rain	OVC008	NA	NA			NA	-16	NA	29.66	1004.6
16	12:53	E 8	10.00	Overcast	OVC006	NA	NA			NA	-14	NA	29.66	1004.6	0.07
16	11:53	E 9	3.00	Light Rain	FEW008 BKN013 OVC023	48	38			68%	44	NA	29.64	1003.7	0.06	0.09
16	10:53	E 9	3.00	Light Rain	OVC012	52	37			57%	NA	NA	29.63	1003.3	0.03
16	09:53	E 8	3.00	Light Rain Fog/Mist	OVC016	37	36			96%	31	NA	29.61	1002.7
16	08:53	E 10	10.00	Light Rain	OVC033	37	35	57	37	93%	30	NA	29.59	1002.1	0.04		0.13
16	07:53	E 8	9.00	Light Rain	OVC027	37	35			93%	31	NA	29.58	1001.8	0.04
16	06:53	E 5	10.00	Light Rain	OVC026	48	35			61%	46	NA	29.58	1001.8	0.02
16	05:53	SE 3	10.00	Light Rain	OVC030	51	33			50%	NA	NA	29.58	1001.5	0.01	0.03
16	04:53	SE 7	10.00	Light Rain	OVC034	55	32			42%	NA	NA	29.57	1001.3	0.01
16	03:53	SE 7	10.00	Light Rain	OVC034	55	34			45%	NA	NA	29.55	1000.7	0.01
16	02:53	E 9	10.00	Light Rain	OVC048	56	33	61	42	42%	NA	NA	29.52	999.8
16	01:53	E 5	10.00	Overcast	OVC046	50	28			43%	48	NA	29.53	1000.0
16	00:53	NE 6	10.00	Light Rain	OVC050	55	27			34%	NA	NA	29.53	1000.0
15	23:53	E 5	10.00	Overcast	OVC050	53	27			37%	NA	NA	29.54	1000.4
15	22:53	E 6	10.00	Overcast	OVC060	53	25			34%	NA	NA	29.55	1000.7
15	21:53	E 7	10.00	Overcast	OVC060	49	25			39%	46	NA	29.56	1001.0
15	20:53	NE 12	10.00	Overcast	BKN070 OVC090	51	24	60	36	35%	NA	NA	29.58	1001.6
15	19:53	E 6	10.00	Overcast	FEW055 BKN070 OVC100	58	26			29%	NA	NA	29.61	1002.8
15	18:53	E 6	10.00	Overcast	OVC055	51	27			39%	NA	NA	29.64	1003.6
15	17:53	E 5	10.00	Mostly Cloudy	BKN055	49	28			44%	47	NA	29.65	1004.2
15	16:53	SE 5	10.00	Overcast	OVC055	54	29			38%	NA	NA	29.68	1005.0
15	15:53	E 3	10.00	Mostly Cloudy	FEW050 BKN060 BKN075	37	30			76%	NA	NA	29.70	1005.9
15	14:53	Calm	10.00	Partly Cloudy	SCT046	40	29	56	40	65%	NA	NA	29.73	1006.7
15	13:53	E 6	10.00	Overcast	FEW049 OVC065	49	30			48%	46	NA	29.76	1007.8
15	12:53	NE 8	10.00	Mostly Cloudy	BKN035 BKN046	43	30			60%	38	NA	29.78	1008.5
15	11:53	NE 8	10.00	Overcast	SCT033 BKN040 OVC047	52	31			45%	NA	NA	29.81	1009.4
15	10:53	E 9	10.00	Overcast	BKN040 OVC048	56	29			36%	NA	NA	29.83	1010.0
15	09:53	E 6	10.00	Light Rain	OVC041	54	29			38%	NA	NA	29.84	1010.4
15	08:53	E 6	10.00	Overcast	FEW033 BKN046 OVC060	51	30	54	41	45%	NA	NA	29.84	1010.4
15	07:53	E 6	10.00	Mostly Cloudy	BKN048 BKN065	51	30			45%	NA	NA	29.84	1010.6
15	06:53	NE 8	10.00	Overcast	OVC048	46	30			54%	42	NA	29.86	1011.0
15	05:53	NE 9	10.00	Overcast	OVC046	47	31			54%	43	NA	29.87	1011.6
15	04:53	NE 7	10.00	Overcast	OVC044	47	31			54%	44	NA	29.89	1012.1
15	03:53	NE 6	10.00	Overcast	OVC043	47	31			54%	44	NA	29.90	1012.5
15	02:53	NE 7	10.00	Overcast	OVC046	49	31	51	38	50%	46	NA	29.91	1012.7
15	01:53	E 5	10.00	Overcast	OVC048	43	31			63%	40	NA	29.92	1013.3
15	00:53	NE 6	10.00	Overcast	OVC048	46	31			56%	43	NA	29.93	1013.6
14	23:53	E 5	10.00	Overcast	OVC047	46	32			58%	44	NA	29.94	1013.7
14	22:53	E 3	10.00	Overcast	FEW024 BKN039 OVC049	46	32			58%	NA	NA	29.94	1013.7
14	21:53	E 6	10.00	Overcast	FEW026 SCT037 OVC047	50	32			50%	48	NA	29.94	1013.7
14	20:53	E 3	10.00	Overcast	OVC034	50	32	55	39	50%	NA	NA	29.94	1013.9
14	19:53	E 3	10.00	Mostly Cloudy	BKN120	55	32			42%	NA	NA	29.94	1014.0
14	18:53	NE 6	10.00	Mostly Cloudy	BKN038	46	34			63%	43	NA	29.95	1014.3
D a t e	Time (akst)	Wind (mph)	Vis. (mi.)	Weather	Sky Cond.	Air	Dwpt	Max.	Min.	Relative Humidity	Wind Chill (°F)	Heat Index (°F)	altimeter (in

Don, here are just 2 examples of hourlies that look bogus:

1. 16:53 on 12/15 is at 54 F, a rise of a whopping 17 in one hour from the 37 the previous hour while overcast?? That can’t be. And the winds didn’t change much. Light E to light SE. So, no major warm front/airmass change it would appear.

 

2. At 9:53 on Dec 16th it was 37 and it then rose a whopping 15 in one hour under light rain to 52 with continued light E winds.

 

 I may post more later about the problems with this station when time permits.

 

 

 

 

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/whats-behind-the-floods-in-texas-and-heat-in-india/

So, no mention of the current El Niño being a factor at all? Even the alarmists have to admit that this is a gross misrepresentation!

Paywall. Meh.

 

We'd have to see how he reconciles all the components. It is certainly not in line with most of the literature which places a large majority of the warming in the 20th century as anthropogenic. There's a lot of studies that place the majority of the warming in the early 20th century on natural variation from a combo of increased solar activity, decreased volcanic activity and internal variability in the oceans...but there is still a smaller anthropogenic component and then you have the post-1950 warming which is mostly anthropogenic.

ORH,

But what about the fact that 1950-2000 was by a good margin the most active 50 years for solar in at least 350 years? I still wonder about that possibly having contributed a significant % of the 1950-2000 warming. Possible? I'm admittedly still waiting for a cooldown to finally commence in the wake of the recent very slow cycle.

http://dailycaller.com/2015/05/22/former-un-lead-author-global-warming-caused-by-natural-variations-in-climate/

"'This suggests that while some portion of the temperature change observed in the 20th century was probably caused by greenhouse gases, there is a strong likelihood that the major portion was due to natural variations,' Lloyd wrote in his study."

Any comments? Anything to this? This is from a former lead author of a UN intergovernmental panel on climate change.

I personally still question how much could have been due to the most active 50 year period solar wise in 350+ years during 1950-2000 though I'm still waiting for evidence of a cooldown to finally get going in the wake of the slow most recent solar cycle.

We'd have to see a noticeable cooling by 2017-2018 or so because by that point, we'd be more than 3 years beyond the weak solar max we had in cycle 24. It's been argued by some that the weak solar maxes are more important than the mins during decreased acitivty...so you can pretty much discard the theory if by 2018 the effects of the weak max and subsequent min have not been felt to a significant degree. I'm fairly skeptical though on it having a large impact. We may see a muted effect like we did from 2008-2012...we'll find out soon enough.

I agree with about a 2018 deadline to finally see some cooling impact from a solar minimum. That's been near my put up or shut up time for a few years in this forum.

Actually, the instrumental record shows the first decade of the 20th century as colder than what we know of the 2nd half of the 19th century...there was a pretty signficiant cooling that occurred during the AMO drop and solar minimum:

This late 19th century and early 20th century cooling during that solar minimum with what could be some lag then getting started combined with the idea that the 2nd half of the 20th century had the most active sun of any 50 year period in at least 350 years (which coincided well with the strong warming during that period) has been telling me to at least be open-minded about the potential amount of cooling effect from the likely upcoming grand solar minimum. However, the longer we go over just the next few years without at least a sign of any cooldown, the less likely in my mind that we'll ever get much cooling from any grand solar minimum. It is getting close to put up or shut up time IMO as regards the sun.

CA drought being blamed on CC. Any comments?

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/at-the-edge/2015/04/14/climate-change-and-the-california-drought

Blaming the hurricane formation, I agree.  It almost certainly would have been a tropical cyclone in the absence of AGW.  Suggesting they were stronger and more damaging than the otherwise would be?  I disagree.  I think there is a physical basis there that one can't overlook.  In fact, to write off a potential correlation is very foolhardy given the small amount of data we have.  As I said before, whether or not it's actually occurring in practicality can not be proven given the small dataset we have in many of these basins.

 

This is just about hurricanes though.  As other extremes have been statistically proven to have increased.

 

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/earth/climate-change-sandy.html

 

 How do you explain that GA hasn't had a single H hit nearly as bad as the multiple major hits throughout the 1800's in over 100 years and not near the frequency? I could just as easily say there's some significance to that but I won't because there's no way to know the reason. It could just as easily be due mainly to randomness. 

One data set I've used as a proxy for extreme events is the state records for hottest and coldest days, and wettest/driest years, 200 records in all.  Two caveats:  First, the smaller number of recording locations prior to 1900 will bias against representation from that time.  Second, some of the temperature extremes note "also on earlier dates", which may also bias against earlier years.  (Or not - Maine's hottest temp is one of the ties, but the earlier date occurred during the same week and location.) 

 

There are only 10 records set prior to 1890 and only one of those was for temperature.  Then the 1890s, 1900s, and 1910s averaged 9 per decade.  The 1920s set only 3 extremes.  Then came the 1930s, with 23 record highs, 10 lows, 2 wettest, 17 driest, 52 extremes in all and top decade for all but wettest year.  The next six decades averaged 17 each, ranging from 12 to 26.  Extremes have been less common during the new millenium, with only 7 for 2000 on, though there may be updated records of which I'm not aware.  The two most recent are both cold extremes, 2009 in Maine and 2011 in OK.

 

Tam,

 Thanks for this data.

 

 To be fair (and assuming a near steady background avg. temp.), the # of records of any kind will be biased higher in earlier periods. Example: An all-time record low or high on any date at most any station in, say 1915, was much easier to attain than it would be in 2015 simply because the record is now 100 years longer.

Then 1884-1885 was one of the coldest winters on record. You could also to a lesser extent throw in 1881-1882 for an extreme warm winter...not quite as widespread as the warmth in 1877-1878, but still exceptional. Another extreme cold winter in 1887-1888.

 

 

 I meant to add some more things about ENSO. 1884-5 was at/near a low end weak Nino, which has a number of times been associated with the E US as a whole having very cold winters. 1887-8 had similar ENSO.

 

 The two warmest ATL winters of all time, 1879-80/1889-90, were during mod/very strong La Nina's. ATL's winters have been warmest on average during La Nina.

 

 My point is that regardless of AGW, the sun and other factors, the natural ENSO often has ruled and still rules the roost quite often when looking at individual winters. I assume you agree.

 

 I still wonder about the overall degree of extremes of US wx in the late 1800's. I don't know how they couldn't have been way up there.