GaWx

June of 2024 having this low of an amp isn’t all that rare. However, the last one was 13 years ago. The Junes since 1975 with MJO about this low of an amplitude or lower were these 8: 2011, 2005, 2000, 1995, 1990, 1989, 1980, and 1976. So, about 1/6 of the time (uncommon but not that rare). But the only other year I could find back to 1975 with this low an amp for Apr-June was 2000! So, that puts Apr-June of 2024 in quite rarified territory. I’m going to analyze these 8 years to see whether or not I think there may be significant implications. I’ll start off by throwing out 1976 as a potential good analog since that was La Niña to El Niño. Assuming we’re really going to have La Niña, the best analogs of these would be 2011, 2005 (huge ACE, too), 2000, and 1995 (huge ACE, too). That leaves the ENSO neutral years of 1990, 1989, and 1980. I don’t like 1990 since it just missed El Niño later in the year. Also, I don’t think 1989 is all that good because it followed La Niña. But 1980 looks good since it not only followed El Niño but its June AND May MJOs were both of low amp, it went to cold neutral, and ACE was pretty high. Of the 4 La Niña analogs, I’d say 2005 and 1995 are the best because they both followed El Nino and had high ACE. I’d put 2000 as pretty good despite being Nina to Nina only because its Apr-June was the only other with as low amp MJO as 2024. 2011 doesn’t look that good because it was also Niña to Niña and didn’t have the low amp Apr-June. So, I’m left with: -best June MJO analogs 2005/1995 (marked below w/**) -good June MJO analogs 2000/1980 (marked below w/*) More later on whether or not I think these June MJO analogs are of much forecasting significance….maybe I’ll decide no but I need more time to analyze other factors. —————————— Data: 2024: low amp Apr-Jun/Nino to Niña?/high ACE? 2011: low amp Jun/Nina to Nina **2005: low amp Jun/Nino to Niña/huge ACE** *2000: low amp Apr-Jun/Nina to Nina* **1995: low amp Jun/Nino to Niña/huge ACE** 1990: low amp Jun/neutral to +neutral 1989: low amp Jun/Niña to neutral *1980: low amp MJ/Nino to -neut/high ACE* 1976: low amp Apr & Jun/Niña to Nino

18Z ICON: very slightly SW of 12Z run on S-central TX coast

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that left the storm around 17Z reported that the central pressure had risen to near 974 mb, and also reported flight-level and SFMR winds supporting an intensity of 95 kt. Since that time, as happened yesterday afternoon, despite the ongoing shear the eye has become better defined in both satellite imagery and in radar data from Grand Cayman and Cuba. Given this increase in central core organization, the initial intensity will be held at 95 kt pending the arrival of the next aircraft near 00Z. Satellite imagery also shows that the outflow has become better defined in the northeastern semicircle. The initial motion is 285/17, although the last several satellite images suggest a westward wobble is in progress. There is again little change in either the track forecast philosophy or the track forecast from the previous advisory. A large ridge centered over the southeastern U.S. should cause Beryl to move westward or west-northwestward during the next day or so, with the model guidance tightly clustered about a landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula in 12-18 h and emerging into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico at around 30 h. After that, Beryl should turn northwest toward a developing break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the central United States. This general motion should continue until the cyclone makes landfall on the western Gulf coast between 72-96 h. There is still some spread in the track guidance regarding a landfall location, with the range of possibilities from northeastern Mexico to the middle Texas coast. Users are reminded that the average track forecast error at day 3 is about 100 miles and at day 4 is about 150 miles, and so it is still too early to pinpoint a specific region for the worst hazards. The new official forecast is a little north of the previous forecast through 24 h and similar to the previous forecast after that. It is unclear whether the current developments with the hurricane core and outflow are temporary or a sign that the westerly shear has somewhat abated. The intensity forecast follows the premise that the shear has not fully abated and that Beryl will weaken before landfall. However, even the intensity guidance that forecasts weakening keeps Beryl at hurricane strength at landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. Additional weakening should occur while the center is over land. Over the Gulf of Mexico, the guidance does not forecast a lot of strengthening, but conditions appear generally favorable and the intensity forecast continues to show Beryl at hurricane strength before landfall on the western Gulf coast. It should be noted that the dynamical models suggest that the best chance for re-intensification could be during the last 12-18 hr before the western Gulf landfall, with the storm slow to intensify before that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 19.5N 84.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 20.0N 86.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 20.7N 89.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0600Z 21.6N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 06/1800Z 22.6N 93.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 23.6N 95.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 24.5N 96.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 26.5N 98.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1800Z 29.0N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 ...CENTER OF BERYL HEADING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED ON THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 84.3W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 84.3 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward to west- northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, with the center expected to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico early Friday. Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night and move northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast before the center makes landfall, with additional weakening expected while Beryl crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Slow re-intensification is expected when Beryl moves over the Gulf of Mexico.

I disagree. Wxman57, a pro met, is about as knowledgeable as the pro mets and more knowledgeable amateurs here. Plus he has 4 decades of experience largely with tropical meteorology. Thus, it isn’t at all BS. @Ed, snow and hurricane fanand anyone else should be welcomed to post 57’s thoughts as well as the thoughts of other pro mets that don’t post here.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Central Caribbean Sea (AL96): A fast-moving tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph during the next several days. The system is forecast to cross the Yucatan Peninsula late this weekend and enter the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Regardless of development, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Greater Antilles over the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. Forecaster Reinhart

BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 24A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 200 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 ...CENTER OF BERYL MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED ON THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 83.4W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

12Z Euro: slightly N of its 0Z run and near yesterday’s 12Z run; it is ~90 miles S of TX border, which is where 12Z UKMET is and is between 12Z GFS and 12Z CMC So, from N to S for 12Z global runs: ICON (Matagorda) GFS (60 miles S of TX border) Euro/UKMET (90 miles S of TX border) CMC (125 miles S of TX border)

The 12Z UKMET has Beryl already at 85.4W when at 19.0N at 8PM EDT/7PM CDT today. But regarding the 11AM EDT/10AM CDT actual position, the NHC was already up to 19.0N with her only to 82.6W. That means she was a whopping ~185 miles E of the 12Z UKMET 7PM CDT position. That implies to me that the UKMET is likely going to verify too far S when it reaches the W GOM.

12Z global model runs vs earlier runs: -ICON: Matagorda, TX (furthest SW yet) after many runs at Galveston -GFS: ~60 miles S of TX border (slightly S of last 3 runs) -CMC: ~125 miles S of TX border (slightly further S of last 2 runs) -UKMET: ~90 miles S of TX border, which may be slightly further N than last run and is ~55 miles N of yesterday’s 12Z run -Euro: out next hour

NHC 11AM forecast yesterday: 36H 05/0000Z 19.0N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH NHC 5AM forecast today: 12H 04/1800Z 19.0N 83.6W 95 KT 110 MPH NHC 11AM actual location: INIT 04/1500Z 19.0N 82.6W 100 KT 115 MPH By comparing these 3, one can see the trend that she gets as far N as 19.0N at a further E longitude: note that current location of 19.0N is with longitude of 82.6W vs 85.5W on yesterday’s 11AM forecast and 83.6W on today’s 5AM forecast. The implications are that this may mean a further N landfall in the W Gulf than earlier forecasted.

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Beryl continues to weaken due to the effects of westerly shear. Radar data from the Cayman Islands shows that the eyewall is open to the south and that there is very little precipitation occurring in the southwestern semicircle. This matches the asymmetric cloud pattern seen in satellite imagery. Data from the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters support surface winds of 90-100 kt, and that the central pressure has risen to near 971 mb. Based on this, the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 100 kt. The initial wind radii have be modified downward based on the aircraft data. The initial motion is 285/16. There is little change in either the track forecast philosophy or the track forecast from the previous advisory. A large ridge centered over the southeastern U.S. should cause Beryl to move westward or west-northwestward during the next day or two, with the model guidance tightly clustered about a landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula just before 24 h and emerging into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico just after 36 h. After that, Beryl should turn northwest toward a developing break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the central United States. This general motion should continue until the cyclone makes landfall on the western Gulf coast near 96 h. While the guidance has come into better agreement, there is a spread in the guidance landfall points from northeastern Mexico to the middle Texas coast, and users are reminded that the average error at day 4 is about 150 miles. Thus, it is still too early to pinpoint a specific region for the worst hazards. The new official forecast is similar to, but a touch slower than, the previous forecast and it lies close to the consensus models. Water vapor imagery continues to show a upper-level trough moving west-southwestward over the southern Gulf of Mexico, with westerly flow on the south side of this system helping to impart moderate-to-strong shear over Beryl. While the shear could decrease some during the next 24 h, it is unlikely to decrease enough to stop Beryl from steadily weakening until landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. This part of the new intensity forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance. Beryl should weaken more after landfall. There is uncertainty in how much shear the cyclone may encounter over the Gulf of Mexico, but the guidance shows slow intensification during that time. This is reflected in the new intensity forecast that brings the system back to hurricane strength right at landfall on the western Gulf coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 19.0N 82.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 19.5N 85.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 20.1N 87.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0000Z 20.9N 90.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/1200Z 22.0N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 07/0000Z 23.0N 94.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 23.9N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 25.5N 97.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1200Z 28.0N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 ...CENTER OF BERYL MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED ON THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 82.6W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES

Beryl has finally fallen below cat 4 as it is now a strong cat 3. It appears that SW Jamaica may have been the hardest hit of that island based on that tweet I just posted and the radar images showing the very strong N eyewall over that area. Get ready Caymans, especially Grand Cayman! Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 200 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 80.1W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

“From all the reports I have received we have taken a most devastating blow in St Elizabeth from Hurricane Beryl. Significant numbers of roofs being lost, houses destroyed, trees uprooted, light poles downed, almost all roads are impassable. Going to be an extremely long night.” https://x.com/floydgreenja/status/1808696512471245249

For the 3rd run of the last 5 and the 2nd in a row, the ICON has a major H hit on Galveston.

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 The core of Beryl has now passed through Jamaica and is approaching the Cayman Islands. Satellite images indicate that the eye has become cloud filled, and reports from both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the eyewall is open on the southwest side. Despite the degraded structure, a blend of the NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance data indicates that Beryl is still an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane with an initial intensity of 115 kt. The crews on board also reported that there was significant turbulence in the northern eyewall. NOAA's P-3 Tail Doppler Radar data does suggest that there is some vertical tilt to the vortex, likely due to moderate westerly vertical wind shear. The center of Beryl is a little to the north of the previous track, and the latest initial motion estimate is 295/16 kt. A ridge centered over the southeastern U.S. should cause Beryl to turn more westward during the next couple of days, taking the core of the major hurricane just south of the Cayman Islands overnight and across the Yucatan Peninsula late Thursday night and Friday. The ridge is expected to weaken late Friday, which should cause Beryl to slow down and gain more latitude this weekend as it moves toward a trough over the south-central U.S. The models are tightly clustered through the Yucatan landfall, and given the pronounced steering currents through that time, the NHC track forecast is of high confidence. However, the spread in the models increase by the time Beryl nears eastern Mexico and southern Texas and accordingly, confidence in the details of the track forecast are low at long range. The NHC track forecast is a tad to the north of the previous one and very near the various consensus aids. Beryl is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of westerly shear, and the models suggest that the shear will either hold steady or increase a little during the next couple of days. These less favorable winds aloft combined with some intrusions of dry air should cause weakening, but Beryl is still expected to be a powerful hurricane by the time it reaches the Yucatan. The interaction with the landmass of the Yucatan should cause rapid weakening, but gradual re-intensification is expected when Beryl moves over the western Gulf of Mexico. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and near the high end of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 18.0N 79.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 18.5N 81.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 19.1N 85.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 19.8N 87.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 20.7N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 06/1200Z 21.7N 92.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 07/0000Z 22.8N 94.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 24.6N 97.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 26.7N 98.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen

Well, the Energizer Bunny is still a cat 4 at 11PM! Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 ...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BERYL PULLING AWAY FROM JAMAICA... ...EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 79.2W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

Well, Jebman, I agree it’s good to see any weakening, especially while still in the vicinity of Jamaica and with the Caymans not too far away. But unfortunately 130 is still very powerful. You’re right, it is the Energizer Bunny of hurricanes! Who would have thought that on July 3 we’d have a hurricane that “weakened” to 130 mph? It’s crazy!

I know it’s almost 10PM, but still wanted to get this in the thread: Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 800 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 ...EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL MOVING NEAR SOUTHWESTERN JAMAICA... ...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 78.3W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

Further to the above for AMJ: -ONI +0.39 -RONI -0.22 -So, AMJ’s ONI-RONI=+0.61 -MAM’s ONI-RONI was +0.64 -FMA’s ONI-RONI was +0.66 (record high) -JFM’s ONI-RONI was +0.63

18Z ICON: back up to ~Galveston like the 0Z had vs 12Z’s ~75 miles SW of Galveston

From NHC at 5 PM: ...EYEWALL OF BERYL BRUSHING THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS OCCURRING... ...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 77.6W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). Kingston, Jamaica, recently reported sustained winds of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 81 mph (130 km/h).

The Kingston webcams show that rain and wind have increased substantially the last hour for quite the stormy afternoon. Keep in mind that Kingston is 75 miles NE of the center, nowhere near the core: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=h0E93nmFO1A

Yes, it appears that way. Look for the worst from this storm to move in shortly and last for several hours.