GaWx

Most recent progs I've seen are favoring something in-between E and W based with 3 and 3.4 about the same and warmer than 1+2 and 4. ....so neither.

The bolded is worth noting as another big difference from Harvey, which was blocked by highs both to the N and to the W. This resulted in incredibly slow movement once onshore, an avg of a mere ~2 mph over a 48 hour period resulting in historically high rainfall!

From Eric Webb at 1:42 PM EDT in response to Ryan Maue showing a sat. image of Harvey 48 hours prior to landfall: While I do agree that #Beryl may rapidly intensify into landfall in Texas later tomorrow, we need to pump the brakes on the “this could be Harvey all over again” paradigm. There are some truly gigantic differences between this and Harvey, in that during Harvey you started from basically nothing, whereas here w/ #Beryl you have a broad center and wind maxima that needs time to consolidate before really getting going again. Also, not to mention #Beryl’s environment isn’t exactly pristine, with a lot of mid-level dry air lurking to the south and moderate-strong southerly wind shear helping to force this dry air into the core. While there are a few exceptions, it’s **much, much** easier for a TC to intensify more quickly when you start with next to nothing like Harvey and just wrap up a tight initial inner core. Contrast that with #Beryl where you’re try to tighten up something that’s initially broad, with a lot more inertial stability to overcome. Historically speaking, most tightly wound cat 4-5s in the Atlantic that unwind then try to reintensify later on usually do so at a much slower pace, even in a great environments. This is likely because the broad pressure field left by the older, relic inner core pumps the breaks truly rapid intensification when it comes to surface winds. In these kinds of storms, you tend to get a lot more deepening, pressure falls, & a larger wind field at the expense of the peak winds having a harder time keeping up. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens here w/ #Beryl https://x.com/webberweather/status/1809643994177237427?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1809643994177237427|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=

Dr. Levi Cowan’s latest: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4FpPjzTEt_w&embeds

Yes, it is ~-0.1. La Nada ONI. But RONI would likely be ~-0.6.

Not as strong on this run. 982 vs ~970.

Chuck, Is that due to the strong -PDO that has dominated since the 2nd half of 1998? https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

- The July Euro is forecasting ONI of ~-0.1C in ASO, which is a bit warmer than the June run. - The Euro runs over the last 15++ years have averaged too warm. My educated guess is that July has averaged 0.2 too warm for ASO. - Thus the implied bias corrected (bc) July Euro ASO ONI prog is for -0.3. - The latest ONI-RONI is +0.61 and has only slowly been falling from earlier record peak of +0.66. So, it’s realistic to assume an ASO ONI-RONI still up at ~+0.5. This means the bc July Euro prog for ASO RONI is ~-0.8. - Regarding implications for H season, I posted in late May that on avg the worst seasons for US H landfalls, especially NE Gulf to Carolinas, have been when ASO RONI was weak La Niña as opposed to either mod/strong Niña or cold neutral. This is also the case for the area from the Bahamas to Lesser Antilles. This was backed by maps that I saw elsewhere. - Thus, the bc July Euro prog for ASO RONI of ~-0.8 would be ~the worst ASO RONI from the perspective of one not wanting a bad season. That doesn’t mean it will be bad though as not all with a weak Niña have been. These are just averages. In May when I first studied this, it was looking like ASO RONI would be below -1.0, which would have had not as bad implications for the SE US to E Caribbean.

Indeed, Isidore had only 48 hours over water vs Beryl’s projected ~72 hours. Oh well, it wasn’t a big hope to begin with, especially due to Beryl’s much smaller size.

Do you think they can be "saved" by an Isidore-like very slow restrengthening as per my post above? I distinctly recall models/forecasters were almost unanimous in expecting a reintensifcation of Isidore back into a MH after moving off of the Yucatan due to the great organization, but the convection was very slow to reform.

The small hope I have is that Beryl struggles to re-intensify off of the Yucatan like the struggle of Isidore of 2002. Any thoughts? I remember this well. It was very large , which probably was a negating factor. Beryl is much smaller. Thus, my hope for a slow re-intensification like for Isidore is limited: "The inner core of convection collapsed while over southeast Mexico, and upon moving northward and reaching the Gulf of Mexico again, it was a large but weak tropical storm. Conditions favored significant strengthening, but Isidore did not redevelop central convection until reaching the northern Gulf of Mexico. The strengthening system hit Grand Isle, Louisiana on September 26 with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (105 km/h)" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Isidore To see how large Isidore was over the Yucatan, look at figure 4.a in here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL102002_Isidore.pdf

- So, verbatim, the July Euro is forecasting ONI of ~-0.1C in OND and NDJ. That compares to -0.3 in June and -0.5 in May. - The June runs over the last 15++ years have averaged a whopping 0.5 too warm for OND ONI. I haven’t analyzed July yet. But logically it should have a slightly smaller bias. Something like +0.3 to +0.4. - Thus implied bias corrected (bc) July Euro ONI prog is for -0.4 to -0.5 in OND/NDJ. - The latest ONI-RONI is +0.61 and has only slowly been falling from earlier record peak of +0.66. So, it’s realistic to assume an OND/NDJ ONI-RONI still up at ~+0.50. - Thus, the implied bc July Euro RONI prog is for -0.9 to -1.0 in OND/NDJ. The Euro and other progs look closer to a “basin-wide” than either E based or Modoki imo. - That -0.9 to -1.0 would be a much weaker La Niña than what many of us were earlier expecting as drop in Nino anoms was stalled for >month. However per @snowman19, Chris, Ray, and others, that might not make much of difference as far as winter is concerned due to the overwhelming W PAC warmth. - Regarding implications for H season, I posted in late May that on avg the worst seasons for US H landfalls, especially NE Gulf to Carolinas, have been when ASO RONI was weak La Niña as opposed to either mod/strong Niña or cold neutral. This is also the case for the area from the Bahamas to Lesser Antilles. This was backed by detailed maps I saw elsewhere. - The bc July Euro suggests an ASO RONI of ~-0.8, which would be ~the worst ASO RONI if one doesn’t want a bad season. That doesn’t mean it will be bad though as not all with a weak Niña have been. These are just averages. - Perhaps the long awaited resumed cooling is commencing. CDAS and CRW anomalies have dropped 0.1 to 0.2 in recent days. Also, the SOI has finally increased substantially the last 11 days (as expected per models). New easterly wind bursts have been mentioned by @snowman19and others. So, we’ll see.

1PM CDT: Beryl as expected downgraded to a TS/986 mb: NHC 1:00 PM CDT Fri Jul 5Location: 20.8°N 88.8°WMoving: WNW at 15 mphMin pressure: 986 mbMax sustained: 70 mph

The 12Z Euro is significantly NE of the 6Z’s CC landfall with it going ashore about dead-on mid TX coast. Also, it is much stronger at 971 mb vs 989 mb at 6Z! Those old ICON and JMA runs into Galveston are looking more realistic. There were a good number of runs of these two models in that vicinity. Example: ICON 12Z 6/30 run: (the 12Z 6/30 JMA was actually similar!) 12Z 6/30 JMA:

I can see it easily being significantly colder than last winter’s very mild winter in the NE, especially NNE. That shouldn’t be difficult to do. But these maps, everything else I’ve seen, and most indicators suggest the SE US will be much warmer than last winter’s only slightly AN as well as much drier.

Chris, after looking at this Euro map more closely, I see that >95% of the N Hem has H5 forecasted for NDJ to be >1 DM above the 1993-2016 based normal with 0% >1 DM BN. I usually think of 1 DM as the equivalent of ~1 F. So, this is suggesting 95% of the NH is forecasted to be 1+ F AN in NDJ. I guess that’s realistic considering how rapidly the globe has been warming since 1993 thus suggesting true up to date normals are probably a whopping ~2F warmer than 1993-2016. Does that seem right? Do you think it has warmed that rapidly?

12Z GEFS: increase in strong members to the NE (I see at least 5 members there between strong cat 1 and cat 2):

12Z UKMET landfall is all of the way up to Corpus Christi. The 0Z run was in NE MX. But this isn’t at all surprising considering clearcut N trends. 12Z CMC at MX/TX border, which is ~100 miles N of 0Z run. It is still the furthest S landfall by far compared to the ICON (Galveston), GFS (CC), and UKMET (CC).

Those are ugly maps if you don’t want a mild E US winter. I’d already seen the ugly CANSIPS maps. Would you please post the new Euro 2m temp anomaly maps? TIA

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 The center of Beryl made landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico just northeast of Tulum at about 11Z. The landfall intensity is somewhat uncertain, but surface observations suggest the central pressure rose into the 977-980 mb range before landfall. The cyclone is now weakening as it moves farther inland, and the initial intensity is reduced to 75 kt. The initial motion is now 290/14 kt. For the next 24 h or so, Beryl should be steered generally west-northwestward by the western portion of the subtropical ridge over the southeastern United States. After that, a turn toward the northwest is likely as the storm moves towards a break in the ridge caused by a combination of a trough in the mid-latitude westerlies over the central United States and an upper-level trough moving westward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This motion should bring the center near the western Gulf coast in about 72 h. Subsequently, a northward motion through the break appears likely. While the track guidance has come into better agreement, there is still uncertainty based on the possible strength and vertical depth of Beryl. A stronger and vertically deeper cyclone would feel more steering from upper-level southwesterly flow caused by the Gulf trough, and thus would have a more northward motion, while a weaker system would probably continue more northwestward. Overall the guidance favors the more northward motion and has shifted a little to the right, and the new official forecast also is nudged a little to the right of the previous forecast. Additional adjustments of the forecast track could be necessary later today. Beryl should continue to weaken while over land, and it is expected to emerge over the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm. After that, it could take 12-24 h for the cyclone's structure to recover over the Gulf of Mexico before re-intensification can begin in earnest. Based on this and the overall trends of the intensity guidance, the new forecast calls for gradual strengthening to start after 24 h and continue until landfall. One important note is that the GFS and ECMWF suggest that ongoing westerly shear could decrease after 48-60 h, accompanied by an increase in upper-level divergence. Should this occur, Beryl could strengthen more than currently forecast, especially if the center stays over water longer than forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 20.7N 88.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 12H 06/0000Z 21.4N 90.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 06/1200Z 22.5N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 23.6N 94.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 24.6N 95.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 25.6N 96.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 26.8N 97.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR COAST 96H 09/1200Z 29.0N 98.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/1200Z 31.0N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 ...BERYL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 88.3W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

Indeed it does. So, I’ll now look at which of those 8 low amp June MJO years remained weak through July: -2011: no but was already a poor analog -2005: remained fairly weak in Jul (and even into Aug) keeping this a top June/July low amp MJO analog -2000: not at all and thus knocking it out as a good analog -1995: not at all and thus knocking it out as a top analog or even a good analog -1990: no but was already a poor analog -1989: no but was already a poor analog -1980: yes, very weak in July; was already a good low amp June MJO analog but this raises it further to a top weak MJO June/July analog -1976: yes, very weak in July but Niña to Nino already made this a poor analog So, by incorporating a weak July MJO, I’m left with only 2005 and 1980 as noteworthy analogs. They both followed El Niño, headed to either Niña or cold neutral, and had high ACE. But as Chris said, these are only based on RMM plots and are downplaying the VP anomalies, which show the main forcing to be the equivalent of robust forcing in 3-6 due to the very warm WPAC water. Related to this, the PDO in both 2005 and 1980 was so much higher than 2024, which is probably enough to disqualify 2005 and 1980 as useful analogs with the current strong -PDO not expected to go away anytime soon. Any other opinions?

It’s unanimous for the main 0Z globals. The 0Z Euro is also further N than the 12Z (by 125+ miles) and is even ~100 miles N of the 18Z! Though pretty strong, it isn’t as strong as the 18Z. Landfall is halfway between Brownsville and Corpus Christi! So, 3 of these 5 0Z globals are in TX. Anyone following the 0Z hurricane models?

0Z globals’ W Gulf landfalls starting with northernmost: further N than 12Z runs: -ICON: mid-TX coast ~25 miles N of 12Z run -GFS: Corpus Christi, which is ~150 miles N of 12Z’s NE MX landfall -UKMET: ~40 miles N of 12Z run, which places it ~40-50 miles S of the TX border -CMC: ~25 miles N of 12Z run or ~100 miles S of the TX border -Euro not out yet

Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 ...MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL IS APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 85.5W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES ———————— Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 The weakening trend of Beryl has reversed this evening. Satellite images show that the eye has occasionally been evident and the eyewall is about two-thirds closed based on Cancun radar images and reports from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Data from the reconnaissance mission indicated that Beryl has strengthened back to a dangerous category 3 hurricane with maximum winds of about 100 kt. The minimum pressure has fallen about 10 mb from this afternoon to 964 mb. The aircraft also indicated that Beryl remains compact, and it is actually a little smaller than previously estimated. The hurricane has turned westward and slowed down slightly on the south side of a ridge centered over the southeastern U.S., with the latest initial motion estimated to be 275/14 kt. Beryl is expected to maintain that general motion during the next 12 hours, which should cause it to make landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula very near Tulum early Friday morning. Most of the models show the center remaining over land for about 18 hours, and then emerging over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night. Around that time, Beryl is expected to turn to the northwest and slow down some more as it moves along the western periphery of the weakening ridge and toward a trough over the south-central U.S. Although the models are in fair agreement, there is still some spread in exactly how sharp the system turns northwestward, and to a large degree the structure and intensity of Beryl will be a notable factor on its track over the Gulf. The new NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one, following the trend in the latest models. It now seems likely that Beryl will maintain its strength until it reaches the coast. Once the core moves inland, rapid weakening is expected, and Beryl is forecast to fall below hurricane strength by the time it exits the Yucatan. Assuming the system is able to maintain some elements of an inner core, gradual re-intensification seems likely before it makes its final landfall in northeastern Mexico or southern Texas. The NHC intensity forecast again lies near the high end of the models and continues to show Beryl becoming a hurricane again over the western Gulf. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 19.6N 85.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 20.0N 87.5W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/0000Z 20.9N 89.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/1200Z 21.9N 92.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 07/0000Z 22.9N 94.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 23.8N 95.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 24.7N 96.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 26.8N 98.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/0000Z 28.9N 99.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi