GaWx

With a RH of a mere 3%/dewpoint of 16, the LV heat index is only ~106. Here in SE GA, whereas the hottest it has been so far this summer has been “only” in the upper 90s, the highest HI has been ~110!

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Satellite images indicate that Beryl continues to gradual organize with more banding features near the center, expanding outflow and strong bursts of convection rotating around the eyewall. However, dry air is still present within the inner core, keeping the intensification slow at this time, with only a broken banded eyewall structure. While the central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has fallen to 988 mb, there hasn't been much change in the winds reported, so the intensity remains 55 kt. The intensity forecast is tricky because the environment is becoming quite favorable for significant intensification as Beryl should be moving over sea-surface temperatures near 87F tonight and light shear, plus even an enhancement of jet dynamics north of the storm. All of the model guidance respond to these conditions by showing a large increase in deep convection near the center and higher winds. However, some less predictable factors could prevent a big increase in winds, including dry air in the inner core, a somewhat large radius of maximum winds, and slightly faster landfall timing. Given that the regional hurricane models still show significant deepening, the official forecast continues to call for near rapid intensification through landfall. Beryl has turned north-northwest at about 10 kt. The storm should turn northward overnight before making landfall along the middle Texas coast early on Monday before dawn. The new forecast is very close to the previous one through landfall. After Beryl moves inland, the latest guidance turns the system northeastward late tomorrow and it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. The long-term track is a bit faster and east of the last one, consistent with a blend of the ECMWF and GFS models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 26.8N 95.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 28.3N 95.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 30.4N 95.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0600Z 32.6N 94.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/1800Z 34.9N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 10/0600Z 37.2N 89.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 10/1800Z 39.7N 86.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 11/1800Z 43.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 ...BERYL FORECAST TO BRING DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS TO TEXAS OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.8N 95.5W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

Recon just placed the center around 26.2N, 95.4W but didn’t get a pressure reading. Thus, we’ll have to wait to see what the dropsonde shows. ——————- Edit: From NHC: ...BERYL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 95.3W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

Levi Cowan’s latest (7 min video), which was recorded within the last hour: https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1809982172788306162?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Beryl has become better organized this morning. Satellite images show deep convection becoming more symmetric around the center, and Brownsville radar has been showing an eyewall forming, although still open on the northwest side. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported maximum flight-level winds of 62 kt with the central pressure falling to 992 mb, so the initial wind speed is raised to 55 kt. Further intensification is likely as Beryl moves over very warm waters within light shear conditions. Rapid intensification is a distinct possibility if the core can become isolated from the dry air that has been inhibiting intensification during the last day or so. While there are no changes to the intensity forecast based on the latest guidance, we are expecting Beryl to be intensifying up until landfall early Monday, and people should be preparing for the possibility of a category 2 hurricane landfall. Beryl continues to move northwestward at 9 kt. The storm should turn north-northwest this afternoon and make landfall along the middle Texas coast early on Monday. The new forecast is very close to the previous one, just a shade to the east. After Beryl moves inland, the latest guidance still shows the system accelerating farther northeastward and become a post-tropical cyclone. This should bring the threat of flash flooding well into Missouri. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 25.9N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 27.1N 95.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 29.2N 96.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0000Z 31.4N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/1200Z 33.6N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 10/0000Z 36.2N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 10/1200Z 38.6N 89.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 11/1200Z 42.8N 83.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 12/1200Z 46.0N 79.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Blake *Edit: note the forecasted 85 mph as of 7AM CDT is when it has already been inland a few hours thus implying higher forecasted landfalling max winds.

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 ...BERYL BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 95.1W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has issued for the coast of Texas from High Island to Sabine Pass. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, Texas. The Tropical Storm Watch for the Texas coast east of High Island to Sabine Pass has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Hurricane Watch for the Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande has been discontinued.

The 6Z HWRF has 969 mb landfall ~3AM CDT at Matagorda Bay. Due to the broad center, the highest winds (~100 mph from SE) are located a pretty significant distance (~25 miles) NE of the center between the towns of Matagorda and Sargent. Highest winds to the left of the center are ~75 mph from the NW.

Unfortunately but not surprisingly, DMAX appears to have been a factor leading to strengthening with increased convection collocated with the center. Recon confirms an SLP drop to ~990 mb, a rather significant drop overnight. We’ll see whether or not this increased convection holds as we go toward DMIN late today. With dry air/shear decreasing further and SSTs increasing, I expect it will. With ~18 more hours over water projected til the ~3AM landfall, SSTs increasing to a whopping ~88 F, and another DMAX then being approached, a strengthening cat 2 at landfall is quite possible with an outside chance for just reaching cat 3.

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Beryl has not changed much over the past few hours. Satellite images still show that the storm has a compact central dense overcast pattern, and radar and dropsonde data from the NOAA aircraft indicate that the circulation remains tilted to the northwest with height. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have reported a slight drop in minimum pressure to 993 mb, but the flight-level wind data suggest that the initial intensity is still around 50 kt. The storm is moving northwestward at 11 kt on the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. A turn to the north-northwest with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected as the system moves toward a trough over the south-central U.S., taking the core of Beryl to the middle Texas coast early Monday morning. The shifts in the models have been decreasing, and the new NHC track forecast is just a touch to the right of the previous one through landfall. After landfall, a faster motion to the north and northeast is predicted. Beryl is currently in an environment of about 10 to 15 kt of southerly vertical wind shear and surrounded by dry air, especially on the south side of the circulation. However, the storm is expected to move into an area of decreasing wind shear, and the global models show the moisture increasing near the core. In fact, the SHIPS model shows the shear decreasing to very low levels (less than 5 kt) just prior to Beryl reaching the coast. These conditions combined with a diffluent upper-level wind pattern should support notable strengthening just prior to landfall. In fact, the hurricane regional models HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, and HMON all show only gradual strengthening during the next 12-24 hours, followed by significant intensification just hours before Beryl makes landfall. Based on the guidance and large-scale factors, there is a chance of rapid intensification if Beryl becomes better vertically aligned, and it is possible that it strengthens more between the 24- and 36-h predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 24.7N 94.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 25.7N 95.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 27.1N 96.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 28.8N 96.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0000Z 30.7N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/1200Z 32.6N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/0000Z 34.5N 93.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 11/0000Z 37.8N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 12/0000Z 41.3N 84.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 ...BERYL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AGAIN BEFORE LANDFALL... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 94.0W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

The Gulf SST map below suggests a rise of SSTs from ~85F where it is now to an area of 86-88F to be crossed before landfall:

Why are you leaving out region 4 if you’re including 3? Region 4 was as I showed actually barely stronger than 3 (per weeklies or monthlies for DJF). If you had instead said it was centered in regions 3, 3.4, AND 4 rather than just 3 and 3.4, I’d agree.

Getting closer to being stacked now from what I just read. I assume convection has as Ed suggests diminished partly due to the recent DMIN (late daytime). Let’s see whether or not it refires closer to DMAX (late night).

What are you looking at that suggests 10-11 absolutely started out E based? Here’s the data for Dec: Weeklies (OISST) 1+2: -1.2 3: -1.3 3.4: -1.2 4: -1.2 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for Monthlies (ERSST) 1+2: -0.9 3: -1.5 3.4: -1.6 4: -1.5 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

Ray, Per OISST based weeklies, I got this for avg for DJF: 1+2: -0.7 3: -1.1 3.4: -1.4 4: -1.2 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for Per ERSST based monthlies, I got this: 1+2: -0.5 3: -1.2 3.4: -1.4 4: -1.3 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii So, both have 1+2 the weakest by far, 3.4 barely the strongest, 4 barely weaker than 3.4, and 3 barely weaker than 4. You’d have to agree based on these two sets of SSTa data that it clearly was not E based. Then the Q is whether it is closer to balanced, basin-wide, or Modoki. This suggests to me it isn’t really basin-wide or balanced because 1+2 is way weaker than the other regions. I suppose I can go with it not being a pure Modoki because 3.4 and 4 are only a little stronger than 3 rather than a lot stronger. Who knows exactly what it should be called? But I think an argument could be made this is closer to Modoki than any other classification. What is the exact definition of Modoki?

Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 33A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 700 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 ...BERYL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AGAIN BEFORE LANDFALL... ...STORM SURGE WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 93.7W ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning from San Luis Pass to High Island, including Galveston Bay.

Until you mentioned this, I hadn’t checked closely. But sure enough I just did the calcs and the weekly data, indeed, suggests 10-11 wasn’t E based and was instead Modoki per this. Thus, the guidance for this year with its in-between E and W (warmest in 3/3.4 vs a bit cooler 1+2 and significantly cooler 4) is for a more E based than the Modoki of 2010-11 (see below) and way weaker per RONI. I just calced 95-6 and it was weak/flat across the regions making it a basin-wide weak. So, I’d call the guidance for this year (although not flat like 95-6) to be neither more nor less E based and about the same strength per RONI. So, 95-9 is kind of comparable to the progs for 24-5. 10-11 avg of weeklies DJF: 1+2: -0.7 3: -1.1 3.4: -1.4 4: -1.2 RONI was even stronger. Thus I’d call 10-11 Modoki RONI based strong. 95-96 avg of weeklies DJF: 1+2: -0.7 3: -0.8 3.4: -0.8 4: -0.6 Thus I’d call 95-6 balanced/basin-wide weak. 17-18 avg of weeklies DJF: 1+2: -0.8 3: -1.0 3.4: -0.8 4: -0.3 Thus I’d call 17-8 slightly E based/RONI based moderate. So, how do 24-5 progs look compared to these 3? - Strength (RONI) similar to 95-6, a bit weaker than 17-18, and much weaker than 10-11. . - Pretty similar balance to 95-6, a little more W based than 17-8, and more E based than 2010-1. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for **Edit: Hasn’t it been said that Modoki Nina’s are the warmest on avg? Maybe they are on avg but 2010-1 itself doesn’t fit that idea.

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Beryl's convective organization has increased since the last advisory, with a ragged band forming in the western semicircle. However, this band is best organized around what appears to be a mid-level center to the north or northeast of the low-level center. Earlier aircraft data indicated that the maximum winds were near 50 kt and the central pressure was in the 997-999 mb range, and since that time various objective intensity estimates have shown little change. Thus, the initial intensity remains 50 kt. The next aircraft missions into the cyclone should arrive around 2300-0000Z. Beryl is still being affected by shear and dry air entrainment, which helped produce a large arc cloud that was visible for most of the day to the south and southwest of the convection. The initial motion is now 310/11 kt. Water vapor imagery continues to show a developing mid-latitude trough over the central United States that is opening a break in the subtropical ridge over Texas. Beryl should move northwestward for the next 24 h or so, then gradually turn north and move into the break. This motion should lead to the cyclone making landfall on the Texas coast between 36-48 h. Recurvature to the northeast is subsequently expected after 60-72 h. There has been a little bit of a northward shift in the guidance and track, due mainly to a more northward initial position. While this has produced only a small change in the forecast landfall location, the landfall time is now a few hours earlier than in the previous advisory. It should be noted that some erratic motion could occur tonight due to possible center reformations. While Beryl remains in an area of southerly vertical shear and mid- to upper-level dry air, the convection has been persistent during the past several hours. The shear is forecast to decrease by Sunday morning, which should allow Beryl to re-intensity as shown by all of the guidance. The intensity forecast calls for Beryl to regain hurricane status Sunday or Sunday night, and to reach an intensity of around 75-kt near the time of the Texas landfall. This intensity is based on the regional hurricane models, which have landfall intensities ranging from 65-85 kt. After landfall, Beryl is expected to weaken, with the system forecast to decay to a remnant low pressure area by 96 h. It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 36 hours is about 50-60 miles and the average intensity error is close to one category. Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties when using the forecast information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 23.9N 93.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 24.8N 94.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 26.0N 95.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 27.5N 96.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 29.1N 96.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/0600Z 30.8N 96.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/1800Z 32.4N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 10/1800Z 35.0N 91.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 11/1800Z 38.0N 88.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF TEXAS... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.9N 93.0W ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast from Baffin Bay northward to Sargent. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast north of Sargent to High Island. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore northward to San Luis Pass, including Corpus Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued along the Texas coast east of High Island to Sabine Pass.

RDU is sticking out like a hot thumb again today with 102 at 4PM. This tweet from Brad Panovich says there’s a warm bias though much more during daytime than night: https://x.com/wxbrad/status/1809595420802261228?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet The problem appears to not be with the sensor for that would mean just as much too hot at night, too, along with when it is cloudy, windy, etc. Rather, it appears per Brad to be due to the surroundings: “This is not an ideal siting situation for KRDU. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's way too much gravel and concrete and a building too close to the ASOS. Compare KRDU versus KCLT ASOS, which is surrounded by vegetation and no buildings” From here: https://x.com/wxbrad/status/1809626846633320508?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1809626846633320508|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url= @eyewall

I’m closer to Ed on this. How Beryl handled shear a few days ago shouldn’t be all that relevant to how well she is handling shear now due to a much different storm structure vs then….imho.

Especially because the current structure is nowhere close to its structure of a few days ago when it rapidly deepened. For all practical purposes, it is like a different storm. Plus the atmosphere is far different though SSTs are similarly very warm.

Chuck, What's the deal with the lingering warmth in the top 75-100m right above the strong Nina in 100-250m corridor? I can't ever recall seeing something similar. Doesn't that cold water need to reach the sfc for it to impart a Nina-like reaction? It almost looks like a battle of the very warm oceans vs the forming Nina.

Also, RONI of 19-20 peaked at a mere +0.24 vs +0.55 ONI. So, not all that close to weak Nino on that basis.