Buddy1987

I still don’t believe IMO that a 1034 HP parked up top will not at least deliver ice to the northern forum here. Low pressure is not that far off to where it could easily trend toward a better solution but overall not a good run agreed there

Boy gfs looking like it’s going to be even more amped at 5h with s/w digging deep into the 4 corners.

GFS itself has the indicator with the isobars backing far down into NC as well. Map verbatim doesn’t look as bad as Nam but you take the qpf output from gfs and combine with nams superiority in low level thermals and you already know you have a big problem setting up for Sat

TW this is what I was kind of alluding to the late last night early this morning in one of my posts wrt the overall setup. The winter storm watch that was issued for up here I feel like since we’re starting warm it’s going to be very hard to be able to accrue anything ice wise. Once the wedge actually does establish itself tho I view that as a very concerning piece come Saturday as it will be very hard to dislodge it, more so with it backing and building south/southwest into the day. This could get very real for northern NC/southern VA

RGEM looks Uber cold as well for a good portion of the triangle between 60-66. Nicely well defined wedge. At 72 the icing output is much lighter up this way but more serious down toward Greensboro and areas directly surrounding.

Yea the wedge at a minimum is much more pronounced into western NC as well for sure

Man you go out toward Route 8 into Floyd you’ll probably get more than you ask for LOL

12k Nam this way is pretty much a black out down here on Sat. 1.20” of freezing rain. Even half would be incredible for it to actually come to fruition.

I’ve lived in ROA since 2011. Is there anything that you can recall or think of that even came close to something like this throughout the decades or years? This is about 60 hours away give or take. We’re not talking 5-6 days out. Pretty crazy to think at an average of 1.30” half would still be .65”.

You and I are pretty much obliterated off the map Saturday according to 12k Nam. Good lord! Even half of those amounts verify it is beyond significant.

@BullCityWx I agree with you brother. Anyone writing this off at this juncture is pure lunacy. The way the models have performed past 72-96 hours and beyond this year would leave any reasonable prudent person to realize giving definitives is a no go right now.

Well not gonna lie was pretty surprised to wake up to a winter storm watch here for all of southern VA. I just feel like these types of events for one are super hard to nail down or predict and two usually fail epically because we are trying to wedge in 32 or below temps when precip has already started way before the main portion of the system is over us. This could easily be 33 and moderate rain over a long duration or 31 and not really accrue ice.

Man just completely smoked down here on sat/sun with freezing rain on GFS. Would be lights out verbatim.

Impressive with the banana high structure coupled with the 1029-1032 up above both those highs as well.

Nam is lights out madness up this way. “The eggs are cooling, the butter is getting hard and the jell-o is jiggling.”

Agreed much warmer run and more north with the initial wave on thur/fri. Idk about you all but I can see this easily being a cold rain for even up my way and the models being too aggressive with the cold push. Wouldn’t shock me anyhow considering the run to run inconsistencies this year.

12k and 3k Nam are worlds apart. Go figure... lolll

Still Uber cold for the majority of the forum. Would def cause some significant concerns for areas not accustomed to this type of stuff.

@BornAgain13 12z Icon between 60-66 coming in much colder at 2m. Thurs night may be a very sneaky event

Holy crap! That’s like a late 90s weather setup there. I remember living up north and the the power trucks headed toward the Carolinas when the ice storms would roll through. Pretty much every model I’ve seen depicts a significant event for a majority of the weather board in that time frame. I don’t think I will personally get over invested until Thursday or Friday just because the models have been so flippy floppy as of late.

I don’t trust the euro man.. it hasn’t been itself lately. I feel rain and mid 30s for our areas. The NAM’s thermals are also a red flag for me.

I’ll be cheering for you guys. This has N VA/DC on north type of setup. At the minimum mid levels will be cooking down here.

Honestly I have no idea. It’s super odd. I live more or less out in the country compared to downtown Roanoke or anything like that. I’m in between exit 137 and 132 if you are familiar with the area up this way. Only thing that would make sense is rates and the simple fact that you most likely had some good bands come through and we did not.

Sorry to be a Deb guys but this is a laughable storm. Stayed stuck at 34 for a long time. 4-8” turned into 1-1.5” out there. I saw no model that had me under 3”. Roadways are wet. Terrible model guidance down this way. Really hoping the next 10-15 days isn’t wasted. Don’t care if it’s ice or snow as long as it’s wintry,

Laughable storm up this way. Stayed stuck at 34 for majority of storm. 4-8” turned into 1-1.5”. Roads simply wet. Not a single model from what I saw had me under 3”. Terrible guidance on this one. Congrats to the south. You guys deserved it and HRRR scored a big coup down that way.