beavis1729

A bit toasty in TX today.  Cotulla is 109/63/113 at 3 pm local time...and only under a Heat Advisory.  And far south TX isn't even under an advisory - Brownsville is 96/75/108. I'm guessing their advisory criteria is 110+.

Just run of the mill stuff. 

9 hours ago, Powerball said:

Another record maximum low tied this morning at DFW of 84°F (last set in 2011).

Intra-hour low of 82.

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

It is officially the hottest day of the year, with a 4pm temp of 105°F at DFW.

Per the 4pm daily climate report, looks like an intra-hour high of 106. Just missed the record of 107 from 1956.

The current hot weather in Dallas (and the potential for even hotter temps by mid-month if the GFS verifies) made me look at July 1980. 

Just amazing - every single day that month was 100+ at DFW...in fact, the lowest daily max was 101. Hottest temp was 110 on the 2nd and 18th. Average high temp in July 1980 was 105.3.

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Another loltastic thing from that run... on the hottest day, it is already 105 at 10 am in Missouri.

Yeah. 12z is showing 110-115 in parts of Nebraska at Day 8...not completely clown range.

A bit toasty in the TN valley today...Memphis is 101/75/115.

Just unbearable...and it has been like this for a few days already, with no significant relief in sight.

14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The criteria for an EHW outside of Cook Co is two days of heat indices of 110+.

Thanks, and my bad on the exact criteria.  But that just reinforces the point that the criteria seem to be too strict. 

Just my two cents...but even one day of 110+ HI (or 2 days of 105+ HI), along with the wet bulb global temp considerations that Hoosier mentioned, seems to be more than enough for a warning.  I understand that the NWS doesn't want to be accused of crying wolf...but anything close to a 110 HI for even two seconds is brutal with no AC.  It can cause major problems for vulnerable people.

Probably not worth nit-picking to death...but it's strange that RFD isn't under an excessive heat warning, even as it's 95/79/113.

Seems like an abundance of caution should be taken for heat-related hazards, given the reports you often hear of children being left in cars, people with no AC, etc. 

Side note - I've always thought that the heat advisory and excessive heat warning thresholds in the LOT area are too strict to begin with.  In other words, it's extremely difficult to hit the excessive heat warning criteria.  Even with this in mind, today isn't a case of whether the criteria are too strict; the criteria were met in RFD but they're only under a heat advisory.  And the overnight low temps, amount of sun, etc. could be considered too. RFD only dropped to 77 this morning, with dews in the mid-upper 70s for 9-12 consecutive hours.

FEP 92/82/114

IKK 97/77/113

RFD 94/78/110

MLI 97/74/109

ORD 90/75/101

Low of 83 this morning in STL, which will probably hold through the rest of the day (1 am CDT).  This ties the daily record from 2012.

I looked at STL's F-6 from July 2012...can't believe how hot that month was there.  15 days of 100+, including a max/min of 108/86 on July 25th. Average high/low for the month was 98.6/77.5, about 8 degrees above normal.

Interesting data. While I don’t live in the region, I have a theory as to why the week before Christmas has seen the most warming. I think it’s a few things:

(1) Some randomness of the data, as powderfreak mentioned 

(2) SSTs are warming, and this time of year could be when coastal temps are highly influenced by SSTs
 

(3) This is a time of year when snow pack in the immediate source region is highly variable from one year to the next. And due to the general background warming trend and the sensitivity of upstream snow cover at this time of the year, there are many more years with little/no snow on the ground upstream (and in SNE) than there used to be. 
 

Once you get into January, there is probably a good amount of upstream snow cover regardless of how mild December has been…which is why the warming in January isn’t as great. 

3 minutes ago, Brian D said:

90 in town right now. Summer has arrived. A bit later than the rest of you, but that's to be expected.

Very impressive for your location, especially in June. I’m guessing you only average 2-3 90+ days each year?

If it holds through the rest of the day (1 am CDT), this morning's low of 77 in Fargo would be their 2nd warmest min on record in June, and 4th warmest all-time. Records go back to 1881.

The only warmer mins are:

7/10/1936: high 110, low 82

7/11/1936: high 106, low 80

6/28/1996: high 93, low 78

9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

100 in Fargo.  Record there is 101.

Ended up hitting 101, with 7 consecutive hourly obs of 99 or higher. Very impressive. 

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Speaking of the Canadian, talk about a regional inferno on Tue on the RGEM lol

Yeah - it shows 105 in Grand Forks ND on Sunday and Monday 

11 minutes ago, Baum said:

so it's where Beavis vacations in the summer. Gotcha.

Correct sir…believe it or not, was just up there in early June. 60s during the day inland (50s on the water) and 40s at night. 

Mixing out a bit here…currently 95/73/106.

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Plus by that point, that is another week with little/no rain if things go "right."   

Yep.  From MSP...interesting discussion. May be the official start of the Hoosier drought watch:

Friday through Monday... A rare and intense heat wave is appearing
likely Saturday through Monday. The late week trough will dive down
into New England and the western Atlantic while another deep trough
will reside over the West Coast, setting up an Omega pattern with
strong ridging centered along the Mississippi Valley. Model guidance
is unusually consistent at this range and thus forecast confidence is
rather high. 12Z ECMWF ensemble Extreme Forecast Index from Monday
suggests 90 percent of ensemble members exceed the 5-week centered
model climate MaxT values in parts of the Upper Midwest. In other
words, it`s already a near certainty 5 to 6 days out of near or
record breaking temperatures. Even more impressive, the Shift of
Tails (SOT) values of 1 to 2 suggest temperatures could be well above
records. It is hard to get a SOT greater than 1 for temperatures.

The NBM seems to be handling this event well already, even given the
potential rarity of it. Have made minimal or no changes to the NBM.
The heat dome begins to arrive Saturday when highs are expected to
reach well into the 90s across western MN. By Sunday, widespread
highs of 100 to 105 are forecast across MN, with 95 to 100 across WI.
Shockingly, the NBM 5th percentile is forecasting highs around 100
across west central MN. In other words, 95 percent of the guidance
that makes up the NBM is forecasting 100+ degrees. I cannot remember
a time I`ve seen such high confidence of record/near record
temperatures in this area on day 5.

11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

We'll see, but I wonder if early next week starts to bump hotter than it currently appears.  It has more of a westerly component in the low level flow than what we are seeing now and in the short term, and in general and without regard to any localized influences, those days with more of a westerly aspect have tended to perform well wrt big heat in previous years.

Agree…and the point for MSP is 100+ for Sunday and Monday. 

89/75/100 here, not a cloud in the sky

2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

DVN had a low of 80 this morning, and MLI had a heat index of 90 at 3am.  

Low of 79 at MLI - warmest min on record for so early in the season, by far.  Previous record was 79 on 6/27/1874 (!).

16 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

107 in Nebraska.


.

Make that 108…North Platte 108/36/101.

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Fairly widespread 80-82 degree dews in central/southern IL now helps the case for building extreme CAPE and trying to overcome capping later as this airmass advects farther north.  

Yep. The dew at ORD has already increased by 14 degrees over the past 4 hours (49 to 63)...with much more to come. And the dew at IKK is up to 75.

This airmass is crazy for the heart of summer, but especially mid-June.

Low this morning of 81 in Paducah KY, which ties the all-time June record warm min (81 on 6/23/2016).

Low this morning of 83 in St. Louis MO, which is an all-time Jume record warm min (82 on 6/25/1988).  And, it's already 86/78/98 at 8 AM.

I'm assuming these mins will hold through midnight...which should be no problem given the capping there.

36 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Miami average high for Jun 12:  89

Miami record high for Jun 12:  95

lol.  Obviously this is an extreme example as they are in the southern US and near the water, but still.

Key West is even more dramatic, especially in August when the water temps are at their warmest.  

Average high for Aug 12th:  91

Record high for Aug 12th:  95