beavis1729

Thoughts?

1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

Ready 2 b buried

Since this is a marginal set-up to begin with, it would help if Lake Michigan temps were actually near normal or slightly below. 

Typically, lake water temps are at their annual minimum in early March.

20 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Seems like we say this every storm, but the lack of consensus getting closer to the event is ridiculous. How are the pros supposed to forecast this for John Q public who has no weather knowledge but will bash away if the forecast is wrong?

 

Good point; I think the answer is probabilistic forecasts. And if John Q Public doesn’t have the skill set to understand probabilities and why that approach is needed in certain situations, then it’s on them. 

11 minutes ago, Stebo said:

And this is why I like March snows. They melt within a few days

 

Normally, I hear you.  But when DJF disappoints (which it often does), there's a need to make up for it in Nov/March.

There's always a reason to lower the bar - "the lake is too warm before Dec 15th", "average temps and/or sun angle are increasing quickly after Feb 15th", bad pattern, Index ABCDEFG isn't timed perfectly, on and on and on and on.  How refreshing it would be if we actually had a sacred part of winter with no worries about the pattern - it's just winter because of the calendar.  We don't have this for literally any day.  I'd like it for all of DJF, much less one fooking sacred day.  So, I'm batting 0 for 90 - not good odds.

Heck, it was 60 degrees in early Jan 2008 - at the coldest time of the year.  That's not supposed to happen. It seems like every DJF has several days over 40F, even in good/decent months...which just isn't right.

Feb 2015 was great.  Not saying every Feb needs to be like that - but Feb 2015 should be closer to "expected" than Feb 2023, that's for sure.

We need to turn around the PNA and AMO to have any hope for better times ahead. 

Back to your regularly scheduled programming...

4 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Josh will find a way to turn this all against you.

Ha ha - all good, not personal or anything...I just detest our climo and our low standards for winter.

When we have a 980 low in the location where it's at, we should be hoping for/expecting something similar to GHD 1, or Jan 1999...or at minimum a widespread 6-12" storm with no worries about a tiny jackpot area, or temps being marginal, etc.  This is what I mean about everyone's expectations being so low.  It drives me crazy.  We should all be furious about this storm/setup.

20 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Well, it’s official. February 2023 was the LEAST snowiest on record for Columbus with a TRACE. Easily a D- in my book for this winter. ONLY reason not an F in my book is b/c of white Christmas. So, in light of that, GO F YOURSELF MOTHER NATURE!!!

Can’t wait for a miserable spring soccer season too. Yippee!!!

You fellow Ohio’ins take care of yourself & hope to talk a lot more snow next winter!

 Couldn't have said it better myself...yet another ****** F winter imby too. 

As you suggested, maybe a D-- at best, due to the White Christmas...but then we're just playing into the forum's new mindset these days and mindlessly accepting the ridiculously low bar.  And it was only 1-2" of depth anyway.

1 minute ago, roardog said:

It’s March now so yes snow retention in Chicago will suck until late next year. 

I guess...but it has sucked the entire winter.

35 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

people should have never gotten invested several days out from a thread the needle potential in a not so great pattern in the first place.

Correct...as much as I hate to admit this reality. 

And, even if a certain location hits the jackpot, the snow will melt and/or lose its character within a couple days anyway.  There's just no cold air anywhere.  This has been the most pathetic winter for so many areas of the country south of 45N...it's just laughable.  And I don't want to hear about how snowfall amounts technically aren't that much below normal for some areas; I'm talking the overall feel, temps, SDDs, tenor, etc. And ice storms don't matter, unless it's on top of snow on the ground (which wasn't the case).

And I would still be relatively disappointed north of 45N; just too many thaws.  If I lived in MSP, I'd go with B+...maybe A- at best due to the warmth. 

23 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

some are not as far away as you think.

I’ll take the bait. BowMe = UMB Wx. If so, I have no ill will…welcome back. 

11 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Which one?

 Ha ha…not often you see a 108 degree gradient. 

Dallas was near 90 today, and it’s currently -18 in Bottineau ND. Not bad. 

5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

BowMe, eh?


.

I wasn’t tuned in to the drama back then…could have been worse than I imagined. Others probably know better. 
 

Not trying to dig up gremlins from the past - just remembering the good times. 

We need to bring BowMe, Geos, and daddylonglegs back to help the mojo in here. The good old days of 2013-14.

And…

’copter

16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

beavis taking L's everywhere.

Do people really think that DJF temps right on the immediate lakeshore aren’t warmer than ORD, especially in the 1800s when there was no UHI at the present-day location of ORD? Or, that 4 of the 6 warmest winters in history all occurred in a 7-year span?? That points to the observation site being a factor. 
 

You know, how Alek celebrates going past Thanksgiving without a freeze, seemingly year after year?
 

Of course it’s different in MAM, due to the lake breeze.

48 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Those winters were absolute furnaces in this area of the Midwest and there is plenty of documentation of that regardless of what station you use. Lol so now we are supposed to just get rid of older warm winters. Winter 1881-82 is detroits warmest winter on record BY FAR. Nothing has come close to touching it. Winter 1877-78 is well documented as Minnesotas year without a winter. 1931-32 has lots of newspaper stories of things blooming and growing throughout the winter (til March got cold). 

I’m not saying we throw them out…or that those 1800s winters weren’t mild.. but it’s well known that average temps in downtown Chicago are materially warmer than ORD, especially earlier in the winter due to marine influence (even with the increase in UHI at ORD over time).
 

If the DJF temps in the 1800s were measured at present-day ORD, they would have been colder (especially at night)…especially since there was no UHI at this location back then. 
 

Regardless of these details, I’m most upset about the fact that there were mild winters in the 1800s. I keep hoping these recent obnoxiously mild winters are a fluke…but unfortunately they don’t seem to be. 

I would throw out (or at least asterisk) the warm DJFs from the 1800s, as the official measurements were influenced heavily by the downtown and/or lakeside location. Similar to Logan Airport for Boston. 
 

That’s why 5 of the top 6 warmest DJFs occurred in the late 1800s. It’s not as if all of those winters were warmer than some of our recent clunkers, apples to apples. 
 

Regardless, this list highlights how bad the winter climo is for downtown Chicago. It’s already bad enough inland…

This event looks to mimic the infamous January 1999 storm, but 150 miles further north. 

14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z Euro Weeklies hold serve and did not continue the warming trend, and were slightly colder.  

Thank you sir. What timeframe are you focusing on…weeks 1-2, 3-5, or both? Unfortunately recent op runs (FWIW) seem to hinting at a strong warm up next week. Would be great if the weeklies were going against this idea. 

1 hour ago, Baum said:

This winter is going to break some has already destroyed many people, including me...and it's not acceptable.  Chicago deserves better than this crap.

FYP 

10 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Heavy rain 

45 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Do we really want any cold in late February.  Seems for most cold means 33 cold rain outside mountains & favored areas.  Or could be the cold enough for freezing rain. Ugh.  One thing does look certain is it’s going to be wet. I have said it before & will say it again.  I hate cold springs! 

I look at it differently. Ideally, I would like 4 months of winter (11/15 to 3/15), as we don’t have nearly enough of it. 
 

To me, the idea of “winter” means a generally consistent and dependable period with snow on the ground, with frozen lakes and ponds. Currier and Ives stuff.  Doesn’t mean every single day has to have high temp below freezing…but winter is such a short and up-and-down season in my neck of the woods. For instance, we may get 2-3” of snow tomorrow, but then it will melt in a couple days. And we’ve had bare ground for much of the season so far. That drives me crazy. If it were November or March, no problem…but I prefer a reliable wintry “feel” in DJF. Then let the warm mongers enjoy the other 9 months. 
 

We can get good wintry events and periods imby, but it’s not consistent enough. Unfortunately, you need to live at 45N or further north in the Midwest for that.
 

So, I’m not really ready for spring until 3/15. By that point, the daylight gets so long that you can’t really fight the season anymore. Our climo (even in northern IL) isn’t great for winter…so we might as well root for as much of it as possible. 

25 minutes ago, Baum said:

LOT issues a WSW for northern tier of counties. Board shrugs.

I relate to your frustration.  For me personally, it's not that exciting since it's still winter the last I checked...and any snow that falls will melt in two days.  It's fine for this to happen on 11/15 or 3/15, but not mid-Feb. And, the heaviest (while not 100% certain) will likely be north of mby.

The pattern next week could get interesting, but unfortunately we're getting to the point in the season where you really need a great pattern to continue in order to keep the snow around.

I know my reply is drenched in cynicism and pessimism, and I applaud your optimism.  But that's what years and years of horrible winters do to you.

31 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

is something trying to happen?

 Yeah, unfortunately the key words are something and trying. 12z Canadian op has a crazy temp gradient at hour 180…80s in TX, 20s here, subzero in MN. 

14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I wonder what their total would be right now if they didn't have Lake Michigan upwind.  Probably be in the same boat as me... i.e. ~9"

Yeah, sounds about right. 

21 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Nobody's gonna feel sorry when you're near 47 inches.  

I do - because South Bend has only had 6 days with 6"+ of snow cover...and they were all in November.  That's almost hard to believe when you've had 47" of snow for the season...but it's the same culprit again - way too many thaws.  

Like the rest of us south of 45N, they've essentially had no winter during DJF.  

This is example #50,000 which shows that our climo problem is temps, not snowfall...and that snow totals don't always correlate to the tenor of a winter.