beavis1729

5 hours ago, madwx said:

Who left Beavis in charge of today’s GFS?

 Ha, ran it from my basement but the GPS fix was off a bit. One pixel in SE MN showed 90”.

16 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I think most people here do have some standards for how winter should be, though the standards aren't in the same league as yours.  And when standards aren't met, it's more like "oh well, better luck next year" instead of being as emotionally invested as you are.

imo, it's just not worth getting so invested in something that you can't control.  Unless you're making your own snow, you can't control how much snow there is in your backyard.  And even then, what about everywhere else around you?

Having high standards isn't a bad thing.  I do.  I just reserve that for things that I can control.  For example, I love lifting weights.  There are many mental and physical health benefits that not only serve me well now as I close in on 40, but will hopefully pay off all the way through old age.  I love the journey.  I love trying to get better.  Perfect linear progress doesn't happen forever, but you put the work in to be the best version of yourself.  

I can relate to that - and I'm 48, not getting any younger.  Thankfully I have a stable job and am in fairly good health, so I have the luxury of caring about first-world problems.  I guess when you love something a lot, you get emotionally invested.  Probably not the smartest or most logical thing to do - but a lot of my job is logical and analytical, so I need an outlet for the emotional side.  

At ORD - for the period 12/1/22 to 2/15/23 (based on this week’s forecast), only 38% of these days will have a high temp colder than 35F.  That is ridiculous.  How can it be winter unless at least 80% of these days…and ideally more…are colder than 35F.  It's hard to be ok with this.  Even if it were as low as 70%, that would be understandable (yet still disappointing)…but 38% is unacceptable.  It illustrates my main point throughout all of this - south of 45N, we’re shockingly far away from winter should be – it’s laughable and frustrating to no end.  Not even close.

It would be great if it wasn't ever above freezing in January, and if it never rains during DJF.  If these things occur rarely, that’s fine…despite my wishes.  In that case, it's ok to reduce standards a bit, and be somewhat realistic.  But at some point, it becomes blatant grade inflation and unacceptable.  Let’s just reduce our standards so far that winter only needs to be colder than fall.  Hooray – we win!!  It sucks - and I hate pretending it's ok, because then it feels like an admission that I've given up on Mother Nature and the hope & beauty of winter.

Am I a weenie for thinking it shouldn’t rain more than a day or two during the winter?  If so, guilty as charged…but to me, that’s a perfectly reasonable wish.  I’m not suggesting we need to see 200” of snow every season with blizzards and brutal cold day after day.  But it sucks to see puddles during winter – it’s not natural.

Even though the 2022-23 winter has definitely been Exhibit A of crap, this general theme has essentially been true for the past 8 winters.  It eats at you when it's long-lasting.  Sure, we’ve seen some “wintry periods” during these years…but that’s not what the winter season is supposed to represent.  Yes, the good periods are great, and they are welcome and appreciated…but the rest of the time winter seems to go MIA.  It can’t be all or nothing from week to week.  

On August 8th, no one is worried about the EPO, PDO, AMO, ENSO state, etc.  99 out of 100 times, you know it will be warm on August 8th.  Yes, there could be the fluke Pinatubo summer, or an occasional rain-cooled day (which will still be humid)…but no one thinks about the million things that need to go right.  This is how winter should be too – it’s only 3 months out of the year.  Let it be sacred.  It’s understandable for November and March/April to be up and down – but not DJF.  But that adds another problem - because DJF have been so bad recently, there’s a huge need to make up for it in November, March, and April.  It shouldn’t need to be this way – but what else are you going to do?

Assuming we love winter (which is mainly why we’re here in the first place?), I think we have every right to complain and be sad about what is going on.  Then, add that the NWS or the public doesn’t care about our crappy winters – it’s just insult to injury.  I hate seeing AFDs which say “thankfully, the cold temps will be short-lived”.  Boo fooking hoo – it’s cold during the winter.  Not that the NWS (or the public) should be expected to care…but since they don’t, we need to take up the cause here.  There’s nowhere else to vent.  The irony is that, in northern WI, it’s the reverse.  The public actually gets very upset when winter isn’t occurring, just like me.  Amazing – they enjoy winter and being outside to experience it!  That’s another topic entirely...
 

4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

MSP is +23.1" on the season, has had a snow depth of at least 6" since Dec 20th and a snow depth of at least 1" since Nov 30th.

Edit: Add in 11 days with sub-zero temps.

total misery.

Touche, and fair enough - I probably picked a bad example. 

But it sucks when it's sunny and in the 40s in Feb.  Why is that controversial?  And, either way, who cares how MSP is doing vs. their climo; it only matters how they're doing in an absolute sense vs. what winter should be like.  Miami had a great winter vs. climo in 1976-77, with all of the oranges destroyed and temps in the 20s with snow flurries on one day. Does that mean they had a good winter?  Of course not.

And, please everyone - don't put words in my mouth.  I've never demanded Siberia or interior Alaska, or even the Keewenaw.  It's very simple - on Feb 8th, it should be cold with snow cover and frozen lakes.  End of story.  Is that really a "next level" request?  Are we not allowed to want it to be winter in DJF?  I'm tired of having to depend on events, as opposed to being able to rely on the calendar.  Sure, good winters can have more events than bad winters...but all that really means is there's either 20" of snow cover and 20" ice depth on Feb 8th in a good winter, vs. 6"/6" in a bad winter.  The season looks like the season should, no matter what the winter-to-winter variability is.

It's exhausting to accept everyone's low standards...like we're psychologically convincing ourselves that everything is ok, when it's not.  It's easy to be content when standards are low - a good metaphor for life.  

Look at the F-6 for Minocqua this winter so far.  46N in the great state of Wisconsin.  It's been a sub-par winter for their standards...and it's a neighboring state, and not very far away...yet it has looked and felt like winter since 12/1.  Most days have highs 15-35 and lows -5 to 15.  Nothing crazy - just consistent winter.  And, again, this is a bad winter for them!  A bad winter vs. climo there is a great winter vs. climo here - it sucks.

1 minute ago, madwx said:

looks like MSN is reeling this one in.  Partying like it's 2007-2009 again

But it will melt in a couple of days anyway - what's the point?  I didn't realize it was April. 

1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

43 degrees. First time breaching 40 since November 

That sucks...even our friends at 45N can't escape the misery of this winter.

Hopefully you can retain a decent snow cover.

52 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Hey Beavis, come to Wiscahhnsin, why don't cha?

 You got it - I already go several times per year, and wish it could be even more often.  We have friends with a place in Waupaca, and we snowmobile a few times in Jan/Feb the North Woods.  It's a different world - even in a crappy winter when a million indices aren't aligned perfectly, they still have meaningful snow cover that actually stays white throughout the winter, even with an occasional thaw.  And you know the lakes will be frozen - it's just a question of whether there's 8" or 20" ice thickness.

Yeah, that’s insane. It’s possible that Portland and Caribou come close to their all time WC records too. Per NWS, I think it’s -43 and -58 respectively. 

21 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

-44/-103 on Mount Washington currently.

Wow…all time record -47?

6 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I really do get where you're coming from dude, but even so, it's apparent that you have strictly next-level expectations. You're right, winters since about GHD II have been pretty boring save a few memorable stretches. But even so, we're not rationalizing how bad it is now, that's just how it is. The last few years are how it's supposed to be. Unless you plan on moving (which you can't) or having a winter performance related stroke, you have to accept that. 

Hopefully one of these years we'll get something again. 

I hear you.

A co-worker of mine is a diehard Bears fan. I mean over the top, crazy, and intense. And, of course, the past several years have been bad for the Bears. Instead of trying to explain to them to not worry about it, and minimize their feelings, I try to listen and empathize with them. It’s not my role to diminish their love for the Bears. Who knows - maybe it came from a father-son bond, or some other reason. That’s my point - we should empathize with each other and bond over our love of winter - and not argue or minimize it. Sometimes people just want to know that someone can understand. 

26 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I'm really not sure who's defending this winter. Every single snow lover on here that I can think of -even the ones that acknowledge that statistically, this winter outcome is completely within the normal envelope of possibilities- has admitted that this winter sucks balls. 

What I don't get is that the last like twelve times you've made this post, the exact same thing happens: a couple of people offer real, accurate, climatological data that clearly shows that we cannot expect wall-to-wall snowcover in our winters here. Is this winter really that horrendous? Of course it sucks, but is this winter such an incredible anomaly? Why is it that you relentlessly keep confusing your expectations based on a postcard Christmas with real climo? I can tell you right now that I love snow as much -if not more- than you do. But my brother, we do not live in Quebec. 

Baum defended the pre-Christmas storm, and it sent me over the edge. Sorry Baum - not personal of course. You just happened to make the post that sums up the issue .

I constantly see people on this forum saying that this winter (and actually every winter after 2014-15) were just a fact of life and/or “just a part of our climo”. But that doesn’t make it better. Why are we trying to rationalize how bad it is?

It’s bad enough that the general public does this, but we shouldn’t do this here. What’s the point of commiserating with like-minded people? 
 

I never said we need feet of snow and constant subzero temps like in Quebec. But lakes and ponds should be frozen and there should be snow on the ground, without anxiety of when the melt will happen. But in our area, the melt is always around the corner. Let’s just admit this, and drown our sorrows together. It’s so exhausting, but I need to stay here due to family and job. When you love something and have other issues and stress going on, it’s hard to balance it all 24/7. Every so often, I need to vent. And, of course, no “normal” warm weather lovers can relate…which is why I’m here. 
 

13 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Beavis approved climo

Yep…although I’m actually surprised that their record isn’t higher. I guess it’s because Bismarck has a pretty dry climate, and despite the overall cold they occasionally get chinooks that melt the snow…and even a lot of sun and wind over time can reduce the snow cover (all else being equal).

They probably have constant snow cover a lot…but mainly in the 4-10” range as opposed to 12”+.

5 hours ago, Baum said:

Just because it missed us to the east with it's main accumulations does not it mean it didn't happen. Could also add one of the most impactful 1-3" snows given the wind and cold associated with it over a wide area I've seen in some time. So of course, it leaves us with;what could have been.

Not directed at you…but why are people’s expectations so low in our subforum? Even for the locations that got a bit more than 1-3” in the pre-Christmas storm, the snow melted by New Years. So, it was yet another disappointment for all. Yes, we had a little bit of snow and short lived blizzard conditions in some areas…but it’s winter. Yes, it was cold…but it’s winter. Yes, we had a White Christmas. That’s good, but it’s what winter should be - and it’s not like we had an exceptional December before then. So, having a White Christmas unfortunately ended up only being a consolation prize amid a sea of crap.

And, now, even after a week of decent cold which finally froze the lakes and ponds, it will all be undone in 3 days…and you’ll start seeing puddles on the lakes and dirty melting snow…yet again.

Why can’t we just admit this, together? There’s no need to protect and defend our horrible climo.

Many of us are clearly frustrated by yet another horrendous winter - and we have every right to be. Why do so many people keep insisting on polishing turds, and fighting back? Let’s just accept it.
 

We need to stop comparing things to climo - there are certain absolute standards for what winter should be. When Hoosier wakes up every morning over the last 60 days and never sees the grass covered with snow AT ALL, it means our climo is beyond horrible. Of course this extreme form of crap doesn’t happen every year…but the fact that it can even happen at all is horrendous. Even if grass showed on 30 of these 60 days, it would be bad. But zero days - it’s beyond comprehension.
 

We need to let people call things what they are, and stop sugar coating. The same thing is true out East this year - and they have every right to be frustrated like we do. You’d think we could all agree on this and drown our sorrows and commiserate together on this…but yet people keep fighting back and defending. Our bar is so low these days, that it’s underground. We don’t deserve this. 
 

Let’s just be ok with saying that we all love winter in different ways…and it sucks when we don’t get to experience it. The other 9 months can be whatever it wants to be…but DJF should be sacred. There - I said it. 

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

A day (actually, 2 days) to remember.  Our staff biologist and I made a 3-day trip to see northern Maine sites with BPL's North region foresters.  The afternoon of the 14th we were on the Soper Mountain public lot, next to Big Eagle Lake in Allagash country.  It was mild - low 30s - when a snow squall arrived and the temp began to fall.  We then drove to Portage Lake as we were staying at the Maine Forest Service building on the east shore of the lake.  By the time we got back there from dinner it was -2 with howling wind.  Next morning the temp was -32 there and the wind gauge was hovering above/below 30 mph.  (MFS has quality instruments, important for fire control purposes.)  CAR reported -20 with WCI -85 (old scale - probably near -60 on the new).  When one drives 250 miles to see something, one goes out, or as one UM forestry professor used to say, "There's no such thing as inclement weather, only improper clothing."
In the morning we were mostly sheltered from the wind.  Not so after noon, at the Bald Mountain public lot about 20 miles west of Ashland and 800-1000 feet higher than CAR, where the max was -9.  We were okay in the woods, but about 4 when we got back to the sleds, the wind was still roaring with the temp likely in the -15 range.  The ride back included 2 miles on plowed road due to the only place we could park, and I was riding 2nd up on a tundra behind a regional forester about 5'1" tall - no place for me to hide.  1988 Tundras maxed out at maybe 45 mph and the quartering headwind probably meant an apparent speed closer to 60.  I held my fists against my cheeks, which helped but left me with hourglass-shaped white spots, fortunately 1st degree frostbite with no lasting impact.  Day 3, at Deboullie, was cold but not very windy, just another cold day in N. Maine.

See below:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1258 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move south of the region today. A
powerful arctic cold front will cross the area Friday morning.
Frigid arctic high pressure will build in from the west Friday into
Saturday. A warm front will lift across the area Sunday. Weak low
pressure will track north of the area Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1230pm update...
The Blizzard Warning was issued in response to the blowing snow
and whiteout threat in the warned area. Snow accumulations will
be an inch or less. The blowing snow threat will be in open
terrain where whiteouts are most likely to affect motorists.
Discussions with state and county authorities involved in
public safety this week, and after similar events in past years,
have favored this stronger alert/messaging.

The arctic front arrives later tonight with plunging
temperatures, blowing snow and dangerous wind chills. The front
crosses after midnight and is expected to be exiting the state
by 4am. Temperatures plummet with the frontal passage and
continue to fall relentlessly into Friday night. Winds kick up
immediately with frontal passage with gusts reaching the 35 to
45 mph range. Blowing snow will start with the frontal passage
and continue all day and into Friday night. The worst will be in
Aroostook County where the Blizzard Warning was issued due to
the blowing snow/ground blizzard threat in open terrain. Wind
chills drop steadily all day into the evening, reaching below
minus 50F by late afternoon in the Saint John Valley and
dropping towards minus 45F at Bangor by late evening.

Interestingly, using CIPS analogs, a top analog is the Jan 14,
1988 event when Caribou last experienced a wind chill of less
than minus 50F. The lowest recorded wind chill at Caribou was
minus 58.6F in 1951.

It will be a bit chilly over the next couple of days at Mount Washington NH.  850 temps near -40C.

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Here's a little bone for beavis.

GFS has 468 dm thicknesses getting into northern Maine in 3-4 days (actually has a pocket of 462 dm thicknesses in Canada!).  Euro looks like it doesn't quite make it into Maine but it's very close.

Yeah, I've been tracking that over the past couple of days. When was the last time we've seen a 462 dm thickness anywhere on a NA map, and a 468 dm thickness in the US?

I know we often see very intense short-lived cold outbreaks here (late January 2019 is Exhibit A - ugh).  But what will happen in New England is crazy - basically 36 hours of intense cold, then an incredibly quick warm-up to normal+ as if it never happened.

3 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Incorrect on the cloud cover. It was clear everywhere until basically sunrise. And I wouldn't say the cold underperformed. We were slightly too cold at RPJ, we had ORD at -1 to -2, and we never had RFD tagging 10 below. We went below MOS guidance. The Euro was overdone with the coverage of teens below zero (and the GEMs are always overdone), but getting 7 sites to -10F or colder in our late AM updated RTP is not really underperforming imo.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=LOT&product=RTP&site=lot

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Thanks for responding, as always.  I don't mean underperformed relative to NWS forecasts - I just mean underperformed relative to what should have happened given the situation and time of year.  And, the fact that cloud cover really wasn't an issue makes it even worse. Unfortunately UHI always kills things, even in the suburbs.  We just don't radiate well unless there is a very deep snowpack and the high is in an absolutely perfect place...and, even then, it's not always guaranteed.  I thought we'd easily hit -8 to -10 imby, but we only dropped to -5.

Many people here seem to care about forecasts...and obviously you need to at the NWS.  But I only care about outcomes. I'd love nothing more than a forecast of 2" of snow to go horribly wrong, and we end up with 10".

After looking into this further, the airmass itself wasn't really that impressive - thicknesses were only around 520.  So, my expectations may have been a bit too high for this morning.

I just hoped we were set up for an optimal starry night with some crazy temp drops - but it just didn't happen.  Our MSN poster had a low of -17, with some -20s nearby...but nothing close to that here.  That's what I'm referring to.   

Dare I bring up the 1/31/2019 debacle at ORD...4 years ago today. 

Unfortunately, the cold actually underperformed in N IL by roughly 3-5 degrees, likely due to UHI and a bit of unexpected cloud cover. 
 

ORD only hit -1, and it was -5 here. -9 in DKB and -11 at RFD. I shouldn’t even need to say this since it should be a given…but, yes, all of these areas have snow cover. 

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

As we close in on February, I'd have to say that this is about the most pathetic winter I've ever seen in this area up to this point.  I've lived in a few different locations so let's just say the years I've been living around the I-80 corridor.  Still have not had the grass fully covered yet.  The December storm might have done it if there hadn't been so much blowing/drifting, but hard to say.  Still haven't had a 3" snowfall.  Not to go all beavis on ya but that is just ridiculous for this latitude.

Go for it - it's completely justified. 

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

First off, and I'll say this respectfully, try not to stress about weather related things that you can't control. Variability is the hallmark of our winter weather here, regardless of background climate warming context. You're pining for a winter climate that does not exist at this latitude west of the lake.

Now, regarding the measurement, why shouldn't the depth have compacted to 2" by 6pm today? It was a relatively wet snow and the temperature reached the mid 30s. Saying the measurement seems inflated because essentially you're annoyed that we didn't hold onto the max depth is...not a great argument about the measurement being inflated.

A 6 hour board clearing method will often come in higher than measurements of volunteer observers who we can't require to do 6 hour board clearing snow obs, but it does a better job capturing snow that does occur. It also accounts for some compaction. The 6 hour board clearing method has been used for decades at official climate sites and I don't anticipate that changing.

If you want people to respect the posts you make more, rant less about things out of your control, post more about the forecast, ask questions about certain setups if you have any, and enjoy the weather you prefer when we do get it.



 

I hear you, and appreciate your response. 

The main reason I post on here is for the commiseration with fellow winter lovers...not so much the forecast details.  In a society where cold and snow lovers are essentially banished, I figured a forum like this is a good place to chat with like-minded individuals.  But I guess that's only true up to a point.  It's like a die-hard Cubs fan who pines for a World Series - you drown your sorrows with fellow Cubs fans and complain/hope each year will be better than the last, even though you have no control...and then the magic happened after 108 years.

And I do immensely respect what you and the others do at the NWS.  Deploying science and good communication skills to protect the public - a very noble combination.  When I was finishing up my meteorology degree at NIU in 1995, I volunteered at LOT that summer...which is when the insane heat wave occurred.  I had the humble opportunity to broadcast over NOAA weather radio - kind of a weenie and nerdy thing I guess, but it was one of my most enjoyable summers.  I also worked construction outdoors that summer - so being in the comfortable AC in the Romeoville office felt good too. I remember Ratzer and Merzlock were there - I assume they've retired.       

1 hour ago, NEILwxbo said:

So if it snowed 1” and melts by observation time it shouldn’t count as snow? 

It’s not black and white - it’s a balance. Just seems strange that 3.5 inches “falls” continuously over 12 hours (not just in the first 2-3 hours), but the depth after those same 12 hours is only 2”.

Part of the frustration is our climo. If ORD’s average seasonal snowfall is only 37” even with this way of measuring, it only feels like 30-35” actually fell when you look at the depth after it snows.

Example - If we receive 15” of snow in December, there should be at least 10” on the ground at the end of the month. Of course there is some melting and compaction…but the depth should build up throughout the winter. We don’t live in Dallas. It’s so hard to maintain a clean snowpack here…and today just sent me over the edge because we finally get the first decent snow of the season…but we can’t even maintain snow cover while the snow is still falling! I’d even be upset if 3.5” dropped to a 2” depth within 5 days after the snow ended…but what happened today is just ridiculous. It’s January, not April.

If snow can’t manage to stay on the ground *while it’s actually falling*…then, yes, that should be considered when determining how much snow is recorded in the books. 

It’s just a rant from a frustrated weenie  - not a big deal. Just ******* tired of dreadful winters over and over again. I grew up in the 70s and 80s - that is what I’m used to. 

45 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

3.5" is the biggest calendar day snow at ORD since 2/2/22

This seems inflated, a result of IMO poor standard operating procedure for snowfall measurements. Should be every 12 hours, not 6. If snow depth is down to 2” within basically 12 hours of an event starting, how can a reasonable person say that 3.5” actually fell?
 

If the snow compacts/melts 24 hours after the event ends, that’s another thing. But during the event…it just doesn’t pass the reasonability test.

Again, I’m not questioning the measurer - just the SOP. 

When one looks at the historical records after today’s snowfall, it will only look like a slightly below normal snowfall month through 1/25. But that’s ridiculous, because it has hardly snowed in January and has been extremely mild. The worst January ever, but it won’t look that bad in the historical records. When situations like that can be allowed to happen, it should cause the experts to revisit the measuring methodology. 

Some serious cold in Canada on the 18z GFS around Day 8.  It's impressive enough to see -40 temps, but there's a decent area of -45 to -50 showing up...with even one pixel in NE Alberta at -55.

Of course this is far out and 2m temps aren't exactly modeled well in general...but you don't see a map like this very often.  The extremely rare 468 thickness contour shows up, and it covers a fairly respectable area.  Even 474 is extremely impressive.  Hopefully we'll get to track a real-deal arctic outbreak soon...but of course the question is whether this arctic air will drop south.  At a minimum, seems like a nice temp gradient will set up.  If a big storm results, it should be able to pull the cold air down.

1 hour ago, Jed33 said:

I can attest firsthand that Montana and Wyoming are getting hammered this winter. We just got back from skiing out there. Everywhere we went from Bozeman to W Yellowstone, there was snow on the ground. In W Yellowstone, there was at least 5ft. With drifts even higher than that! It was cold by our standards (highs in the teens and 20’s and single digits and subzero for lows) but for high elevation out there, that is warm. The thing is, at W Yellowstone, the low temp on the car registered -14F, and that was just a random winter morning. However, that’s the coldest temp without windchill I’ve ever experienced! Previously I’d seen -10F, but that was many years ago. I wish I could have stayed even longer, we had 7in of snow during the last week while we were there. They were saying it’s the best winter they’ve had in quite some time. You know when people from Montana are saying they’re having a good snowy winter, then it must be good! 

I was in West Yellowstone in early June, 5 years ago. It’s so beautiful there. Even with the long days during that time of year, it was around 30 in the morning and 60s in the afternoon. They have great radiational cooling conditions. All-time record low is -66. 

3 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Next...

It's difficult to have any hope given how ***************** this winter has been...but I think there's a small glimmer on the map above.  Yes, the mean SLP is too far SE for here...but it's a 1008 mb mean.  Many of the stronger solutions have SLPs in the mid 990s...which in theory would pull it further NW if it ends up being a stronger storm. 

2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

beavis, is that you?


.

Glad to have someone else on board the train.