beavis1729

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Climate report has 97.

Airmass aloft is a bit warmer tomorrow.  Could be at least 98-99 there lol.

I could be wrong, but this doesn't seem realistic for RFD.  There wasn't a ton of wind/mixing that would support such a high temp, given the background airmass.  Seems to be a sensor issue or unusual UHI impacts??  When I say "sensor issue", it could be the sensor itself malfunctioning, or that the sensor is located in a spot which leads to a higher temp when the surface is parched (which shouldn't happen, as it's a hyper-local impact which isn't representative of the area).

I know it has been dry there...but it has been just as dry IMBY, and only hit 90 today (which was an overperformer itself). 

Strange...

51 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Looks like MSP’s low this morning was 78. If they don’t get below that by midnight (could be close), that would be the earliest they’ve ever recorded a low of 78 or above (6/7/11, which itself broke the previous record by over two weeks). It’s certainly not good, but the silver lining is it’s possibly better for public awareness if major population centers are setting these absurd records as opposed to places like International Falls or Bismarck that could be considered BFE to many people.

The UHI at MSP is ridiculous. At first I thought it mostly occurred in the winter due to more lower albedo, less radiational cooling over snow cover, etc. But it’s just as bad in the summer.
 

St. Cloud, a bit north of MSP and much more rural, had a low of 70. 
 

It’s reasonable if UHI adds 2-3 degrees, but not 8. It’s a major problem that needs to be addressed by all of us, led by urban planners and engineers. 

24 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

For those keeping score, the high was 106 in Bismarck and 102 in Fargo.

And INL hit 98, their first 90+ temp in June since 2005 and a new daily record high (old record 92 in 1988). All-time high is 103, June monthly high is 101. Records since 1897.

Grand Forks had an overnight low of 58, already up to 90 at 10 am.

^ Is that map relative to the new 1991-2020 normals? 

Would be interesting to see the same map, but vs. the 1961-1990 normals instead.  In some areas, 1991-2020 is 2-4F higher than 1961-1990, due to a combination of background warming and UHI.  I think the purples would become greens, and the greens would become yellows (in most areas).

5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Northern areas over-performing guidance by several degrees.

89 here, PWK, RFD and ENW currently, and 90 at JVL.


.

And JVL had a low of 50 this morning...nice 40-degree diurnal range with the dry air.  Current dew is 37, RH 16%. 

Didn’t get as cold as the airmass could have enabled overnight, as the clouds held on for quite awhile. FEP, being very rural and having a longer period of clear skies, dropped to 33. DKB hit 35, and 39 here. Most of N IL was 37-41.

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Did Beavis just complain about cold?  Heavens to Betsy.

Ha...mostly just the drizzle and wind combined with the temps.  Partly cloudy and 45 would be great.

1 hour ago, WestMichigan said:

That is Beavis weather right there

Although I have to admit that 45F and drizzle at peak heating on May 28th isn’t so good. Seasons in seasons...

Wow...18F on May 28th. 

Coldest low temps in MN this morning:

Hibbing 21

Ely 23

Orr 23

Bemidji 24

INL 24 - new daily record (old record 27 in 1947)

55 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Frost advisory tonight with a point forecast low of 36.  Kind of insane for May 29th.

Snowing in Marshfield WI atm.

And Marshfield isn't even in far northern WI; it's 44.67N.  Light snow (1.75 mile vis), and 33/30 at 6 am.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
702 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Saturday
Issued at 405 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

Scattered light rain across central and east central Wisconsin
will end this morning as the upper low exits the southern part of
the state. A little snow may mix in across central Wisconsin.
Clearing skies are expected during the day as drier air advects in
from the 1030 mb surface high centered over Lake Superior. Highs
today will be much warmer than yesterday, but still about 15 to 20
degrees below normal for this time of the year.

The computer models forecast the surface high to move into Wisconsin
tonight, as a sharp upper ridge approaches from Minnesota. Clear
skies, diminishing winds and very dry air are all favorable for
temperatures to fall quickly tonight. In fact the precipitable
water values forecast for tonight are near the all time lows for
late May in the last 70 years of record keeping. Lows in the 20s
are a good bet west of an Iron Mountain to Wausau line. Further
east it will be in the low to mid 30s. Areas near the lake and bay
may escape a frost or freeze but the remainder of the area looks
likely to receive one. Record low temperatures are likely in a few
places.

This is probably close to the coldest temps on record for so late in the season.  The point forecast for INL is calling for an overnight low of 21.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Duluth MN
322 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-280830-
/O.CON.KDLH.FZ.W.0001.210528T0300Z-210528T1400Z/
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook and Lake-North Itasca-
Central St. Louis-Southern Lake-Southern Cook-North Cass-
South Itasca-South Cass-Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-
Carlton and South St. Louis-Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-
Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
Including the cities of International Falls, Ely, Isabella,
Bigfork, Hibbing, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Grand Marais, Walker,
Grand Rapids, Pine River, Brainerd, Hill City, Aitkin, Duluth,
Pine City, Hinckley, Superior, Washburn, Bayfield, Ashland,
Hurley, Grantsburg, Spooner, Hayward, and Phillips
322 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM CDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 20 expected.

* WHERE...Northern Cook and Lake, Koochiching, Southern Cook,
  North St. Louis, North Itasca and Central St. Louis Counties.
  This includes the Tribal Lands of the Grand Portage
  Reservation and the Bois Forte Band, Deer Creek, Lake
  Vermilion and, Nett Lake areas.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.

5 minutes ago, rclab said:

A persons legacy is measured by the thoughts of those he knew that are still here. This young mans legacy is magnificent. The tears from the sky, if they come by weeks end, will be welcomed and appropriate. As always ....

Well said. I only came across James’s posts as an occasional observer in the NE forum; this is so sad. My thoughts are with his family, friends, and all who knew him well on this board. And congratulations to James for publishing his novel. It speaks of dedication, passion, and courage...no matter what stands in your way. 

35 minutes ago, Brian D said:

Speaking of late snows, I just came across this from Grand Portage, MN. It's in the NE corner of NE MN just south of the Canadian border. July 3rd-12th

9.0" 7/3/1897

8.9"  7/4/1897

5.8" 7/5/1897

2.1" 7/6/1897

2.2" 7/7/1897

12.1" 7/8/1897

6.5" 7/9/1897

0.1" 7/10/1897

1.5" 7/11/1897

0.2" 7/12/1897

That's insane! LOL!!

 

I think this is an urban legend.  Besides how insane that would be (just seems to defy any logic)...I can't find any evidence of this occurring.  Not that wikipedia is gospel, but the page below shows that MN's latest measurable snow is June 4th (1935)...and earliest measurable is September 14th (1964).  No measurable snow has ever occurred in July & August.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Minnesota_weather_records

Plus, this page indicates the all-time record low for Grand Portage in July is 38F:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Portage,_Minnesota

A dry cold front passed through Las Vegas yesterday, with some incredibly dry air...and cold temps for the time of year. 

At 3 PM yesterday, it was 85/-19, RH 1%.   I've never seen an RH of 1% before, or even 2-3%.

It may only hit the low 70s today, and drop into the low 50s tonight.  Normals are 91/68.

Some low temps in IL this morning:

DPA 30

ARR 30

JOT 32

FEP 32

Here 32...latest freeze imby since 5/18/2002 (31)

DKB 33

IKK 34

SPI 34 (!)

RFD 35

ORD 37

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, looks like widespread frost.  Unlike last time when I was (correctly) bullish on getting below freezing imby, I don't think it happens this time.  Radiational cooling setup is pretty good but the airmass aloft is a bit warmer than last time, so it should mean temps stay at least a degree or two above freezing locally.  Would not be surprised to see the typical coldest spots dip below freezing though.

Actually dropped to 30 here this morning, one of the colder spots in IL as we avoided the clouds. ORD and RFD were in the mid 30s, and even the typical cold spots were 32-34 due to lingering cloud cover. 

Agree about tonight...thinking 33-35 here, maybe 30-32 in the cold spots. Still pretty chilly for May 12th.
 

Was looking through Chicago wx records, and came across a strange stat:  the 1993-94 winter season is the only one in Chicago history with zero measurable snow March 1st or later. A few years had no measurable snow in March, but then there was some in April...but not so in 1993-94. 

This is an unexpected stat mainly because the 1993-94 winter was decent around here, with the arctic outbreak in January and then two good snowstorms in late Feb.  I guess everything shut off completely after that.

And, apparently Chicago had a trace of snow (not hail) on 5/25/1924...even as no temp records (low or low max) were set that day.  Record low for May 25th is 32 in 1992 (latest freeze in Chicago history); record low max is 44 set in 1893.  

32 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Had a low of 30 here, with 29 a bit to my west at IGQ.  Big gradient in low temps between here and GYY, the latter of which being so close to the lake and maintaining light onshore flow through the night.

FEP dropped to 27, DKB 31, JOT 33, RFD 34.  It's maddening that even RFD has noticeable UHI now.  

Low of 34 here in what I'd call the "moderate UHI" area of SW Lake County IL.

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Have a shot to achieve the unusual low in the 30s to high of 80 today, but it will take a lot of warming the rest of the day to pull it off.  High temp looks to occur later than usual in the afternoon and could have about 5 more hours of warming.

Yep...high/low of 85/38 here today. 

25 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Hey beavis, any thoughts on this summer-like warmth in April?  

Ugh...too early in the season. 

Should take a trip to MKE airport...49 there, 86 here.

14 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I really think the "frankencorn"/farming practices/land use is stacking the deck against the extreme summer maxes in the Midwest.  It's not always going to work (see 2012 for example) and there may come a day when other signals take over, but it helps to get drought conditions kicking in by late spring and get that to feed back and take out some of the crops to reduce the amount of evapotranspiration.

Warming maxes in the Midwest in winter would get my antenna up as far as cutting into snowfall as you can only afford so much warming in that category.  At the end of the day, the warming mins are interesting to note and to be able to pick out the UHI influence in some areas.  But for me that almost falls into the "who cares" category, particularly for winter months when warmer mins are probably welcomed by most people outside of low temperature nerds.  

When I said "shocking" upthread, it wasn't so much related to expected future snowfall or any IMBY weenie view about winter fading away.  It's from a climate/environmental perspective.  People can debate how much of the change is being driven by UHI vs. background warming...but either way it's very bad when January mins increase 5F over 30 years.  What will it be like in the next 50-100 years? 

Take your pick - either humans are significantly altering climo in specific locations significantly via development and parking lots and dark surfaces and buildings (and it's only getting worse)...or there is background warming happening very quickly.  It also doesn't really matter if the general public appreciates warmer mins in January.  Perhaps they would...but it doesn't fix the concern.    

Thanks RC...I guess it’s good to know that RFD’s numbers are much less dramatic, and therefore nearly all of the increase is driven by UHI...although perhaps warmer lake temps could come into play too.

But even a 0.3F increase in the annual mean temperature at RFD is noteworthy over such a short period of time. It’s a slow and steady bleed.

Another piece of data, if I have my numbers right: ORD’s average low during mid January was 13F (1961-1990 normals), and is now 18F (1991-2020 normals). So, an increase of 5F over 30 years. Just speechless...

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

In the new 1991-2020 normals coming out, ORD warmest min in July went up 3 degrees, warmest max stayed the same, and coldest min in January went up 2 degrees, coldest max stayed the same.

Meanwhile at RFD coldest min in Jan went up 1 degree, coldest max stayed the same and in July the warmest min went up 1 degree and the warmest max went down 1 degree.

Very obvious increased UHI signal there for ORD.

Normal seasonal snowfall at ORD went up 2.1" to 38.4", only 0.4" at RFD to 37.1". Normal annual precip went up about 1" at both sites.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Wow.  Unfortunately, your post is probably the most shocking in this forum's history, but will get overlooked by many.  Probably deserves its own thread.  Chicago is becoming St. Louis at night.  This should also be a huge news story for the general public.

Does anyone know the increase in average annual temp at ORD, after switching to the 1991-2020 normals?