beavis1729

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
159 AM AKDT SAT APR 10 2021

...RECORD LOW MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SET AT FAIRBANKS
YESTERDAY...

FAIRBANKS RECORDED A LOW TEMPERATURE OF -27 DEGREES YESTERDAY.
THIS SHATTERS THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD OF -16 DEGREES SET IN
1911.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY WAS ONLY 3 DEGREES. THAT BREAKS
THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD FOR COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 11
DEGREES SET IN 1911. YESTERDAY WAS ALSO THE LATEST IN THE SEASON
FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR FAIRBANKS ON
RECORD. THE PREVIOUS LATEST WAS APRIL 7TH IN 1966.

Bettles reported a 6am AKDT temperature of -38F (-38.9C). This is a new record for Bettles for the month of April. Previous record was -37F (-38.3C) set April 7, 1986. Climate observations at Bettles since May 1944.

As expected, the Fairbanks 12Z upper air sounding showed the coldest April low-level airmass on record (since 1948): lowest 1000-500mb thickness 4857gpm; lowest 1000-850mb thickness 1174gpm; lowest 925mb temp -26.7C.

Nome airport low temp Friday morning of (at least) -20F (-28.9C) is not a daily record (-24F, -31.1C in 1924) but this is the latest in the spring with a temp of -20F or lower in 44 years: -21F on April 12, 1977.

http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2021/04/arctic-blast.html

An already impressive winter in interior Alaska is going out with a bang, with snow and cold.  2-day snowfall of 13.2" on April 3-4 in Fairbanks, which brought the snow depth to 40".  This is the highest snow depth since 1993.  Snow depth on 4/7/2021 was still 38", 2nd highest so late in the season (only 1991 was greater).  Could be a bad year for flooding and river ice break-up.

Fairbanks just set a new record for consecutive days under 40F:

(1) 179 days:  10/11/2020 to 4/7/2021 - still active

(2) 176 days:  10/3/1965 to 3/27/1966

(3) 171 days:  10/8/1994 to 3/27/1995 

With clear skies and fresh snow cover, Fairbanks dropped to -24 on 4/6/2021, which is the 3rd coldest temp on record so late in the season (-24 on 4/7/1986 and -32 on 4/10/1911).  It was even colder at some other sites:  -36 at Jim River DOT (Mile 138 Dalton Highway); -34 Norutak Lake RAWS; -33 Bettles.

There is an even colder airmass lurking for this upcoming weekend, where Fairbanks could hit -25 or -30.  Normal temps for this weekend are 40/16.  Per Rick Thoman:  "By several measures, the Utqiaġvik 00Z Thu RAOB records the coldest April low-level airmass on record (since 1948). Lowest 850mb temp -35.5C; lowest 1000-850mb thickness 1138 gpm; lowest 1000-500mb thickness 4803 gpm."

http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2021/04/even-colder-on-way.html

http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2021/04/extreme-cold-approaches.html

An already impressive winter in interior Alaska is going out with a bang, with snow and cold.  2-day snowfall of 13.2" on April 3-4 in Fairbanks, which brought the snow depth to 40".  This is the highest snow depth since 1993.  Snow depth on 4/7/2021 was still 38", 2nd highest so late in the season (only 1991 was greater).  Could be a bad year for flooding and river ice break-up.

Fairbanks just set a new record for consecutive days under 40F:

(1) 179 days:  10/11/2020 to 4/7/2021 - still active

(2) 176 days:  10/3/1965 to 3/27/1966

(3) 171 days:  10/8/1994 to 3/27/1995 

With clear skies and fresh snow cover, Fairbanks dropped to -24 on 4/6/2021, which is the 3rd coldest temp on record so late in the season (-24 on 4/7/1986 and -32 on 4/10/1911).  It was even colder at some other sites:  -36 at Jim River DOT (Mile 138 Dalton Highway); -34 Norutak Lake RAWS; -33 Bettles.

There is an even colder airmass lurking for this upcoming weekend, where Fairbanks could hit -25 or -30.  Normal temps for this weekend are 40/16.  Per Rick Thoman:  "By several measures, the Utqiaġvik 00Z Thu RAOB records the coldest April low-level airmass on record (since 1948). Lowest 850mb temp -35.5C; lowest 1000-850mb thickness 1138 gpm; lowest 1000-500mb thickness 4803 gpm."

http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2021/04/even-colder-on-way.html

http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2021/04/extreme-cold-approaches.html

RFD hit 21 this morning, DKB 19, ARR 16.  22 here. 

Pretty impressive for April 2nd, especially considering there's no snow cover upstream in the Upper Midwest.

20 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

I'm sorry but what is there to complain about? 75% of the subforum just had one of the coldest and snowiest three weeks in February in a long time. I mean most areas had over a foot of snow OTG at least once in that period. That is a mark rarely seen around here. Yes no one except for the Chicago Lakeshore got a true big dog, although I'd argue the Feb 1st storm around Chiacago was one, but it was still an insane stretch of winter that we having been dreaming about for years.I get it that December and the first half of January sucked, but it shouldn't outweight that stretch at all. And you know what it does suck a bit to have all of that snow just dissapear like this, but I would rather have all of this melt like this instead of it sticking around for two weeks to get rained upon. Plus it is March 1st tomorrow. That means meteorologically, spring is officially here. This is right on time (for once). Heck even with the last week of warmer temperatures this month will still go down as one of the coldest february's ever. I just don't get what there is to complain about at all.

First, a disclaimer:  Not everyone needs to agree with me.  I fully understand that.  But, please...just let people vent.  Yes, this is very emotional for me.  It may not be for others, and that's fine.

To your question...it's the lack of sustained cold, and the lack of consistency.  Winter is supposed to be a season, not a 3-5 week period.  During the holidays and the shortest daylight of the year, we had essentially zero winter.  I'm talking Thanksgiving through Jan. 10 or so.  For example - from 12/1 to 12/28 at ORD, there was no measurable snow, and even at night the temp rarely dropped below 20.  So, that's essentially 28 days in a row without winter, when the days are the shortest.    It's fine if it's not 100% wintry during that period...but we had nearly 0%.  That's a big deal. 

I've said many times that total snowfall is not our issue here.  It's temps.  Being at 42N and needing everything to go right is very stressful and draining.  It's not fun having to wake up every day and hope for everything to go right in order for winter to exist.  It should just "be".  It's just not good.  The most frustrating thing is that, even in the depth of winter, our normal high is 30.  So, half the days are 30 or warmer, assuming a normal distribution.  When you go outside in winter, it should feel really cold.  Not just "chilly", but cold.  We get occasional cold outbreaks here, but not sustained cold.  Like a high of 20 and a low of 0.  Not crazy Fairbanks or Barrow cold...just typical winter cold...where you need and want to wear a hat and gloves to be outside.

No one, including me, is denying that we had solid winter for 5 weeks...including a very good 3-week period.  But winter is 13 weeks, not 5.  The same thing happened in Jan 2019.  We had a good 2-3 week period, including a great arctic outbreak...but then 2 days later it's back in the 40s...in early Feb.  And, after GHD I in Feb 2011, we had a 22" snow depth which completely melted within 2 weeks.  That shouldn't happen; it's maddening.  Typical days in Jan should be 15-20 in the afternoon, with lows 0-5...and typical days in Dec & Feb should be in the 20s, with lows 10-15.  Nothing crazy...just "regular" cold that can be counted on.  Winter is supposed to be cold.  Maybe you get a few mild days in the 30s, with an occasional 40...but there are just too many days with highs of 35+ in DJF.  There should not be puddles and liquid outside during winter.

Here is the ideal winter pattern.  No, it doesn't need to be Barrow or Fairbanks (and I have never said that)...but simply seasons in seasons.

Nov 20 - 30:  highs in 30s, ground starts to freeze...laying the groundwork for met winter to begin

Dec 1 - 10:  5-10" of snowfall, most days in the 20s or colder, occasional day in the 30s

Dec 11 - 20:  5-10" of snowfall, ponds & lakes start to freeze...most days in the 20s, very rarely gets above freezing

Dec 21 - Jan 31:  10-15" of snowfall, looks like a winter wonderland...even if some years are wintrier than others.  Must have a White Christmas - no compromise.

Feb 1 - 15:  5-10" of snowfall, snow depth getting close to peak, everything still frozen.  Temps warming a bit...but most days still in the 20s.

Feb 16 - 28:  5" of snowfall, *gradual* melting...most days 25-35, but still no days 40+.  Ponds and lakes slowly come out of hibernation, but still frozen.

March 1 - 15:  5" of of snowfall, melting going pretty strong by Mar 15.  Ponds and lakes finally thaw around Mar 15.  All snow gone by Mar 21, the first day of astronomical spring.

Then full-out spring can begin after that... 

21 hours ago, kevlon62 said:

I hear ya Beav.

Even the UP is clinging. We are planning to head up Wednesday for one last hurrah.

From this morning's Alger County/Munising trail report, " . . . it almost feels like season end conditions a few weeks early."

https://www.algersorva.com/snowmobile-trail-report/

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

Yep...hope you have a good time.  Several weeks ago, we planned a trip for mid-March in northern WI, to enjoy some relaxation and dog sledding.  Will probably get cancelled due to the current below-normal snow cover and expected mild temps coming up over the next 7-10 days.  

Ugh...the whiplash of winter to non-winter is so hard to take.  If it happens in late March, ok...but it shouldn't happen during DJF.  But every year, it does...it's just a matter of when.  It's like people are ok with 3 weeks of good winter, and then no more. 

Wish we could have gradual transitions and more consistent winter, instead of "all or nothing".

We got about 25" of snow in 3 weeks, with an average temp of around 10F...then the next 3 weeks will see 0" of snow with an average temp around 35F.  It's like a switch flips, even though it's still Feb.  Why can't there be a gradual transition...like maybe we get 10-15" instead of 25" in the next 3 weeks...and an average temp around 20F instead of 10F??

This is why our winter climo is so frustrating.  We have 3 weeks of good winter...but DJF is a 13-week period.  We work so hard to get wintry weather for a decent period...the lakes and ponds froze pretty well...then when winter finally sets in completely, it just vaporizes.  This doesn't happen in the summer.  In JJA, it's either "mostly summer" or "total summer" on any given day.  But in winter, it often ranges from "no winter" to "good winter"...and it just switches on a dime.  There is no room for error, or gadual transitions; any "above average temp" period melts snow and stops lakes from freezing, even during the heart of winter.  It just sucks.  So frustrated that there's no consistency.  We've lost nearly 18" of dense snow in 7 days...winter just disappeared.  I know it's late in the winter...but it's still Feb...and these episodes keep reinforcing our bad climo, which I can't bring myself to accept.  It's not really winter when the normal high in early Dec and late Feb is around 40F.

It's so emotionally draining.  It's always something.  It's like we have 6 weeks of "core winter"...but you can't even count on that, as evidenced by the 50s/60s that occurred in each of the past two Decembers, near Christmas...when daylight is the shortest. Before Dec 15th, the lake is too warm, and the source region hasn't cooled off enough.  Then, after Feb 1st, the source region is colder...but then you have to hope for clouds if the temp is > 25F so that snow doesn't melt, because the sun angle is getting higher.  And you need the nights to be clear, to get radiational cooling and preserve the snow...and have a lower start to the warm-up during the following day.  My point is that it shouldn't need to be this difficult.  If we actually had winter from Dec 1 - Jan 10, it would have been easier to take what has happened over the past week.  We basically had 5 weeks of winter this season...with the last 3 weeks being really good.  Because there have only been 5 weeks of winter, I want winter to continue into March, to make up for the lack of winter in December.  I value duration over intensity...13 weeks of each season, not 5.  Summer is good when the calendar says it, Fall is good when the calendar says it...but let's have seasons in seasons.  Temps above freezing in the daytime is not winter. 

Great post, ChicagoWx.  Crazy to see that ORD and RFD both have more snow on the ground than INL...and that ORD has had 12.5" more snow than RFD so far.

Bismarck ND has only had 13.7" of snow for the season.  Even less than that, in parts of ND north and west of there...but I can't find any climo sites in that area with snowfall data.  Williston ND has probably had less than 10"...hard to believe.

The frustration I've always had with our climo isn't so much average snowfall...although of course 50" would be nice instead of 40".  It's the lack of consistency, due to the fact that our average temps are just too warm.  Even in January (assuming a normal distribution), half of our days are in the 30s or warmer.  But even I must admit that western ND would be much much worse.  Average DJF temps are definitely colder than here, but there are so many ups and downs due to the chinook.  That would drive me crazy.  And, there's just too little snowfall there.  I've been to Theodore Roosevelt National Park, in that area...a great place in the warm season.

53 minutes ago, Snownado said:

How does Dallas, TX get to -2 but the coldest you can manage is -1 ?

Moderation from Lake Michigan.

18" snow depth here, 4th highest seasonal max on record IMBY.  Here's the Top 4, based on where I lived at the time:

(1) 24" on 12/26/2000, Glen Ellyn IL

(2) 22" on 2/5/2011, Carol Stream IL

(3) 21" on 2/4/2015, Lake Zurich IL

(4) 18" on 2/16/2021, Lake Zurich, IL

I imagine yesterday's 28" depth in Evanston (?) is the 3rd highest IL seasonal peak on record.  Antioch had a 38" depth in the 1978-79 winter, and I believe some places were around 30" in December 2000.

3 hours ago, Snownado said:

You didn't list Fayetteville, AR but they were at -20 this morning. Also, Jim Cantore said DFW was -2, not -1.

Thanks for the corrections...was going off hourly obs for the most part, so some places may have dropped a bit lower intra-hour.

Looks like the -20 in Fayetteville is a new all-time record (old record -18).

Nearly historic cold in NE, KS, OK, TX, AR, LA, MS, AL (EDITED 2/17/21 to correct some temps and add some commentary)

Lincoln NE -31 (49 degrees below normal, 2nd coldest temp since records began in 1887...-33 on 1/12/1974)

Sioux City IA -28

Concordia KS -22

Manhattan KS -20

Fayetteville AR -20

Wichita KS -16

Topeka KS -16

Oklahoma City OK -14 (coldest since 2/12/1899)

Tulsa OK -13 (close to all-time low of -17)

Amarillo TX -11

Wichita Falls TX -8

Tyler TX -6 (new all-time low)

Longview TX -5 (new all-time low)

Dallas TX -2

Shreveport, LA 1

Memphis, TN 1

Austin TX 8

San Antonio TX 9

Houston TX 13

Baton Rouge LA 20

Galveston TX 20

Mobile AL 20

McAllen TX 22

2 hours ago, WeatherMonger said:

Doesn't make sense to me, 5.8" on .56" QPF when it was 3 degrees or colder and snow depth is 3". 

 

Snow depth is as of 7am...so it was before the current storm started.

May need to double-check the #'s...but Dallas's high temp today (14) was colder than the old daily record low (15) set in 1909.  Normals are 60/39.

Even more impressive, OKC's high temp today was 4.  Old record low was 7 set in 1909.  Normals are 55/33.

This is incredible for stations with a POR > 100 years.

Interesting NE-SW temp gradient as the relatively warmer air (plus warmer lake) wraps around the storm. Near 12F in NE IL, but only 3F in STL. 

Some MN temps this morning:

INL -39 (dropped from -9 at 4PM, to -31 by 9PM)

Hibbing -38

Bemidji -37

1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Low of -18 again in the city. UHI flexed it’s muscles as New Richmond WI 40 miles east got down to -35

Wow. Dropped to -3 here with 1-2” of fluff overnight. 
 

This overall set-up is fairly typical of arctic outbreaks. At the beginning of the outbreak, it’s more advection driven...then towards the end the radiators win out. A -35 temp at 45N in mid February is extremely impressive. 

^ Wow, impressive cold in MN. The -50 could be close to the coldest MN temp on record so late in the season. And the -35 at Duluth is probably close to their all-time record, as they usually get some moderation from Lake Superior. 
 

Only hit -8 here this morning, even with a good radiational cooling set up. Cleared out right after sunset yesterday, 16” snow cover. We just don’t radiate well here, and it probably didn’t help to be on the far southern edge of the arctic air mass. This cold snap will be remembered for longevity here, not the extremes. Was hoping we could pull off a -15 or -20, but the coldest was -10 early on in the outbreak. 

INL hit -42 this morning. I think this is the coldest temp in the US from this outbreak so far. Could be challenged the next couple of nights in the radiator spots like Tower or Embarrass MN. 

1 hour ago, Snownado said:

So is that about the equivalent of them seeing a high of 108 ? 

Not necessarily; you’re assuming that OKC’s winter high temps are normally distributed...whereas the true distribution probably has some skew to it. Plus, there may be a “midnight high” which is what goes down in the record books, even if the afternoon high were only 2.

NWS is forecasting a high temp of 2 in OKC on Monday 2/15. Normal high is 55.

Even as the cold has moderated in recent days south of 45N, it continues to be brutally cold in ND and MN.  Langdon, ND dropped to -35 this morning.  Lowest wind chill was -60, at 4:55 AM (temp -33, W wind at 13 mph).  Looks like the WC has been -30 or colder at every single hourly ob over the past 7 days.

13 minutes ago, Baum said:

guessing 3" down here on coldest surfaces or existing snowcover. Lighter snows still falling. 

 

Congrats! Still not a flake all day here in SW Lake County. Hopefully that changes tonight.