beavis1729
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Posts posted by beavis1729
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17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
The month never looked that cold.
Many of us winter enthusiasts don't care whether December was forecasted a certain way. We just want December to be, you know, wintry...like it should be. The outcome is all that matters.
The lack of snowfall and snow cover east of the Mississippi up to this point in the season is shocking...and it looks to only get worse over the next couple of weeks. Looking at ensemble progs, it's even possible that there will be close to zero snow cover in the entire Lower 48 east of the Mississippi on the winter solstice...when it's supposed to be deep winter. It's unacceptable and frustrating beyond belief.
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It was 69F in Chicago on 12/29/1984...then 3 weeks later it dropped to -27 (all-time record low) on 1/20/1985.
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I shouldn't be surprised, I guess...but the entire lower 48 has been devoid of winter so far...and it looks to continue through the next 10-15 days. Usually, you'll see winter showing its hand over the Rockies, Plains, and Upper Midwest...but it's a complete shutout. Seems like everything is delayed by a month.
Meanwhile, Alaska is having a very cold November. King Salmon, AK will probably have its coldest November on record by about 4F.
http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2021/11/record-cold-november-in-places.html#comment-form
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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
I like the 1983-1984 analog.
Coldest Christmas on record for the Midwest.
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42 minutes ago, Brian D said:
Two Harbors coop station has this year at 5th (dense rank) warmest avg temp.
1963 55.8
1920 52.8
1931 52.0
1947 51.8
2021 51.7Duluth is tied for 6th warmest.
1963 55.9
1900 53.5
1947 52.3
1920 51.6
1931 50.9
1879 50.9
2021 50.7
1924 50.7Amazing that Duluth’s warmest *year* (albeit only Jan-Oct) on record is 2.4F warmer than any other year…especially with nearly 150 years of records.
It would be more typical for monthly records…but it’s a phenomenal statistical anomaly for a 10-month period.
I wonder what the monthly departures were in Jan-Oct 1963; I’m guessing JFM were crazy warm, as that’s where you can build up the + departures.
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25 minutes ago, madwx said:
11th warmest October on record for Madison. The cool nights the past week dropped us from a top 5.
Warmest October on record for Milwaukee
Wow for MKE…especially relative to Madison. Probably UHI and very warm lake water.
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There it is…lucky #13 ☘️
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On 10/11/2021 at 8:42 PM, IWXwx said:
Meh, yeah more fall-like weather compared to the blast furnace we've been experiencing, but I'm seeing no chance of frost in the next 10 days, which is the normal dates of the first frost in our area. In fact, I'm not even seeing any 30's in the current modeling.
ORD still hasn’t hit the 40s yet this season.
Will probably happen Saturday morning, but still…
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10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:
Made it to the mid 80s here. Definitely near top tier warmth for the 10th of October.
Yeah…and today’s min was 70 at ORD, the 2nd warmest daily min on record so late in the season.
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15 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:
It’s September in October this year.
Right. I don't need it to be very cold this time of year...but some actual fall-like highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s would be nice. ORD hasn't dropped below 50 for the entire season so far, and this should continue through mid-October. That's crazy...it just doesn't feel right. Very little color on trees so far...it's like Mother Nature still thinks it's September 15th.
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ORD is up to 99 days with a temp of 80+ so far in 2021. Very backloaded this year, as Aug-Oct has meaningfully more 80+ days (47) than June-July (40).
Normally ORD would be done with 80+ days by now, but the warm pattern over the next 10-15 days may lead to a few more. I don't think we'll break the record of 103 in 2005, but it could be close.
April - 3 days
May - 9 days
June - 21 days
July - 19 days
Aug - 29 days
Sep - 16 days
Oct - 2 days
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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:
Chicago was +3.9 for the month, which tied for the 5th warmest September on record.
Because our 30-year normals keep changing (increasing) so fast, departure #'s aren't very meaningful anymore. I prefer to focus on absolute temps. As you said, 5th warmest September on record (high 79.8, low 60.7).
My apologies for being on a soap box...but the normals in Chicago are really getting out of hand. Using the 1961-1990 period, the normal high/low on January 1st was 29/13 (mean 21F). Using 1991-2020, it's 33/21 (mean 27F). So, January 1st is, on average, 6F warmer than 30 years ago. It's really sad and unbelievable...
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ORD is up to 97 days with a temp of 80+ so far in 2021. Very backloaded this year, as Aug-Sep had meaningfully more 80+ days (45) than June-July (40).
If there is a warm spell in October, ORD could end up with around 100 days of 80+. That may crack the Top 10, as I believe the record for a year is around 105??
April - 3 days
May - 9 days
June - 21 days
July - 19 days
Aug - 29 days
Sep - 16 days (assumes the high temp will hit 80+ on 9/29 and 9/30, but not on 9/28)
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29 this morning in Hibbing, MN
Still hasn't dropped below 50 here during September so far...looks like it could happen tomorrow.
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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:
Some areas farther north (like you) are flirting with criteria, but it doesn't seem as widespread as farther south.
Yeah…I guess my beef is that the criteria are too strict. HI of 100+ should be an advisory, with a warning for 105+.
HIs of 100+ feel very uncomfortable and oppressive even during the peak of summer…and especially in late August when it’s a bit rarer.
I just use the “reasonability” test. If any day deserved heat headlines here, it’s today. Whether 103 or 106 or 107, it’s still oppressive. It’s a confusing message when part of the CWA is under an advisory and part isn’t…as it’s not a snow/no snow situation like winter, and there’s no lake breeze to make it much cooler in the northern counties.
Not a big deal, and of course I am not intending to criticize the NWS. Sometimes I just think simpler is better - heat headlines everywhere. Maybe I’m just getting older and can’t stand the humidity anymore.
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Seems like a mistake for LOT to not have a heat advisory (at minimum) over their entire CWA. Currently 95/74/106 here with no heat headlines. Just miserable outside.
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Yikes, the evapotranspiration from the corn fields doing its thing. 91/78/106 here.
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Yeah…86/79/100 here. So oppressive. I don’t know how people in south FL handle this 6 months out of the year. A few days is bad enough.
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83/80 at DKB…yuck.
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Wow...looks like Furnace Creek hit 130F this afternoon, even before the peak heat is expected tomorrow and Sunday. The temp sensor may need to be looked at closely, as it jumped 4F in one hour very late in the afternoon (between 4pm - 5pm local time). Kind of unusual, but I suppose it could happen. Winds went calm, which probably enhanced the heat in the deep valley (near 200' below sea level).
Dew is fairly high too, at 48. Heat index 121.
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Looks like today will end up with a 116/93 max/min in Las Vegas.
The low of 93 is tied for the 6th warmest daily min on record. All of these high min records have occurred in the last 20 years, driven by UHI. Prior to 2002, no daily min above 91 was ever recorded...and mins of 90-91 only occurred 3 times.
95 (7/1/2013; 7/19/2005)
94 (7/12/2020; 7/29/2016; 7/20/2005)
93 (today and 5 other days, all since 2005)
The daily average temp of 104.5 is tied for the 2nd highest daily mean temp since 1937. The only higher daily mean temp since 1937 was 7/19/2005 (106.0). That day was actually the hottest day in LV history based on daily average temp - 117/95 max/min.
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Note that Furnace Creek is where the official obs are taken for Death Valley. That’s not quite as low elevation as the point & click forecast above. NWS going with 129 on both Sat and Sun for Furnace Creek.
What’s interesting to me is there will be some humidity…so overnight mins could be extreme. I could see low temps around 105 over the weekend; could be all-time high mins?
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1 hour ago, Vegas1977 said:
Yeah you are correct in saying that the 1913 134F temp is still recognized but I have read a few in depth articles that really do cast serious doubt on those temps with the most compelling argument the fact that NONE of the surrounding stations recorded temps that day anywhere near what they should have if Death Valley was 134F. But anyway back to this event Sunday is still on track to break 130F with EC projecting 850hpa temps of 100F for Death Valley which can easily translate into 130F at the Furnace Creek station - I notice now that NWS is also forecasting 130F for Death Valley on Sunday as well...
Should be interesting to follow the temps later this week, and to see how high the daily mins will be too (the air isn't as dry as it is during May/June). It stayed above 100 overnight last night, and may do so for the next several nights...yikes.
Currently 122/46/115 at Furnace Creek.
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I thought the world record temp was 134.1F (56.7C) at Furnace Creek on 7/10/1913. This replaced the previous "record" of 136F in Aziziya, Libya on 9/13/1922, which was invalidated by the WMO in 2012.
I know the 134.1F temp is not believed by some, which is understandable...but the WMO currently lists it as the world record. The WMO was quoted as follows: "We accept this Death Valley temperature extreme record. Obviously, if any new materials on it surface, we will be prepared to open an investigation, but at this time all available evidence points to its legitimacy."
Anyway - the current NWS forecast for Death Valley (Furnace Creek) shows a max temp of 128 over the next 7 days. I agree they may be playing it a bit conservatively, as it's 5 days out. I think 129 is possible, not sure about 130+.
Wednesday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 125. South wind 6 to 10 mph.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 100. Southeast wind 5 to 11 mph.
Thursday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 125. South wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 99.
Friday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 125.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 100.
Saturday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 127.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 101.
Sunday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 128.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 102.
Monday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 127.
Winter 2021-22 Complaint/Banter Thread
in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Posted
Thread was started on September 13th; titled 2021-22 Winter Discussion. Hasn't been much of a reason to post in it lately.
On a separate note, the 12z Euro has H85 temps around 18C at ORD on Wed night 12/15. What in the fook is happening...those are warm 850mb temps even if it were mid-September.