beavis1729

Point for Langdon ND, in the far northeast part of the state.  Counting the past few days, it could be a 7-8 day streak with temps -10 or colder.

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Temps overachieved here.  Made it down to -19, colder than Sunday morning.

Wow, only -5 here. Looks like you cleared out right after sunset last night, perfect radiational cooling. 

Notable cold this morning:

Langdon, ND wind chill -57 at 6:35 AM (-29 with W wind 15 mph)

International Falls, MN wind chill -53 at 7 AM (-36 with SW wind 5 mph)

7 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Only made it to -2 for a high after the -17 low.  

Low of -10 here on Sunday morning, PM high of 2.  Dropped to -3 this morning.

1 hour ago, McHenrySnow said:

While I definitely prefer more snow than I will get this week, I'll still have a smile on my face since it will feel like winter. #stoptheantiwinterbiasofweatherreporting

Yes x 1,000,000 to the hashtag 

51 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

-3F at 7am. Only the 3rd below zero low of the season at MSP. (We average 11 in January alone) 

P&C has lowered my high to a balmy -1F for today. 

To make the top 10 longest below zero streak only 4 more days to go. 130 consecutive hours below zero is the tenth spot. 
 

https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/zero_and_below_streaks.html

Let's shoot for #1...1899 or bust.  Same time of year too.

Dropped to 1 this morning, coldest of the season.  We may hit -10 tonight. 

25 minutes ago, Snownado said:

I just dont see how it can even be that cold with what will be a Late October sun angle next week. Seems to go against science but what do i know ?

All things being equal, you're right that it's more difficult to get severe cold in mid-Feb...but in Chicago, record lows are still fairly cold (generally -10s) this time of year.  The airmass has been building up north for awhile, and sun angle up there is still weak with relatively short daylight.  Plus, there's extensive snow cover in the source region all the way down to here, which acts like a refrigerant.

This is a great blog on Alaska weather...here's an article about the extremely cold airmass in northern Alaska:

http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2021/02/frigid-in-north.html

7 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This is going to be a long duration brutal cold wave

^ Yeah, 18z GFS brings down the motherload.  Some crazy cold, including H85 temps around -30C in N IL on 2/13...but of course it's an op run at Day 9-10.  

Regardless, it still shows 11 consecutive days with sub-zero lows here, from Feb 6-16.  

And here come the headlines.  From NWS Grand Forks...wind chill watch in effect for 5 consecutive days. 

Wind Chill Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
244 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2021

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-072045-
/O.CON.KFGF.WC.A.0001.210206T0000Z-210209T1800Z/
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada,
Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster,
Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, Warren, Stephen, Argyle,
Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah,
Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh,
Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush,
Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake,
Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids,
Detroit Lakes, Wolf Lake, Breckenridge, Fergus Falls, Perham,
New York Mills, Parkers Prairie, Henning, Battle Lake, Wadena,
Menahga, Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, Barrett, Cando,
Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas,
Fort Totten, Maddock, Leeds, Minnewaukan, Devils Lake, Grafton,
Park River, New Rockford, Lakota, Mcville, Aneta, Tolna,
Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro,
Hatton, Portland, Valley City, Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner,
Milnor, Forman, Rutland, Wahpeton, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin
244 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2021

...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind chills as
  low as 45 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northwest and west
  central Minnesota and northeast and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

This map is probably overdone with the cold...but I think it's reasonable to expect some -10 to -15 temps in N IL on Sunday morning 2/7.  Chicago's record low is -10 set in 1875...could be threatened.  Rockford's record low is -16 set in 1972...that could be in jeopardy too. And some nice -52F temps in N Manitoba. 

30 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Decent number of rainers on the 18z GEFS member suite 

I know it's speculation, but you'd think the baroclinic zone would be pushed south...and perhaps strengthen even more (!)...given the expected snowfall over the next 2-3 days.

Days like today are where UHI drives me crazy. I’m not even in the core of Chicago metro...and the high/low today has been 37/10 under nearly full sun. But in RFD, it looks like the high/low will end up being 30/2.

I know UHI may not explain all of it...but it doesn’t seem like there was much difference in air mass or cloud cover for here vs. RFD. It’s obnoxious. So much non snow covered pavement around here to absorb more of the sunlight, compared to rural areas. Could also be that the south winds today had more snow covered ground to cover out west by RFD, vs. here...although there is a pretty deep snowpack down by IKK. 

8 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Thought it was for all types of weather.

Yeah...to clarify, it's a winter weather thread...so of course people who post in it want wintry weather.

7 minutes ago, Snownado said:

My high on Monday has been increased by a whopping 15 degrees ! Maybe just maybe the highs will keep trending warmer next week. I have no interest in high temps below 15. Do some of you people actually enjoy extreme cold ?

Yes...it's a winter weather forum, after all.

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

The immediate metro is the only area overachieving, which is pretty much the norm in these cases.

The rest of N IL has temps ranging from the mid 10’s to mid 20’s.


.

Right...but it's still annoying.  Is UHI/albedo causing this?

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

doesn’t meet beavis criteria.


.

Ha.  Now that there is extensive snow cover, I'd rather put all of our chips in on the cold.  But if the choices are "cold with snow" or "extreme cold with not as much snow"...can't go wrong wither way. 

Nice 1060 high in MT at Day 8-9 on the 12z GFS; the Euro showed something similar yesterday.  I'm sure there are maps showing this data...but I don't think the lower 48 has ever had a pressure this high in February in recorded history.  Fun times ahead...

1 hour ago, Snownado said:

Shouldn't you edit the dates to Feb 5-12 ? I think the arctic air arrives in some areas on the 5th ?

Sure, why not

I edited the title to change the dates to Feb 7-12, as there is growing consensus of a prolonged cold snap.  IMO, how extreme on any given day is still TBD. 

6z GFS still shows significant cold temps here...and that's even before the true cold drops down around Days 7-9.  Seems like more of a radiator set-up overall, where nights are extremely cold but it warms up (relatively speaking) during the day because the airmass itself is not brutal...though still colder than normal.  It's like the freezer keep regenerating, with all of the snow cover and consistent high pressure in a colder-than-normal airmass.  It shows 8 consecutive days of subzero low temps here, with some days not getting much above 0...not easy to do this time of year.  Really an amazing GFS run for prolonged arctic cold, verbatim...noting the usual op run caveats further out in time.

2 hours ago, madwx said:

12z Euro has this in 2 waves now.  The initial cold shot from Friday through Tuesday and then a reinforcement of cold air in the middle of next week

Yeah, 12z Euro is a "delayed but not denied" situation.  Usual caveats on a Day 10 op map...but you don't see this every day. 1058 mb high in MT, with temps 60F below normal. Not bad.   

Other models besides the GFS are getting on board...although of course it's still a ways out. 

12z GEM and UKMET are showing widespread -20s and even a few -30s in IA...with -20s poking into IL.  

Uncle Ukie needs a new scale...

2 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I'm a big fan of weather extremes, so I don't mind a few days of anomalous cold, but I just did a quick scroll through the GFS and I am no fan of the length of the arctic air hanging over the Lakes region. I mean come on, two solid weeks of the surface temps not getting over 20°? I really got depressed when I saw that the Euro is in agreement. And hard telling how long past the end of their runs?

This is going to be the type of weather that only Beavis can love.

The overall trend on the models (not necessarily each individual model) over the past 12-24 hours seems to be:

(1) Delay the core of the arctic outbreak a bit

(2) Initial shot of extreme cold focused a bit further north and west, even as the airmass/source region itself is still brutally cold

(3) Prolong the residence time of the cold air around here, even if not as extreme on a given day.

With that said, the various models are still not in agreement and are flipping a bit from run to run...possibly due to a potentially more organized storm system prior to the cold air dump.

12z GFS at hour 99 shows temps as low as -53 in NW Manitoba.  Here's 12z Sunday morning:

19 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The Sunday 2/7 daytime temperature map brings back memories of 1/30/2019.  I remember the GFS having lows in the -30s in Chicago, even at short lead times.  Obviously ended up being overdone, though did have -30 readings in northwest/north central IL.

Yep.  The source region for this airmass is modeled to be brutally cold on the GFS - see this wind chill map for hour 114.   At the very top of this image in far NW Manitoba (around 59N), the color is off the scale...but the point WCs are as low as -89F.  It just keeps getting colder up there on each subsequent GFS run.  Yesterday, the modeled WCs in that area were -75F to -80F.  I haven't seen this type of cold in Canada in a very long time...