beavis1729

Mixing out a bit here…currently 95/73/106.

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Plus by that point, that is another week with little/no rain if things go "right."   

Yep.  From MSP...interesting discussion. May be the official start of the Hoosier drought watch:

Friday through Monday... A rare and intense heat wave is appearing
likely Saturday through Monday. The late week trough will dive down
into New England and the western Atlantic while another deep trough
will reside over the West Coast, setting up an Omega pattern with
strong ridging centered along the Mississippi Valley. Model guidance
is unusually consistent at this range and thus forecast confidence is
rather high. 12Z ECMWF ensemble Extreme Forecast Index from Monday
suggests 90 percent of ensemble members exceed the 5-week centered
model climate MaxT values in parts of the Upper Midwest. In other
words, it`s already a near certainty 5 to 6 days out of near or
record breaking temperatures. Even more impressive, the Shift of
Tails (SOT) values of 1 to 2 suggest temperatures could be well above
records. It is hard to get a SOT greater than 1 for temperatures.

The NBM seems to be handling this event well already, even given the
potential rarity of it. Have made minimal or no changes to the NBM.
The heat dome begins to arrive Saturday when highs are expected to
reach well into the 90s across western MN. By Sunday, widespread
highs of 100 to 105 are forecast across MN, with 95 to 100 across WI.
Shockingly, the NBM 5th percentile is forecasting highs around 100
across west central MN. In other words, 95 percent of the guidance
that makes up the NBM is forecasting 100+ degrees. I cannot remember
a time I`ve seen such high confidence of record/near record
temperatures in this area on day 5.

11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

We'll see, but I wonder if early next week starts to bump hotter than it currently appears.  It has more of a westerly component in the low level flow than what we are seeing now and in the short term, and in general and without regard to any localized influences, those days with more of a westerly aspect have tended to perform well wrt big heat in previous years.

Agree…and the point for MSP is 100+ for Sunday and Monday. 

89/75/100 here, not a cloud in the sky

2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

DVN had a low of 80 this morning, and MLI had a heat index of 90 at 3am.  

Low of 79 at MLI - warmest min on record for so early in the season, by far.  Previous record was 79 on 6/27/1874 (!).

16 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

107 in Nebraska.


.

Make that 108…North Platte 108/36/101.

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Fairly widespread 80-82 degree dews in central/southern IL now helps the case for building extreme CAPE and trying to overcome capping later as this airmass advects farther north.  

Yep. The dew at ORD has already increased by 14 degrees over the past 4 hours (49 to 63)...with much more to come. And the dew at IKK is up to 75.

This airmass is crazy for the heart of summer, but especially mid-June.

Low this morning of 81 in Paducah KY, which ties the all-time June record warm min (81 on 6/23/2016).

Low this morning of 83 in St. Louis MO, which is an all-time Jume record warm min (82 on 6/25/1988).  And, it's already 86/78/98 at 8 AM.

I'm assuming these mins will hold through midnight...which should be no problem given the capping there.

36 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Miami average high for Jun 12:  89

Miami record high for Jun 12:  95

lol.  Obviously this is an extreme example as they are in the southern US and near the water, but still.

Key West is even more dramatic, especially in August when the water temps are at their warmest.  

Average high for Aug 12th:  91

Record high for Aug 12th:  95

33 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Miami average high for Jun 12:  89

Miami record high for Jun 12:  95

lol.  Obviously this is an extreme example as they are in the southern US and near the water, but still.

Yep.  Miami FL and Laredo TX are two of the more miserable places to live in the US from May-September.  For Laredo, it's normal highs 95-105, lows 70-80, and high humidity due to proximity to the Rio Grande river.  For Miami, it's normal highs 85-90, lows 75-80, and extremely high humidity. There's just no relief, day after day after day.

Despite the sauna-like atmosphere, I actually think Miami is a bit more tolerable than Laredo due to lower daytime temps and frequent rainfall to take some of the edge off. 

42 minutes ago, bowtie` said:

I do not find that surprising as Cotulla is only 5 degrees north of the Tropic of Cancer and this is the second week of June. The Sun is dang near straight overhead now at the median.

Yeah, I suppose...but, if so, that's a pretty scary climate to live in.

Either way, the 108 is a new daily record (107 in 2014)...and the normal high is "only" 98.  Records go back to 1901.

And now Kingsville TX has a heat index of 112 (99/75).

Texas is baking today, especially for being somewhat early in the season.  Highest temp I found so far is 108 at Cotulla, and highest heat index is 110 at Victoria (97/76). 

On 9/11/2021 at 7:34 PM, LibertyBell said:

Weird, how is 1980 not hotter than  any of these?  We had coast to coast heat that year.  And 1995 had similar.....

 

The fact that 1980 is lower than "expected" on the list of warm summers could be driven by overnight low temps, which have warmed much more than daytime highs in recent years...likely due to UHI and climate change.  Plus, I believe 1980 was dry overall...which could have led to cooler overnight lows (all else being equal).

39 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

78/36 at ORD for a nice 42 degree temp/dew spread.

Rockford 80/35, RH 19%.  Very rare to see RH < 20% in Illinois.

Waukegan dropped to 38 this morning, Rockford 39, and 41 here.

26 in Rhinelander WI; missed the record low by 1F.

9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Gravity waves from the deep convection down in MO and AR last evening.  Pretty cool.

Sioux City got down to at least 32 this morning.  

Low of 30.

1 hour ago, Brian D said:

If those temps hold for Sat, Chi-town looking at temps not seen in well over hundred years. Of course it depends on what the midnight reading will be for official high as that is for the afternoon map.

1883	42
1894	46
1892	47
1919	49
1897	50
1923	51
1917	52
1901	52
1889	52

It's always interesting to see lists like this in the Spring for Chicago...as the dates are always old.  This is because the official Chicago obs were right on the lake in the olden days.  The official site moved to O'Hare (ORD) in 1980.

Needless to say, it makes Chicago weather records a bit misleading and difficult to interpret.

It probably won't matter much in this case anyway, as there will be a midnight high around 60 at ORD.

8 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Denver hit 88 today, and winter storm warning tomorrow night for 8"+ snow.  

What's even more interesting is they have 85 in the point for next Thursday lol.  

Summer, snowstorm, and then summer again. 

If Denver gets more than 3.8", it will be their 3rd largest snowstorm on record for so late in the season.  They had 10.7" on May 25-26, 1950 and 5.6" on 5/29/1975...which are both insane. Latest measurable snow was 0.5" on 6/5/1953.

Possibly even more impressive - if the temp drops below 30 this weekend, it will be the coldest ever for so late in the season.  It was 30 on 6/2/1951, but has never been colder than 30 after May 19th.

Records go back 150 years, to 1872.

The 96 in Traverse City is insane.
 

The low of 74 yesterday morning in Rockford barely held on through 1AM …so a new all-time warmest min temp record for May was set. Old record 73 on 5/22/1905.

39 minutes ago, Baum said:

I get it. But still? Last time I saw anything fall on me from a clear sky a bird had shit on me.

Ha.  If the forecast said "clear" with isolated showers, I could see your point...but it said "mostly clear"...which leaves some wiggle room.

Just semantics, I guess. 

3 hours ago, Baum said:

one of my pet peeves:

SATURDAY NIGHT  
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE  
EVENING,

FRIDAY  
MOSTLY SUNNY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

can it shower from a clear sky? 

 

"Mostly" has a probability and/or coverage element to it. 

My interpretation of "mostly clear" is that it's expected to be clear 80-95% of the time at a particular location.  So, it could still be cloudy and/or rainy for the other 5-20% of the time.  As I understand it, that could mean either (1) a 5-20% chance of any clouds/rain occurring in the region, or (2) it will definitely be cloudy/rainy in the region, but with only 5-20% coverage.  

9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Barring something unforseen, Thursday's record high min for Chicago might get demolished.

Yep - ORD's low was 74 this morning...same as yesterday.  And today's low should hold through 1 AM tonight - although dews may come down a bit later, so it could be close. 

Old record high mins:

May 11th:  70, set in 1881

May 12th:  66, set in 1956

Not often you break a daily record by 8F, especially with a POR of 150 years.

And Rockford's high of 94 yesterday is the hottest day so early in the season in the past 88 years (it hit 96 on 5/9/1934).  Even more amazing - if Rockford's low temp this morning (74) holds, it will set a new May monthly record for the warmest min.  Current record is 73 on 5/22/1905.  In fact, there have only been 5 May days in Rockford's history with a daily min of 70+.  With all that said, I think there's a decent chance (1 in 4?) of dropping below 74 prior to 1 AM.   

39 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Gonna depend on how pronounced the lake cooling is at ORD.  That is going to give them a "head start" with cooling off later on.

Yep, good point. It’s 90/73/100 here, just before noon…unbelievable. 
 

Assuming it holds through midnight (which should be no problem), ORD and RFD both shattered their warmest min on record for so early in the season.

Low temps this morning, May 11th:

- ORD 74; previous earliest low temp this warm was 74 on 5/19/1911.

- RFD 72; previous earliest low temp this warm was 72 on 5/18/1996.

Meanwhile, it has been very cold out west.  West Yellowstone MT dropped to 7 yesterday morning, and Eureka CA (right on the coast) dropped to 37.  

8 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

89/74/99 imby right now. Torching. 

Yuck - incredible to see a dew of 74 on May 10th. 

88/70/95 here.