beavis1729

11 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

I was talking about the 21Z which is even better and obviously doesn't cover the main event. Plumes are terrible though at long range, so just watching how they trend.

Yep, just realized that - edited my post to summarize 21z. And I agree it’s more about the trends with SREF plumes, not so much the actual numbers. 

43 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

SREF plumes coming in hot for ORD

If I’m reading it right, the 21z plume mean is around 1.2” of liquid…and that’s only through 12z Thursday (hour 87). 

7 minutes ago, Brian D said:

I see the moniker given to past Ground Hogs day events that were quite significant as GHD I, II for the southern area of this sub forum. In what years did they happen?

2: Regardless of the waving tail effect of the model runs, this looks to be one of those events. I don't see any major back down of QPF in whatever form. So would you like me to change the title now to GHD III?

Hit the like button for 2

GHD 1 was 2011, GHD 2 was 2015.

1 hour ago, ILSNOW said:

12z GEFS

Interesting that the GEFS have a 6” mean all the way up to Kenosha. In this situation, though, the mean can be a bit deceptive. In other words, mean doesn’t equal “expected”. I’m guessing the vast majority of members show 0-2”, with a small # showing a wrapped up storm with 18”+…all leading to a mean of 6” in the end. 
 

Just now, Chicago WX said:

Let’s f*cking do this. 

Welcome back sir. 

You know I love my hyperbole, but this map is insane…February 1936 type stuff. Nice 1060 mb high dropping into the northern plains. Of course, all of the op GFS caveats apply. 
 

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

gfs came in hot, great look with wide open gulf with moisture pulled over sharp baroclinic zone

 

Yeah...12z GFS shows 59F in Nashville and -42F in Grand Forks at 12z on 2/3.

More for entertainment than anything else...but last night's 00z GFS showed some brutally cold air in southern Saskatchewan in early Feb.  That's a pretty sizeable area of temps in the -35 to -55 range. 

Obviously, the normal caveats apply since it's an op GFS run at 228 hours.  Only pointing it out because I've never seen temps this low on a GFS prog before. 

2 hours ago, Cary67 said:

-11F this morning. Kids still have school though. -31F in Wausau area near Merill WI

Yeah...Merrill itself (KRRL) hit -34.

Minocqua -23, Wausau -20.

29 minutes ago, Baum said:

beavis is rocking his tropical speedos today for sure.

Yes sir...it's about time. 

Some low temps in N IL...pending any intra-hour drops.  Coldest since 1/31/19.  Very impressive in the normal cold/radiator spots:

RPJ -23

ARR -20

RFD -16

FEP -16

DKB -14

SQI -13

Here -11

UGN -9

ORD -5

^ Yeah...as much as I truly respect LOT and our NWS forecasters, this winter's discussions from them seem to be hyper-focused on the tiniest of wintry weather threats...as if Chicagoland residents live in Atlanta and don't know how to handle winter.

"Oh noze, we *may* get up to 1-2" of snow over the next 7 days, and temps may be below freezing for part of this time...we must sound the alarms!!!".

More optimistically...it could just be that LOT is so bored with the wx here (and who can argue with that) - so, might as well elaborate on the most minor threats in AFDs because there's nothing else to talk about. 

I just got back from snowmobiling in northern WI this weekend - people there are legitimately pissed that the weather is so mild and tame...even though it was 20F with 8" of snow on the ground.  It's like two different planets.

40 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Detroit is near average snow to date, there's snow on the ground and it's cold.  What more can a winter lover ask for?

Might as well take the bait.

The short version:

There are three issues for winter lovers -

(1) Our average snowfall is pathetic to begin with

(2) Snowfall is not a good metric for winter lovers anyway; should use Snow Depth Days (SDDs)

(3) In Detroit's case...along with any other areas near here who actually saw some snow between Nov 15-Dec 15...it was all gone by Christmas anyway.  So, any snowfall before Christmas this year was just stat-padding, and not very meaningful. 

Once a snowpack begins after 12/1, it should stay.  It can fluctuate up and down a bit when bigger storms or modest thaws occur...but it shouldn't go away completely. That's why it's so important to get decent snowfall amounts early in the season...say 11/20 through 12/10.  Otherwise, you have to hope every single day remains in the 20s or colder in order to preserve what little is on the ground (even for me, that's a lot to ask for).

There is a huge irony in all of this - our winter climo would be improved dramatically by a small increase in average snowfall (say up to 50"), with DJF average temps about 5F colder.  Not asking for International Falls or the UP or Fairbanks, contrary to how many on this forum characterize things.

Very simple - seasons in seasons.  90 days of consistent summer (Jun 10 - Sep 10 in NE IL due to lake influence), matched by 90 days of consistent winter.  We have consistent summer every year, except maybe 1992 with Pinatubo; I don't wake up on August 10th or June 24th or July 8th and wonder if it will feel like summer that day.  It's something you can count on.

But we have only had consistent winter once (1978-79). Consistent winter means nearly all days (not necessarily 100%) during the 90-day period have high temps < 35F and at least 2" of snow cover. Again, nothing crazy. Many of you don't agree on this next point...but 2010-11 was infuriating to me because, as great as the GHD I storm was, the snow was all gone 2 weeks later.  If GHD I occurred on March 1st instead of Feb 1st, that would be fine...but 22" of snow that falls on Feb 1st should remain on the ground for the rest of Feb, at a minimum.  Even 12" should.  Not saying the depth has to remain at 22"...but you just can't have 22" of snow melt in 2 weeks during met winter.

For anyone who cares - I don't really enjoy participating on or viewing this sub-forum anymore...because everyone goes out of their way to make you feel guilty and defensive about loving winter. It really sucks.

You don't want to hear the long version.

12z GEM shows all-time record-breaking cold next weekend in the west. 

Verbatim at Day 7 (12z 1/2/22):

Las Vegas 12F

Phoenix 15F

San Francisco 24F

San Diego 32F

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Chicago's 1961-90 normals, which was the coldest 30 year period on record in chicago, are 2ﾟcolder than 1991-2020, at least using the raw data, not 4°.

 

Regardless, after a snowy Thanksgivimg weekend here December was trash. Here's hoping the long range models are right for a wintry January.

I am talking about DJF (and mainly J), not just December. Sorry for not clarifying. Either way, even 2F masks the true situation on that map…and 2F is still a huge change over 30 years. Yes, some is UHI…but it has happened either way. 
 

And it doesn’t matter that 1961-90 was the coldest 30-year period. That is what I grew up with, so it’s my minimum expectation. My ire isn’t directed at you - it’s just out of frustration. 
 

At ORD, January normal temp used to be around 21F, now it’s near 25F, give or take. When you’re on the wrong side of the Midwest winter gradient like we are, every degree matters to retain snowpack. 

^ As bad as that map is, it's actually understating the warmth...because DJF normal temps are so much higher now vs. 30 years ago. 

If you used 1961-1990 normals (which were 4F colder than 1991-2020 in Chicago, as an example), the map would look even more hideous.

Back to my "time out" - I got so anxious and frustrated about this pattern, I had to step away for awhile. Not good for mental health.

2 hours ago, tnweathernut said:

I’m not sure why anyone in the southeast/mid south would have winter concerns on Dec 21st?  I guess some people lean optimistic and some lean pessimistic, so to each their own.  Worrying about winter, before Christmas, isn’t even on my radar.

I don’t intend to speak for everyone…but I think part of it is the simple desire for “seasons in seasons”, and the fact that the shortest days plus the holidays are in December. You know - Currier and Ives snowfalls, It’s a Wonderful Life winter scenes, etc.

In JJA, you can always count on consistent summer-like weather. It would be nice to be able to count on consistent winter-like weather in DJF. Unfortunately, reality isn’t so kind. 
 

Of course everything is relative…but I live in far NE IL, and I get furious and anxious every year when we don’t start building a snowpack early in December, to take advantage of the low sun angle. I actually have to step away from my love of winter for awhile each year, because I get so worked up about it. 

We get good stretches of cold and snow each winter, but not consistent enough like 45N or north in the Midwest and Plains. As I like to say, we are on the wrong side of the extreme Midwest winter gradient.

To me, winter is about consistency - the beauty, like a mindset and a calm and peaceful way of life…not just single events/storms. 

I plan to move to the upper Midwest when I retire…hopefully soon. 
 

Hope you don’t mind my comments here…I definitely enjoy the good people and discussion in this sub-forum. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

That is wild.  With November being so cold, would have thought they would have recorded at least a trace.  Higher elevations here have recorded some.  

I believe “measurable” means 0.1” or more…so they may have recorded a trace already.
 

What’s even worse is that Chicago hasn’t had any measurable snow this season so far. 
 

I enjoy following everyone’s comments in this sub-forum…keep it up 

53 minutes ago, Toro99 said:

December 9th, and the "Winter 2021-22 Medium/Long Range Discussion" thread hasn't even been started. I wonder what the latest date for that bump is over the years. I'm a lurker so it won't be me....

Thread was started on September 13th; titled 2021-22 Winter Discussion.  Hasn't been much of a reason to post in it lately.

On a separate note, the 12z Euro has H85 temps around 18C at ORD on Wed night 12/15.  What in the fook is happening...those are warm 850mb temps even if it were mid-September.

17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The month never looked that cold.

Many of us winter enthusiasts don't care whether December was forecasted a certain way.  We just want December to be, you know, wintry...like it should be. The outcome is all that matters.

The lack of snowfall and snow cover east of the Mississippi up to this point in the season is shocking...and it looks to only get worse over the next couple of weeks.  Looking at ensemble progs, it's even possible that there will be close to zero snow cover in the entire Lower 48 east of the Mississippi on the winter solstice...when it's supposed to be deep winter.  It's unacceptable and frustrating beyond belief.

 It was 69F in Chicago on 12/29/1984...then 3 weeks later it dropped to -27 (all-time record low) on 1/20/1985. 

I shouldn't be surprised, I guess...but the entire lower 48 has been devoid of winter so far...and it looks to continue through the next 10-15 days. Usually, you'll see winter showing its hand over the Rockies, Plains, and Upper Midwest...but it's a complete shutout.  Seems like everything is delayed by a month.

Meanwhile, Alaska is having a very cold November.  King Salmon, AK will probably have its coldest November on record by about 4F.

http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2021/11/record-cold-november-in-places.html#comment-form

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like the 1983-1984 analog.

 Coldest Christmas on record for the Midwest. 

42 minutes ago, Brian D said:

Two Harbors coop station has this year at 5th (dense rank) warmest avg temp.

1963    55.8   
1920    52.8   
1931    52.0   
1947    51.8    
2021    51.7   

Duluth is tied for 6th warmest.

1963    55.9   
1900    53.5    
1947    52.3   
1920    51.6    
1931    50.9   
1879    50.9    
2021    50.7   
1924    50.7    

Amazing that Duluth’s warmest *year* (albeit only Jan-Oct) on record is 2.4F warmer than any other year…especially with nearly 150 years of records.
 

It would be more typical for monthly records…but it’s a phenomenal statistical anomaly for a 10-month period.

I wonder what the monthly departures were in Jan-Oct 1963; I’m guessing JFM were crazy warm, as that’s where you can build up the + departures. 

25 minutes ago, madwx said:

11th warmest October on record for Madison.  The cool nights the past week dropped us from a top 5.

 

Warmest October on record for Milwaukee

Wow for MKE…especially relative to Madison. Probably UHI and very warm lake water. 

There it is…lucky #13 ☘️