beavis1729

I think the official MI state record seasonal snowfall is 390” around Herman/Calumet, in one of the late 1970s winters. But I imagine some spot has hit 400”, even if no one was there to measure it. I could see Herman ultimately reaching 350-375” this season, but 390” is probably a stretch. Either way, crazy snowfall and depths, and it will probably hang on until mid-April (actual cover, not just piles) barring a major thaw.

Not sure about Marquette, but the highest totals I've seen in WI are 33.2" in Sturgeon Bay and 30.7" in Wausau. Edit: interesting comment on SLRs from NWS Marquette, at least as of 2:40am this morning...keeping in mind that 12-18" more was expected after that. .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 The focus of the forecast discussion remains on the ongoing record- breaking blizzard impacting the Upper Great Lakes through tonight. The prolonged nature of up to hurricane-force winds and quickly accumulating, blowing, and drifting snow continue to make travel conditions treacherous and potentially life-threatening as well. In addition to travel impacts, the winds have caused some power outages and as the winds increase, more are likely to result. Travel should be restricted to just emergencies today as even emergency vehicles will struggle to navigate the roads at times! Evening KMQT radar returns show a shield of reflectivity with some zones of 30-40 dBZ mixed in, indicating snow rates in excess of 1"/hr ongoing. Snow totals have been slightly under expected so far today at WFO MQT despite the QPF being on-target or even above- forecast. This is due to snow ratios being driven down to 6:1, which is at least a factor of 3 less than the NBM and a factor of two less than other traditional snow ratio forecasting techniques. A number of reasons partially explain it, between strong upper winds fracturing dendrites into a more compact shape, snow compaction upon being blown/drifted around, and a wetter snow than expected, though the sheer magnitude of how low the snow ratios fell is surprising. RAP analysis shows a negatively tilting trough centered over MN/IA supporting a surface low of 991mb over Valparaiso, IN. Stacked ridging over the West Coast is supporting a surface high of 1037 mb over Rapid City. The resulting pressure gradient over the UP is around 1003 mb along the Lake MI shores and around 1018mb by Isle Royale, a 15 mb gradient across Upper Michigan alone, helping drive the strong winds.

Yeah, Wausau seems to be the cutoff for true winters in WI. I go up there a few times each winter for snowmobiling and relaxation. The gateway to the northwoods, a beautiful area especially when you get into the forests north of town.

NWS Green Bay mentioned that Wausau has 19.2” as of 10am. That’s in roughly 12 hours, wow.

A mini jackpot for cyclone. Hopefully it works out for there, after a shockingly snow-free period since 12/8 (and after last season’s record low snowfall for MLI).

Possibly…but I guess my point is that it hasn’t really ever been consistently good, other than the glory days in the late 1970s and 1980s. Of course 2013-14 was good, but that’s only one season.

Of course you’re just the messenger, but there are so many ways to respond to this pathetic reality. I guess I’ll go with the simplest stat - total 2025-26 SDDs for ORD during DJF was 107 (60 of which were from the first 10 days of December), which means a mean daily snow depth of only 1.2”…and only a 0.6” mean depth for the last 80 days of met winter. And that’s supposedly our best winter season in several years. On top of that, ORD actually had one of the better snow totals in N IL, as areas N and W had materially lower snowfall. Plus, no white Christmas for anyone. And I didn’t shovel once after the early December storm. How does that happen? Are we supposed to be grateful for this? No - all it represents is an abominable commentary on our climo.

Looks like it could be a top 10 event for MSP. Just needs to exceed 16.0”. I’m surprised that MSP (POR 140 years) only has 3 storms of 18”+, and only 22 storms between 13-17”. That’s disappointing. On the latter, I would have expected at least twice as many, and probably even 3x as many (which would imply one such storm every other year). A 13” storm isn’t supposed to be a big deal for MSP, but apparently it is.

In my book, that’s a solid B…and it would be a B+ if the snow cover was 3”+ on a majority of those 99 days.

Yeah…outside of the lake effect areas, people don’t realize how bad of a winter this has been. Rockford has only had 6.9” of snow since 12/8, with a max 2” of snow cover…and bare ground during the entire month of February. I know many of us had two decent storms prior to 12/8, but all of that snow melted by 12/15 or even sooner. I don’t care what the total snowfall is compared to climo. It’s a horrible way to gauge the quality of a winter. It has been a horrible winter in northern IL and southern WI. I wish people would just acknowledge that. I just feel like people focus on total snowfall relative to average, not even realizing that our normals are pathetic to begin with, plus two seasons with the exact same snow totals could have completely different characters. It’s not only ok for people to have high standards, but it should be encouraged…just like anything in life. Having a white Christmas would have helped, and I thought it was a lock after having 10” on the ground on 12/5 and entering into the shortest days and lowest sun angle of the year. And a big dog with the current storm would have helped too, although it would melt quickly due to the time of year. But both of these failed by a wide margin. No white Christmas knocks the grade down by two letters all by itself. Plus the endless annoying dustings which would have been great if there were a good snowpack (but instead, you end up noticing the sublimation even when it managed to stay cold for awhile), and the new obnoxious problem in early December when the snow melted from below since it was so early in the season. It’s as though everything goes against snow retention around here. To me, snow retention is the most defining aspect of winter. The only thing good about this winter was the cold outbreak in mid-late January, especially because we thankfully maintained a bit of snow cover IMBY during the cold (but not on the roads or more congested areas, which is an entirely different issue). I know people grade winters differently. I like to communicate things by considering the extreme outcomes of a situation, because it adds context. This is what I mean - some people might argue that our area has 6 months of winter, since it can snow during November-April. That’s technically true, but to me that’s dumb. Just because it can snow during April, it doesn’t mean it’s a wintry month. That approach is a 1 on the “degree of difficulty/level of standards” scale for grading a winter, if you use a 1-10 scale. Some may say winter means an average high temp in the 30s or colder. To me, that’s way too generous, and it would get a 2 on the aforementioned scale. If every day were in the 30s or colder, that would be different. But average highs in the 30s aren’t wintry, because a significant number of days in the 40s and 50s can still occur, which is unacceptable. On the other extreme, someone else could argue that we don’t have any winter in this area at all, because there is no calendar period during which you can guarantee that it will look and feel like winter outside (meaning cold temps with meaningful snow cover). While late January has the best probability of this occurring, there are some years with warm temps and bare ground at that time of year. That approach would get a 10 on the aforementioned scale. Even I wouldn’t go that extreme, but my approach is probably an 8. This is because, in many (but not all) winters, you can count on 20-40 days (not necessarily consecutive) when it’s cold with meaningful snow cover (say 3”+ so there are no annoying bare spots). In other words, I would say we have about one month of winter. I may be a tough grader, but that’s how it should be when you care about something. An 8 out of 10, not a crazy outlier. I’m only pointing this out because, especially on a weather forum like this, it would be more fun and there would be better camaraderie if we all fell in the 7-10 range on this scale. But I think most of this forum falls into the 2-4 range on the scale…which I think is unfortunate. Just like your favorite sports team, I like having high standards for winter, whether or not it’s logical. Miami gets an F every winter, even with this year’s record cold (30s) for them. It doesn’t matter what a place’s climo is. I know that I anthromoporphize winter. But when a person cares about something and has a deep emotional connection to it, that’s what happens. I guess the alternative is to not get excited about anything at all, but what fun is that? I know this post is OT, but missing out on the current storm was the last straw, plus I’m not able to chase it due to other priorities. Anyway, I hope the good folks up north post a lot of pictures.

NWS Phoenix…crazy stuff. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY/... The area of high pressure suppressed and shoved westward by the transient disturbance will rebound and eventually migrate off the Eastern Pacific by Tuesday. As it moves, regional H5 heights will rise markedly, reaching near 588-590dm. However, global deterministic guidance takes things further showing heights aloft peaking near 594-596dm by Thursday. For reference, sounding climatology data for Las Vegas, Flagstaff, and Tucson all show record H5 heights for March are around 590dm and April 591dm, 593dm, and 592dm respectively. With that being said, this high will be near to slightly stronger than any ridge this region has seen in recorded history, not only for March, but for April as well. This anomalously strong high will translate to record temperatures, not just at the surface, but throughout much of the atmosphere as well. H7-H5 temperatures will reach all-time records for this time of year by Tuesday, with H8 readings joining the fray by Wednesday. These climatological records will not last one day either as forecasts show these abnormal values extending through the end of the work week and even into next weekend. At the surface, lower desert highs by Tuesday will be in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees with values climbing to around 105 degrees for much of the lower deserts by Thursday. If these temperatures are realized, those readings would be 25 to almost 30 degrees above normal. It should not come as much of a surprise that numerous records are likely to be broken at some point next week with Tuesday likely being the first day when all-time daily MaxTs begin to fall. However, with the lack of movement from the ridge overhead, consecutive days with new record temperatures appear likely. What is also very unusual about how hot this pattern will be is how much high temperatures could potentially best previous records. For instance, the current forecasted high temperature for Phoenix for Friday is 106 degrees. While it is typical to see records beaten by a few degrees at most, this forecast high may beat Fridays record of 96 by 10 degrees. Monthly records are also at risk of falling during this upcoming heat wave. The all-time March records for Phoenix, Yuma, and El Centro are 100, 102, and 101 degrees respectively. All of those values could be tied or eclipsed as early as Wednesday. The record setting potential doesn`t end there. The earliest 100 degree day recorded in Phoenix is March 26, which was observed back in 1988, and is actually the only other time since records began when triple digits were achieved in the month of March for the city. It appears that a new earliest instance of 100 degree will be set as it is a matter of when, not if, it will happen. Current forecasts suggest that will occur on Wednesday the 18th, 8 days ahead of the previous record.

Any thoughts on whether the snowfall in the Upper Midwest overnight and this morning could tighten up the baroclinic zone and help the cold push a bit further south than currently modeled? Or any type of impact of the new snow cover on the various moving pieces in general? I guess we'll see it in the 18z runs, if there's any truth to this. I know it's weenie rule #500, but why not.

Fair question - should have been clearer. I'm talking snow totals over the next 10-15 days, regardless of the individual storm threats. I saw some ensemble info in the TN sub-forum a few days ago, showing some big dogs for our area. Of course, that's good and bad...bad because the ensemble mean can be skewed by a couple of outliers. 6z GEFS from 3/7:

Does anyone have access to ensembles for the potential storm, either the individual members or the mean/median? The op runs are all over the place, even more so than usual.

Yeah, the game was on 1/10/82, temp -9F with 30 mph winds.