wx2fish
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Everything posted by wx2fish
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Yeah hrrr kinda hints at it, but still colder than the nam. The euro soundings I have are too course to really see if it has anything in that layer. I think south of MHT will struggle initially too until we get decent lift. Elevation will help for atleast the first couple hours.
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Nam is definitely the warmest, little warm nose up around 750, and it pushes it up into the NH border region for a couple hours. Northern edge will probably fluctuate with lift, but something to watch on the 12z runs.
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Yeah agree. I think for more than just more localized amounts over 6" the Friday stuff will need to come in robust.
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Hrrr is super juiced up. Hard to buy that kind of qpf in these, but well see. Pushing 1.25" in SNH in like 8 hours
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Was wondering how it looked, pivotals maps are all blank
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Yeah its dicey, definitely want the thumpier solutions with big lift for 3-4 hours
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I think the producers with sealed vacuum systems it makes sense to try and capitalize on it. Always a risk vs reward for gravity/open air systems. Taps could dry out and lose the end of the season
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I think it goes over the FZDZ or snizzle right into Central NH for a bit once the mid-level dryslot punches through. The DGZ completely dries out, then resaturates by late-morning/midday Friday.
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Nice thump on the nam with the first batch down to maybe route 2-ish, and especially closer to the NH border on north.
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Nam looks a touch cooler for those on the fringes
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EPS mean looks like it tracks over SE MA/Cape for Sun/Mon
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What a bomb on the euro
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What a weenie run for Stowe.
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Pretty much over my head. It's a bomb though, big snows in NNE
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A quick glance, but the euro looks a touch colder than 6z. Seems to have a little better lift, which might be helping.
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Ukie looks like a big hit for the berks into CNE at 144hr
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Riding the line that run. So borderline from the sfc up past 850. Gonna want a saturated DGZ with lift given that look. I'm in the "proceed with caution" crowd for us south of MHT. I'm not totally selling the first round, but there's not a ton of wiggle room.
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12z NAM will definitely be a bump north with the mid levels, esp @850. Still fairly cool at the sfc
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6z euro/nam looked pretty good down into northernmost mass. Gfs is a little warmer/north
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It's almost useless at this range but the nam is pretty cold at 84hr.
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Warm nose is centered around 850 on the soudnings and gets pretty warm, esp pike south on the 12z stuff. So, I think latitude will be in play too, and of course things could always shift always back north some. The 850 0 line, along with sfc Ts are probably a good approx R/S line for this one.
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Picking back up in the Rockingham band. Great flakes
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Yeah the last few gfs runs have been hitting that inverted trough type setup that blossoms as the upper level support approaches. Prolongs precip into Friday
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That forecast gets some hourly high res influence in the short term (IBM Graf), so it can sometimes align with radar trends.
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There was a wicked wedge up there around 925. Probably quite a bit of sleet contamination overnight into this morning. Temps also get kinda borderline today to max accretion across Downeast ME.
