Great Snow 1717

The understatement of the year!

FYP

no and no...

That happened but at least they usually reinforced the cold air. And at times it led to storms developing along the front along the Atlantic seaboard.

They were great for providing reinforcing shots of cold air and at times some decent snow. I think one of the reasons for the disappearance of them is the tendency for storms to hit the pacific NW.

Unsolved Mysteries should do a show on the disappearance of the Alberta Clipper!

Early American Winters Volumes 1 & 2...must reads for any weather enthusiast.

Thanks for the reply. If you are looking for a Christmas gift for yourself, I suggest buying So Cold a Sky...it is a great book!! https://www.amazon.com/Cold-Upper-Michigan-Weather-Stories/dp/097781890X/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=

There is a million times better chance of the Jets winning 10 consecutive Super Bowls than 1917-1918 being replaced as the coldest winter......that record is safe

When did you first begin to notice that?

Don, thank you!

Yes, very likely the same storm.

Don, which site did you use to generate the charts?

Here in NE Mass there wasn't a lot of snow after early March 2015. It did remain cold into early April. I moved into my home mid December 93. The first snowstorm occurred a few days after Christmas. Prior to that there were several coastal storms but it was too warm for snow BUT it was a good sign that there were coastal storms.

for the winter of 14-15 there was little winter weather until a historic pattern set up in late January. That pattern is likely a once every 300-400 year pattern.

Even in the mountains in New England there has been a change.

Using analog years is one of the main reasons why so many winter forecasts fail.

Agree

Winters are the same length but there is far less winter type weather during winter. People are just going to have to accept the impact that climate change has had on winter.

Every time the models get improved they get worse...I'm with you it's time for a "palace coup" to return the old GFS..

Forky got forked...

Exactly lol

Correct

It is because far too many people fail to account for climate change. The overuse of analog years also contributes to poor forecasting. Using analog years would make some sense if the climate had remained essentially the same. The source region for the cold air has warmed considerably. Larry Cosgrove is one of the few Mets who mentions that climate change has to be a consideration when developing a seasonal forecast. Another thing that leads to poor forecasting is a lack of pattern recognition. There is an over reliance on the models and various indexes such aa the AO PNA and NAO. Just look at what has been occuring....one system after another into the Pacific NW. Back in the day forecasters on the east coast would often mention that a stormy pattern for the Pacific NW doesn't bode well for winter weather enthusiasts on the east coast.....now it is rarely mentioned.