Great Snow 1717

I agree with you on the ridge not being as strong as in 14-15. Considering the state of affairs in the northern hemisphere and with the developing El Nino, a -NAO is a must for this upcoming winter.

I think your call of 1.5 - 3.5 is well within the realm of possibilities. I think the overall pattern is going to be very difficult to breakdown. For a while now it has had the "feel" of 15-16 but for different reasons. It has been a remarkable summer in the northern hemisphere.

And the recession/depression that is coming is going to be devastating for many. Do your homework and you'll learn that the vast majority of recessions have occurred when a republican has been in office. It's just a matter of time until Trump's policies take down the economy. Perhaps Trump can sell CT to the Russians to help pay for the national debt....or to raise capital for the Wall of bullsh**

Making Toolland great again

But the majority of people do not post endlessly about them.

He's gotten the super pattern that he has long wished for but what he has failed to give consideration to is the thought that the super pattern lingers well into the fall and perhaps the winter. Then he will not be writing "It's absolutely been awesome"....in time it is going to change to "It's been absolutely terrible, I do not understand why people want it to be warm in the fall and winter"

No doubt that the foliage is being hurt by the warmth in the fall. Another incoming this fall.

Going to be a torch fall and winter too...….

JB has posted his winter outlook and once again he is calling for a cold and snowy winter in the east. Although he does seem to be leaning towards a "warm" Dec. I find his temp outlook map for the winter to be suspect.

I agree. Summer is beginning to have that mid to late August feel to it.

I agree with your thoughts regarding always safer to predict AN, In a recent newsletter Larry Cosgrove mentioned something about the need to factor in global warming in to long range forecast. I've never been a fan of using the 30 year data subset. I think it would be better to compare the current to the entire set of data for a particular site. By doing so it will provide a much better representation of temp trends over a longer period of time. I'm also not a fan of using analog years in long term forecasting. And I think the use of analog years is one of the primary reasons why so many long range forecasts fail.

Yes of course, and the window AC talk that begins on 4/1 every year.

Probably from the same place you get your stuff regarding an 1816 redux.

Orioles to the Cape League next summer???

So far the Sox season closely mirrors the season the Dodgers had in 2017. At one point the Dodgers were 91-36. They had a staggering run of 52-9 at one point in the season. At 91-36 it seemed like a lock that the Dodgers would win 115-120 games.....then the roofed caved in. The Dodgers lost 16 out of 17 games. No one could have predicted that stretch of losing. Included in that stretch was a 10 game losing streak which matched the franchise worst losing streak since moving to LA. The Dodgers righted the ship somewhat to finish with 104 wins. And they went on to play in the WS and lost to Houston. What fate lies in store for the Sox?...well they may remain a hot team the rest of the way and break the all time record for wins in a season or they could stumble along the way to the finish line. Regardless of what happens the Sox are going to be under enormous pressure to win once the playoffs begin. And it is going to be interesting to see how the team performs in that white hot cauldron. And you are right the lack of mystery in the game. All of the teams are being run by the stat geeks with a similar mindset. Jayson Werth recently hammered(in an interview) the "super nerds " as he refers to them. Much like the NBA, MLB now features 1 style of play.

Thank you for the information. The Grazulis book on Amazon has a price range of $312-$3215.

In a limited search online it seems as if the 1991 Georgetown tornado was the last to hit Essex County. Everyone defines the MV area differently. I would include it as being part of the MV area. According to the Tornado Project Online(data from 1950-2012) the last tornado in Essex County prior to 1991 occurred in 1972. Originally I was planning to compile a list of tornadoes that have hit the MV area but I now want to come up with a list of tornadoes that have been reported in Essex County. The 1890 tornado that hit Lawrence has always intrigued me because it hit an area that I am quite familiar with. According to what I have read the tornado first touched down in Fisksdale and then lifted off the ground before hitting Billerica, then lifting off once more before hitting Lawrence. The funnel cloud was last observed over Newburyport but it did not touch down there.

Have you come across any video showing the tornado? From everything I've read it was rain wrapped.

If my memory is serving me well I think the Merrimack Valley in Ma. area has gone at least 20 years without a tornado.

So you deny writing this??????

The good thing is the term "zipper low" can be retired to the weather hall of shame. The problem is social media creates competition, so to be "heard" many people resort to hyping news/weather/sports to attract attention. And to create the attention people spend all day trying to come up with new terms such as "zipper low". In basketball someone came up with the term "score the basketball" I never would have guessed that Curry is a scorer before hearing "Curry can really score the basketball"!....oh wait I just came up with a new term "a zipper scorer" ..as in "Curry is a zipper scorer on drives to the basket".....now I just need a twitter handle....

LWM has been running on the warm side for years and it's by several degrees. There is some sort of issue with that site.

A couple of weeks ago JB hinted about a late starting winter. I do think the current overall pattern is going to be difficult to eradicate.

And in other news, the owners of the Mandalay Bay Hotel have filed suit against the shooting victims.

As usual he is wrong. He has forgotten the mess the country was in when Obama took office. And he has forgotten and/or ignoring the fact that the vast majority of recessions have occurred when a republican has been in office. Here is today's safest bet....I bet he enjoyed the recovery in his 401K account during the Obama years. I highly doubt he donated the gains to charity to make a point against Obama. The money is still festering in his 401K account. And when the next recession hits his 401K account will be TORCHED!!