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JC-CT

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Everything posted by JC-CT

  1. All fun and games until this happens on April 20th
  2. ripping and reading the GFS OP into clown range is a dangerous lifestyle
  3. I posted this earlier this morning. Euro definitely won between those two.
  4. @The 4 SeasonsAppreciate you taking the time to talk to me and try to figure out my outlier report before putting together the map, and of course the fact that you took me at my word for what I reported. I took a little deeper dive into the cocorahs numbers this afternoon, and unless I'm badly misinterpreting the data, my (and @IowaStorm05's) measurements don't look that crazy after all when you account for the fact that we didn't do 6 hour clears but measured new snow depth after it was winding down. I did remeasure in the morning on 1/30 and still had 9" new plus the 1" glacier layer I went into it with. Seems all of the bigger totals in Tolland County were doing at a minimum 24 hour clears which would have caught the first 6 hours of the storm, but more likely they were mostly all 6 hour clears (one of the stations, Willington, even had 1.5" less OTG on 1/30 at 7am than they reported as new for just the previous 24 hours, which of course didn't include early AM on 1/29 - so it couldn't have even been a 24 hour clear). The Willington station does seem to be a reliable daily reporter, reporting depths of 11.0" on the mornings of both 1/30 and 1/31, then 9.0", 8.5", and 5.5" through this morning (OUCH). So either I had an extremely low ratio 9" that was comparable in LE to whatever fell to my north/northeast, or probably more likely is that my report is understated vs had I measured and cleared the board every 6 hours. I always thought that clearing the board only made a small difference (<1") unless snowfall totals started to get way up there or in super fluffy snow, but that doesn't seem to be the case here. I also thought that NWS & cocorahs guidelines were to not clear until the end of a storm (unless you are an airport) but it seems like clearing might still be the norm. There were, however, a cluster of measurements from the Somers area between 9"-10" that all appear to be final OTG measurements (OTG = new accumulation). The 8.0"s from Rocky Hill and East Hartford also appear to be final OTG measurements. The station that reported 13.8" in Manchester reported both 3.8" new and 3.8" OTG as of 7am on 1/29, and reported 10.0" new at 7am on 1/30 but did not include an OTG depth in that report, and they have not reported since. Point being, I'm not convinced there was quite as severe a cutoff there as was highlighted, for example between that 13.8" and the 8" in East Hartford, although there was definitely a gradient until you got into that secondary morning band over the Southington area. Seems like at least a factor in the variances in reporting may have been measuring/reporting method. Curious to hear your (or anyone's) thoughts on this, as I'm very confident in my measurement for new snow depth as of the morning of 1/30 at approximately 9" new, 10" total depth, of dry but dense snow. OTG Snow Depth 1/30:
  5. then it's particularly odd that GFS is so cold at the surface vs other guidance
  6. tick tick tick on the 8th can't wait for it to turn into another rainer
  7. I've been waiting for a model to try to do that. It's been dragging along a little bit more energy each run for a while.
  8. Yeah, GFS has already busted hard. Euro seems more on track.
  9. If we're lucky, might even get enough to do this
  10. How about the fv3? Dropping a foot on your weenie
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