Windspeed

FWIW, the GFS this morning redevelops Dolly's remnants in the GOM and gives Texas a hurricane.

Agree with everything that has been said and discussed. We're all essentially watching if something can slip through and under a favorable environment north of the Antilles and time just right with an ECONUS ridge. Essentially, Andrew. However, that takes a lot of luck (or bad luck for perspective). I really don't expect much out of the MDR other than some early developing TCs that end up getting ripped apart. Too many reforming walls of shear that probably aren't going to leave us through Autumn. Additionally, we still have to watch the GOM and the WCARIB for something that might pop up out of a gyre. Those can sometimes get lucky with a wave breaking event to the east. The GOM is boiling and will be primed well into late October.

Long-range operationals this morning across the board are some of the most hostile shear parameters I can recall over the Atlantic Basin for early September in well over a decade. Perhaps even further back past previous dead seasonal peaks. This in of itself is quite fascinating.

I'm beating a dead horse here, but that is a horrible look. It would be nice to have at least one powerful long-tracker to, well, track. No use in complaining. It is what it is...

The first wave the OP GFS had been persistently developing the past few days was lost on the most recent 00z run. No surprise, around 100-120 hrs, it gets mauled by 30-50 kt westerlies. The 2nd wave mentioned in the previous post hits the same wall around 200 hrs out. Something probably will hit a favorable pocket eventually, and perhaps the deep mind is seeing that, but the upper levels will have to chill out. Not sure how the AI models are handling those same modeled westerlies simulated on the GFS and ECMWF operationals at advanced hours. That being said, recent EURO runs have been flirting with the build of dominant 500 MB heights over the ECONUS and WATL around Labor Day. We'll see if one of the later AEWs can find its way under that ridge and a more favorable ULAC pocket amidst the upper level chaos.

A long-tracking hurricane? Maybe. Perhaps a few long-tracking TCs regardless. One that remains powerful enough to stack ACE? There in lies the problem, or lack of a problem, depending on perspective. Yes, Joaquin occurred during an El Niño season. But you should read up on that TC's meteorological history. Joaquin did not form in the MDR, nor was it even associated with an AEW. That particular TC formed out of a retrograding mid-to-upper cutoff interacting with a remnant surface trough. Despite its stall and eventual high-end intensity, such a system doesn't happen with frequency even during active seasons. My previous post is merely stating, sure, climatology might get us a hurricane, or even a few of them this season. I just doubt we'll see any CV majors cross the MDR and rack up significant ACE with walls of shear. Something might develop, may even flirt with hurricane status, or become a hurricane, but it will probably struggle to reach or maintain major status very long, if at all, to pump up those numbers. Mind you, these comments should also not be confused with significant landfalls or impacts. That could still occur. Yada, yada, yada, it only takes one. At any rate, we're quickly approaching the heart of the season. We shall see.

A PDS is currently out for the ongoing flooding emergency:

Radar coverage for the eastern half of the island is down at present. Unfortunately, a strong backside circulation feeder band with enhanced southerly flow is aligned and curving upslope right over the Big Island. Radar would most likely show an ongoing firehouse if it were still operational. You will notice the lightning showing where the deepest cells are likely training under the deepest convection.

I am not confident we will see substantial ACE accrued in the Atlantic Basin this year. We may get a TC that finds its way into the right synoptic pattern at the right time to become a hurricane, regardless of land threat, but I do not forsee any long tracking systems remaining powerful for a duration that would stack ACE points. There will just be too much airmass expanding away from the Pacific from the mid-to-upper levels shearing off whatever might develop in the Atlantic MDR.

Crazy total rain accumulations have occurred over the eastward facing volcanic slopes of Kilauea and Mauna Loa massifs. Not unexpected, but hopefully more populated residential areas have avoided high water this morning.

Hrmm...

I actually like the call for minimal hurricane on the closest approach. Though the discussion mentioned not much change in organization or intensity in the past six hours, Lala's core structure is starting to show some interesting signs it may be about to begin a period of intensification. Over the past several hours, organizing banding is wrapping near the CoC. Additionally, some deeper convection is now firing within that interior band, and radar also suggests a shallow ring is evolving. SSTs are running above 27-27.5°C at that location, which is above normal aided by the strengthening El Niño. I'd favor steady intensification now despite any lingering dry airmass and status quo at this point.

That is just not a great look for the first potential MDR system. A wall of strong mid-to-upper shear with a sharp trough or cutoff as it moves NE of the Lesser Antilles has stayed persistent between 72 and 144 hrs over the past day or two of operational runs. May have to pay attention to the MDR setup if perhaps a second system can organize behind the first, where it could slip into better upper support or pocket of favorablility. But my enthusiasm is very much lacking so far for the first.

The OBS make logical sense. Though Dolphin's eyewall has clearly intensified, the expansive sink and spread out low pressure surface trough due to many days of large eyewalls and concentric banding now surround the central vorticity maximum and core (i.e. background pressures are very low around the typhoon's envelope). Dolphin won't increase the overall maxium wind too significantly. However, it will allow strong winds to mix down better in the eye. Still an impressive system regardless if it is not capable of reaching high end typhoon status again.

Land interaction appears to have allowed Dolphin's inner core to tighten up over the past 12 hours. The satellite presentation sort of speaks for itself. The inner eyewall has remained over water while any concentric banding is moving directly over the mountainous terrain of Okinawa and surrounding peaks of Nakijin. Fractional convergence is winning, and Dolphin's eyewall appears to be intensifying at present. Several CBs rotating around allowing the CDO to cool in the process. A magnificent satellite presentation.