Windspeed

The lightning in these overnight cells gets intense, and if you happen to find yourself under one, look out. I had a tree struck around 2AM here. Virtually no wind. Just periods of frequent CGs.

If nothing else, at least it is a feature to track and watch. There is nothing much to add beyond the most recent posts. Spot on. It's a mid-level system / pulsing MCS. Let's see if it will ramp up again this evening. We need persistent deep convection to drive inflow and get vorticity to resolve in the low levels. That happening out over the GOM sooner than later determines if we get a TC or just beneficial rains to the upper peninsula. Again, it's something interesting to watch, and we may not get many of these this season.

Potential surface disturbance in the NE GOM is still hinted by ensembles. But realistically, any surface low would need steering currents to remain weak to gain development time and any potential vorticity to resolve away from land for something substantial to form.

Ditto.

Oh no!! He will be greatly missed! Thank you GaWx for letting everyone know. Rest in peace, Roger. May your contests be forever eternal in the great beyond.

If El Niño is strong, which I do think it will be, it should, in theory, give the Atlantic a break this year. That doesn't mean we still won't see a few hurricanes or perhaps even a few landfalls. The old saying, it only takes one while recalling Andrew in '92, a strong Niño year, etc.; however, I would expect overall activity to be below normal for seasonal numbers. Too much shear and unfavorability across the basin should curb CV long-trackers. Obviously, if ENSO doesn't swing too positive or the Niño is weaker, then anything is on the table. As of now, based on current trends, I do expect below normal overall activity in 2026 for the Atlantic basin.

I think KTRI officially got down to -3°F at the airport, but my vehicle read -5°F at work in Bristol. Either way, an official new record low temperature for February 2nd. Fortunately, there's no wind, so there's no real difference in wind chill.

We are either going to tie or break our record low for KTRI by daybreak. Skies are clear, and I am at 0°F at my location. Showing 1°F at KTRI. The official record low for KTRI on February 2nd is exactly 0°F. With a clear sky and no wind, surely we can drop another degree or two at the airport. Edit: And we officially recorded a new record low for February 2nd. Currently -1°F at KTRI. Edit 2: Posted in the storm OBS thread, but will paste here for posterity. KTRI officially got down to -3°F at the airport, but my vehicle read -5°F at work in Bristol. Either way, an official new record low temperature for February 2nd. Fortunately, there's no wind, so there's no real difference in wind chill.

It's just too cold for brine to be effective at these temperatures, no? They heavily treated the main road nearby, and it's all white other what they've managed to scrap or plow.

Congrats to everyone who got smashed. The event is still going, of course. We still have nice backing bands. Might we get a deformation band or trowal as the precipitation pulls eastward this afternoon?

One bad aspect of the initial melting the first few hours this afternoon is that all that wetness is going to freeze solid under the snow tonight. Should be pretty slick for driving upon later even with the more powdery stuff to come on top of it.

Cranking heavy snow here just south of Bristol. Big fatties. Ground is white. Starting to cover driveway and road.

The RGEM crushed our souls last week once it got into range. Everything quickly followed suit, so I'm going stubbornly stick with it through the evening. The 12z run doesn't have my location with an inch of accumulation at 10:1 until around 0z / 7PM. That seems reasonable, given the melting occurring with the sun. I figure we won't see heavy returns until sunset. As the temperature drops that ratio should also increase with the cold column in place.

We're nearly in nowcast mode. Banding across Kentucky into SWVA is steadily thickening on returns out of Jackson. Some of this may no longer be virga. Also returns are beginning to fill out of Morristown. Game time is upon us.

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