J.Spin

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.35” L.E. We picked up a round of accumulation midday yesterday as the heaviest precipitation came through with the primary front, and then we had additional rounds yesterday evening and overnight as the secondary front has been pushing through the area. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 28.0 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 4 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches

The radar image really tells the story of today's weather, with the popcorn/cellular/convective nature of the precipitation. We’ll have a period of sun, the clouds blast in and we’ll get some snow accumulation, then the snow will melt back and the process will repeat again and again. You can even see some of the cells develop out of nowhere just to the west of the spine before they hit us:

Thanks for the updates PF, I can see where the confusion came from. It looks like this is a development that has arisen in the past week? I’m guessing last weekend (April 4th) was about the time this went into effect? We’d actually heard about Stowe and Smugg’s closing all access at some point because of too many people congregating and potentially ruining social distancing measures, but I had no idea it was so extreme. My wife and I were talking about the several hundred cars you mentioned, and if you start thinking about the average number of people per vehicle and doing the math, the numbers get large quite quickly. Knowing the typical scene in the Stowe parking lot on big spring weekends, I can absolutely understand the concern. As you can imagine, we haven’t seen anything like that up at Bolton. I checked back in my reports from roughly the past month, and I did note a couple dozen cars when we were out during Winter Storm Quincy back on the 24th. That’s not really atypical (and some of the cars in the upper lot are from people who live in the village), so I didn’t give it much thought. I don’t really follow social media like Facebook or Twitter, but taking a look now, there’s nothing new on the Bolton Valley Twitter since March 27th, and I don’t see anything on their Facebook page (not that one can find anything on Facebook anyway since every page I look at there seems to be such an organizational disaster). It’s interesting, because aside from you bringing this up, I’m not sure where I would have learned about this update to the actual policy. On the Bolton Valley website, there’s the initial announcement of the suspension of winter operations on March 15th, and then if you click down all the way into the detailed snow report you get the information: “Bolton Valley is closed for the winter season. This includes resort wide operations, services and our designated uphill routes and backcountry terrain - it is all closed at this time due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.”, which is from March 25th. Indeed, they indicate that the resort is closed, but to us it read just like the typical statement letting you know that all the resort facilities are officially closed, so there’s no ski patrol, services, use at your own risk etc. It’s too bad, because ski touring is obviously a great way to get needed exercise and stay well away from others in the interest of social distancing, but if indeed people congregating is the issue that they’re seeing, then we should honor that goal. We’re obviously well within any 10-mile limit for recreation (we’re just a few miles as the crow flies or by road). It’s just a bit weird that it’s OK to say, ride my bike, from my house, up to the resort, on the road, but to then hop on my skis and spread out further onto thousands of acres of their backcountry terrain is discouraged.

I hadn’t actually heard anything about it, and from everything I’ve seen on my outings, the locals are doing their thing, social distancing isn’t an issue at all, and there aren’t any signs indicating “no trespassing”, “do not enter due COVID-19 pandemic”, etc. The resort seemed to be in its usual “closed” status, which always seemed to be “use at your own risk” vs. “no trespassing”. Nobody I’ve seen out there seemed to perceive it any differently. I’ve been to the resort homepage and hadn’t seen anything, and even if you click on the conditions report, there’s no indication of a special closure. However, digging a little deeper, I see that if I click on the detailed snow report link, they do have this: “Bolton Valley is closed for the winter season. This includes resort wide operations, services and our designated uphill routes and backcountry terrain - it is all closed at this time due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. We can't wait to see you all around the mountain again soon, but for now, are following the guidance of state and local health officials who do recommend you continue to get outside and exercise, but do so as close to your homes as possible. Thank you for your understanding and support.” I hadn’t clicked on the detailed report before because there typically aren’t updates to that once the resort is closed. Now that I see it, that’s sort of tough one for the folks in all the houses right on the trails and in the Village though, where the ski trails are literally their back yard. What are they supposed to do, only leave the front side of their property and walk on the street? (where they are far more likely to be close to someone vs. the thousands of acres of undeveloped terrain out their back door) State officials have indeed left exercise as one of the viable reasons for leaving the house, since they realize that it’s important to everyone’s health and wellbeing, and it can easily be done while keeping social distancing protocols intact. Hiking, ski touring, and similar activities seem like some of the best options out there with respect to keeping distance (how many exercise activities are there where you can go for hours and not see a single other person?) I can see that it’s a balancing act of course, because you don’t want hundreds of people congregating at a resort and essentially ruining the social distancing that they’re supposed to be practicing. If I go to Stowe’s site, they indeed have closure information on the homepage, one link to the fact that the resort is closed altogether, which links to a general Vail Resorts page. Then, down below, they’ve got the note about uphill access being closed: “Uphill access is currently CLOSED on all portions of Stowe Mountain Resort until further notice. Without ski patrol & terrain maintenance, it is unsafe for skiers & riders, those sledding, and first responders. Thanks for respecting all posted closures. These closures mitigate the risk to our first responders and protect our local resources. Your safety and the safety of our community is our top priority.” Isn’t uphill access at the resort essentially always closed now out of season? I thought that was the policy since Vail took over. Do they have a special statement in regard to the COVID-19 outbreak that indicates things are different that the standard closure?

Yeah, it definitely snowed more overnight on the mountain. We went for a tour this morning, and with whatever settling occurred since my measurements from yesterday, we general found 3-4” additional snow at elevations above 1,500’. The snow line had dropped to around 600’ on the access road, and accumulations at 2,000’ were around 8”. We topped out at roughly 2,800’ on today’s tour, but accumulations are a foot plus from there on up. I’ve updated the elevation profile from yesterday’s tour with today’s total accumulation numbers, which are in bold below: 340’: 0” --> 0” 600’: -----> T 900’: T --> ½” 1,000’: ½-1” --> ½-1” 1,500’: 2” --> 5” 2,000’: 4-5” --> 8” 2,500’: 7” --> 9-10” 2,800’: 12” 3,000’: 8-9” --> 12”+ There was more snow falling while we were up there as well:

Event totals: 1.5” Snow/1.54” L.E. We picked up some additional snow this morning after 6:00 A.M.; the flakes were quite fluffy with just a trace of additional liquid. Details from the 1:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 38.5 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: Trace

The snow has been picking up again here as I see we’ve got another push of moisture coming in from the northwest:

Event totals: 1.3” Snow/1.54” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.07 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 8.6 Snow Density: 11.7% H2O Temperature: 31.1 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches

Event totals: 0.7” Snow/1.47” L.E. The snow is beginning to accumulate again here in the valley now that evening has set in and temperatures have come back down. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.5 inches New Liquid: 0.11 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 4.5 Snow Density: 22.0% H2O Temperature: 33.4 F Sky: Snow (5 to 20 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches

I popped up to the mountain for a tour this afternoon, so here’s the snow accumulation profile starting from the bottom of the Bolton Valley Access Road: 340’: 0” 900’: T 1,000’: ½-1” 1,500’: 2” 2,000’: 4-5” 2,500’: 7” 3,000’: 8-9” I put the 900’ measurement in there because that’s right where you could see the first accumulations, and they quickly jumped up by the time you hit the Bolton Valley Welcome Sign at ~1,000’. The snow wasn’t really wet at all (at least where I was touring in the 2,000’+ range). It was reasonably dense and offered plenty of bottomless turns, but certainly not unlimited bottomless turns on all the steepest pitches. We’ve had roughly 1.25” of liquid equivalent from this event down here at the house, so there’s certainly a decent amount of L.E. in that snow at elevation. It was interesting up on the mountain today because a bit of sunshine appeared near the start of the tour, but by the time I was finishing up it was pounding heavy snow composed of big flakes. It was in the 20s F and snowing so hard in the Village at that point that it felt like it had to be accumulating down in the valley, but it was an impressive gradient as I headed back down the mountain and the snow still wasn’t really accumulating much below the 1,000’ level.

Checking on the Bolton Valley live webcams I’d say there’s an inch or two at 2,100’. The temperatures have definitely helped so far today up there relative to yesterday. For yesterday’s snow you could see the accumulations down at the main base kind of accumulate and melt back to expose areas of old snow, but most of those grungy areas of snow are pretty well covered up at base elevation right now. Via the Vista Peak cam, it looks like there have been at least a few inches of snow up there at 3,150’, but it’s hard to say with the wind (I actually just saw a skier head down Alta Vista, but couldn’t tell too much from their turns). If I head up I’ll certainly pass along a report, as it’s definitely snowing and accumulating up there right now.

We’ve had light snow pretty continuously all morning, but we’ve only had 0.2” of accumulation through noon here, so just a coating on some surfaces. I don’t think we’ll accumulate much during the day down here at our elevation base on what I’m seeing out there now. If the moisture is still going I could imagine some additional accumulation as temperatures come down tonight.

Yeah, we hadn’t really seen any snow with this system yet down here at 500’ in the Winooski Valley, but we did start getting some flakes and accumulation this morning at some point in the 8:00 A.M. to 8:30 A.M. range.

I see on Bolton’s webcams that the precipitation is all snow up at Vista Peak at 3,150’ and even down at 2,100’ at the main base. Since this is expected to be the warmer part or the storm, that’s a good sign with respect to getting some decent accumulations out of this event to support turns. I haven’t seen any flakes down here at 500’ yet, but we’re still fairly warm in the valley.

Yeah, I saw that winter alerts had gone up in the latest updates. Our point forecast here calls for something in the 3-6” range, which seems to jive with what they’ve got in the projected accumulations map. If we’ve got the potential for accumulations down at 500’, then you know the mountains have the potential to do well, as the latest Mansfield point forecast would suggest: Thursday Snow showers, mainly before noon, then snow after noon. High near 36. Very windy, with a south wind 25 to 35 mph increasing to 40 to 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Wind chill values as low as -1. Very windy, with a west wind 45 to 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Friday Snow. High near 25. Wind chill values as low as zero. Windy, with a northwest wind 30 to 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Friday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Windy, with a northwest wind 26 to 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Saturday A 30 percent chance of snow showers before 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Blustery, with a northwest wind 20 to 25 mph. The latest BTV NWS alerts and accumulations maps are below, with some of that 12-18” shading along the spine in the Bolton-Mansfield stretch:

The BTV NWS has a headline going for the event on their home page, and I’ve pasted their most recent projected accumulations map below. The shading in the current iteration of the map suggests a general 8-12” along the spine for the Northern Greens, and it looks like it’s just getting into that 12-18” shading up near Jay Peak.

It’s definitely becoming potent in some of the modeling, and the BTV NWS is starting to talk about it in their discussions: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1030 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020 .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ...setup is looking increasingly favorable for some snow accumulations in higher terrain as upper- level low stall and pivots over the forecast area. Storm total snow through Friday will be in the 2 to 5 inch range for much of the Northeast Kingdom and portions of the northern Adirondacks. Higher peaks (generally 1500 ft and above) of the NEK and northern Greens have the potential for 6+ inches. Winter Weather Advisories may be needed for portions of northern Vermont, but given that the heavier accumulations will be restricted to 1500 ft and above, have elected to hold off any headlines at this point.

When I checked yesterday at observations time, the last of the snow had disappeared in the yard, so April 6th marked the final day of the seasonal snowpack. The numbers here indicate that mean melt out is April 15th, ± 11 days, so this year was early, but within 1 S.D. of the mean. Duration of the continuous snowpack this season ended up being 151 days, which was longer than average because of the early start, but also within 1 S.D. of the mean. Despite being behind average snowfall pace right now by over 20 inches, this season wound up being quite respectable in that snowpack duration category, ranking in 4th place out of the 14 seasons in my records.

March Totals Accumulating Storms: 7 Snowfall: 12.9” Liquid Equivalent: 3.34” March mean and median snowfall here at our site are both right around 30 inches, so this March was definitely somewhat lean in that department, running 0.86 S.D. below average. This March certainly won’t go down as a “middle of the pack” type of month, but it’s definitely not in with the “bottom of the barrel” type seasons like ‘09-‘10 (2.1”) and ’15-‘16 (5.7”) either. It even edged out ‘08-‘09 (12.6”), although it certainly falls in that group with seasons like ’11-‘12 (14.2”) and ’14-‘15 (17.2”). Total liquid for the month was a bit below the mean (3.67”), but pretty typical overall. The total number of accumulating snowstorms was actually right about the average (~7.5). Now that we’re on to April, the yard snowpack is dwindling and I suspect the last vestiges will be gone within a few days. It will likely disappear earlier than average (4/15), but it already looks like it’s going to persist longer than some of the very early seasons like ‘09-‘10 (4/3). This season had a very early snowpack start though (11/8), so the duration of the continuous winter snowpack here in the yard is already at 148 days and beyond the average duration.

Nice, glad to hear you got out into the backcountry. I was actually thinking of touring on the Bolton BC Network when we were out the other day – with so many people off from work, the resort trails are getting more traffic than usual. The snowpack at the Mt. Mansfield Stake is still 60 inches, and the forecast shows various chances for snow in the higher elevations over the next week. Even if none of the snows are very substantial, there don’t seem to be any overly warm temperatures, so the snowpack at elevation shouldn’t be going anywhere. I’m hoping we get some more rounds of spring storms with accumulations like this last one – it’s kind of strange having the resorts closed here in March, but it’s presenting some unique opportunities. The time of year is always so great with the deep snowpack and longer days, and the warm spring skiing is certainly fun, but the spring powder days have such a cool vibe – you get a piece of winter sort of transplanted into spring, atop what is typically the deepest base of the season!

With the fresh powder from Winter Storm Quincy, my younger son and I headed out for a ski tour at Bolton Valley yesterday, so I can pass along some snow updates and images. Depth checks of the new snow at 1,500’, 2,000’, and even up above 3,000’ were all essentially the same in the 7 to 8” range. That’s essentially the same as what we picked up at the house, so overall, there really didn’t seem to be much change in accumulation around here from 500’ on up to above 3,000’. Temperatures stayed well below freezing even at 2,000’, and probably even down to 1,500’, so the turns were very nice. The powder was of medium to perhaps slightly higher density, the snow had a nice surfy consistency, with enough buoyancy for bottomless turns on even steep pitches in the black diamond range. You could certainly hit bottom on the very steepest pitches, but we focused on medium-angle terrain and it was bottomless all the way. With many people not going to work right now as the state strives to minimize the spread of COVID-19, and a fresh dump of powder on the slopes, I guess I shouldn’t have been surprised at how many people were out for turns. The number of people touring seemed notable though – between Timberline and the Village, there were at least several dozen cars out there. Despite the number of people up at the resort, it was clear that even resort ski touring is still a great activity for social distancing. As is typically the case, we actually saw only a few people while we were out on the hill, and you still never had to go within 50 feet of anyone if you didn’t want to. A few shots from the tour:

That’s actually what we do a lot throughout the winter – simply clear the plow berm at the end of the driveway with shovels because that’s the only thing really presenting an issue. I do have neighbors who clean up just about every storm, and with the climate here giving an average of 50 storms a season with a mean snowfall per storm of 3.2 inches, you can imagine that’s going to be a lot of work. I really prefer to save the wear and tear on the equipment, impact on the environment, and the time required to get it done. For folks that enjoy the shoveling as an activity or exercise, you can certainly get plenty of it here throughout the winter, but I’d rather just head out and go for a ski tour to make use of the snow.

Indeed, this time of year it's especially undesirable to run the snow thrower when the driveway gravel isn't frozen in place. That kind of sets the threshold for actually clearing accumulations even a bit higher. We’ve got a solid slope on the driveway, but thankfully we’re running Subarus with Nokian WR G3s or WR G4s on them, so unless they start to struggle we typically just pack it down.

Totals here were 8.7” snow from 0.70” L.E., which at least in terms of snowfall was definitely above the initial NWS forecast. I didn’t run the snow thrower though – even in midwinter this would have potentially been borderline for a clearing depending on how packed the snow on the driveway was below it. In this case the driveway was essentially clear of snow to begin with, so this is just serving as a new base layer – and its’ nearing the end of March now, so it’s eventually going to melt. I took a look backward in my data for spring storms, and the one of significance I hit first was from last year on 3/21 to 3/23. I guess that one is sort of on the border for actually being in spring. Data for that one was 12.5” from 1.99 L.E., so obviously a lot more potent and dense with respect to snowfall, and I see it brought 2 to 3 feet of snow to the local mountains. This recent storm has certainly helped with respect to seasonal snowfall, but we’re still about 14 inches behind average pace due to the lackluster snowfall for much of the month. Average snowfall from this point on is about 10 inches here at our site. We’d need about double that to really get close in to average snowfall, but even if we stop at this point, the season would only be ~0.6 S.D. below the mean.

Event totals: 8.7” Snow/0.70” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.05 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 12.0 Snow Density: 8.3% H2O Temperature: 31.8 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 4 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches