J.Spin

So this seems like a cool way to access CoCoRaHS (and I assume other sorts of) weather data. I can see the website, but why haven’t we been using this in here before? Has something changed with respect to accessibility or options?

With what we’ve seen thus far, you shouldn’t be worried at all… at least up here in the mountains of NNE. If anything, your arrival has been a shot in the arm for NNE snow. The area has had multiple October snow events, and now multiple November snow events. That’s not necessarily that unusual for this area, but October and November can easily be slow months. I’d argue most spots around here are at least on an average snowfall pace, and many are probably even ahead of average pace. I know we’re well ahead of average snowfall here at our site. Average snowfall to this point in the season is only about a half a foot at our location, since the first half, or even two-thirds of November can be pretty lean on snowfall; our average daily snowfall for the first two-thirds of the month is ~0.2”/day. It’s the last third of the month where the snowfall typically starts to ramp up, averaging close to 1”/day. I’m seeing total snowfall of 12.7” on the season at the Randolph CoCoRaHS site, and even up there, that’s probably ahead of average pace. And, as people have been posting, there are multiple potential shots of additional snow appearing on the models. Sure, the storms aren’t likely to be 100% snow, but at least there’s a decent chance for some snow associated with them, and that’s pretty classic November around here. If there’s a curse in place for SNE, it’s clearly a result of getting that October snowfall. They seriously should not have done that, but there’s really no going back now. It certainly wasn’t on the scale of the infamous Octo-bomb, so I guess there’s hope? What doesn’t make sense is how you could be related to any sort of curse for SNE; you don’t even live there. I guess you could be driving through there on your way back and forth to MD, but it’s pretty farfetched to think that you’re the cause of the curse just because you transiently pass through an area. I definitely wouldn’t worry about it, because it’s much more likely that the October snow is the root cause of the situation vs. any one person.

This looks like a good place for some data! Your estimate is probably pretty darned close – my 14 years of data from our site have white Thanksgiving occurrence at 64.3%, with the past four years all being white. Mean Thanksgiving snowpack depth is not all that substantial, just 3.2”, with 2.0” for the median value. I agree that this November has felt like a fairly normal progression for the month. Indeed, we had the warm spell, but we’re also ahead of average snowfall here to this point in November due to the storms at the beginning of the month. The mean snowpack depth value for Nov 18th here is 1.2”, so we’re really quite “normal” in that regard. However, the mean snowpack value for this date doesn’t mean too much because November is very early winter down here in the valley and is typically quite a roller coaster with respect to freezing temperatures. Thus the snow on the ground is usually coming and going at this point. As folks have mentioned, this is still on the early side for the winter snowpack to start down at this elevation; the average snowpack start date is around the end of November/beginning of December, so snowpack averages before that point are typically going to be the mean of lots of crazy ups and downs.

Event totals: 5.5” Snow/0.88” L.E. This is probably the last round of accumulation for this storm? The radar is pretty quiet, and the forecast doesn’t suggest any precipitation tonight, so unless something changes, the above totals should be the final numbers here. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 21.7 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 1.5 inches

That’s great PF, nice to see the accumulations going on. If there was a base in place this event would probably make for some excellent turns. We’ll need to get some sort of synoptic system to put down that base snow though – this snow is awesome, but on its own it’s not quite going to get things going for the slopes. I’m getting ratios in the 30:1 to 50:1 range out of this, which is of course without compaction of the full accumulation, but even after some compaction this is still champagne. Actually, there might be some reasonable areas for turns up high, depending on how much of that denser snow from earlier in the storm is still present. I’m only seeing 4 inches at the Mt. Mansfield Stake as of yesterday though.

Event totals: 5.2” Snow/0.88” L.E. Snowfall has continued all morning at varying intensities, with a good burst taking place at observations time that quickly put down another 0.3” just in the time I was out there taking measurements and getting cores. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 35.0 Snow Density: 2.9% H2O Temperature: 25.9 F Sky: Snow (3-15 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

Event totals: 4.5” Snow/0.86” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.3 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 43.3 Snow Density: 2.3% H2O Temperature: 21.6 F Sky: Light Snow (2-15 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

What did Alex get out of today’s activity? It’s possible that this was just one of those events where the bulk of the moisture just didn’t make it all the way over to the Whites. As PF mentioned, the Greens are closer to the flow off the Great Lakes, so they cash in more easily on that moisture. It always seems surprising to me that the Adirondacks don’t do even better in that regard – in theory they should have first dibs on that Great Lakes moisture even before us, but they really don’t seem to capitalize on it. I’ve heard some theories in that it’s the shape of the range – the ‘dacks are sort of a centralized/circular jumble of mountains (supposedly they’re growing, being pushed up by some geological event underneath). Maybe the moisture just gets around the range too easily. In contrast, the Greens are lined up like a wall, a wall that’s 250 miles long. That’s a big barrier for moisture, with only a few spots to sneak through (like the pass here in the Winooski Valley). It’s also interesting to note that our direct flow off the lakes (well, specifically Lake Ontario, with maybe some assist from Lake Erie too) is from the southwest. They say that folks in the lake-effect belts all know the wind direction to watch for with respect to their town/location, and for our direct flow off Ontario, a 250-260° wind direction is what we watch for around here in the Northern Greens. But it’s interesting, sometimes we will have those direct flow events off Ontario where a spot like Mansfield will pick up a quick foot, but that’s certainly not our bread and butter. Our bread and butter flow for typical upslope snow is from the northwest. The moisture source is obvious when there’s a low pressure system sitting up in northern Maine wrapping the Atlantic into the spine, but when that’s not the case, it’s a bit more mysterious. The Great Lakes certainly aren’t directly to our northwest, but apparently some of their moisture gets pooled there. And another important point about that phenomenon is that indeed the Great Lakes aren’t to our northwest, but neither is anything else with respect to elevated terrain. It’s lots of flat plains, and the wall of the Greens is the first thing that moisture has to deal with as it heads this way, and they really succeed in wringing out what they can. We’ve had a number of years to get a feel for the microclimates around here in the Northern Greens, but that NNH area is definitely a bit more of a black box that needs consistent observations. We’re definitely getting a feel for Alex’s area now with his input, but your area really is something new.

Event totals: 3.1” Snow/0.83” L.E. The air temperatures have definitely dropped well below freezing now, but it seems that along with some settling, the recent snow had melted somewhat from below due to the warm ground. There were some stars visible at the most recent observations time, but another burst of snow has come into the area. Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.5 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0 Snow Density: 2.0% H2O Temperature: 27.3 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches

Yeah, pretty much. We always thought the neighborhood entrance sign here was kind of cute, although we were initially sort of oblivious to its full meaning. We get it now of course.

Event totals: 2.6” Snow/0.82” L.E. My wife got in from Morrisville a little while ago and was able to report what she saw along her route. In general, accumulations were less than what she saw here, with just a dusting in many areas, and roads were just wet. Valley temperatures have been marginal enough that it probably takes some increased snowfall intensity to really get the accumulations going, but with the temperature dropping down near the freezing mark, it should be easier now for the snow to stick. Details from the 4:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.1 inches New Liquid: 0.06 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 35.0 Snow Density: 2.9% H2O Temperature: 32.7 F Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

Yeah, you can see that trajectory on the radar – you guys were right in line to get it after it passed through here.

Well, the tenor of day changed pretty quickly around here. We’ve had snow all day, but it’s generally been light with a few transient accumulations. I was out taking care of a few leaves, and around 3:00 P.M. the switch was flipped and it quickly ramped up to heavy snowfall with huge flakes. The snowfall was heavy enough that I eventually had to stop and head in because I just couldn’t see the ground sufficiently to even get any work done. I checked the snowboard around 3:30 P.M. and there was already about two inches on it, so the snowfall in there was indeed near 4”/hr. It’s slowed down now, but you can see the look of the radar when that came through here:

We’re getting some additional accumulations here during the more vigorous bouts of precipitation as the temperatures start to come down. The precipitation I’ve seen is still generally graupel, which helps it achieve those transient accumulations. The temperatures should continue to cool though: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 631 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 540 PM EST Monday...Any rain showers will transition to snow as temperatures cool after sunset. The bulk of the activity will occur through about midnight, with coverage becoming more isolated and tied to the terrain thereafter. A weak cold front will sink south out of Canada later on Tuesday, and this may allow some additional showers to develop, especially over the northern mountains. As you showed, the radar has that westerly flow with areas of varying precipitation intensity, but the precipitation is generally frozen:

It’s been very similar here to what you’re seeing, and we were able to get our first measurable accumulation out of this system down here in the valley. In our case it was sleet (it seemed way to dense to be graupel), but similarly, it’s the sort of stuff that can survive the flight down into the warmer air from above. The boys and I were out splitting some wood and got hit with some rounds of frozen, with one round hitting the 0.1” threshold for accumulation. It looks like there are additional chances for snow/frozen into Wednesday as the models had suggested.

Nice PF, thanks for the visual update. There’s nothing new to report down here in the valley aside from the trace of sleet and snow that I mentioned earlier. That’s not too surprising with the current temperatures, and indeed the snow line looks pretty high. I do see flakes flying down at 2,100’ at Bolton’s main base, and there’s a coating of white up above 3,000’ at Vista.

Well, PF and I are obviously just joking around with our posts. I don’t really have much of an opinion about how winter is going to go in SNE. The same thing goes for up here in NNE. We just know that snowfall in NNE is generally greater, and has lower variance, so even in the worst of seasons, there’s going to be a certain amount of snow. It’s not really worth worrying about it. I find the long-range forecasting stuff pretty pointless anyway. I guess it’s fun for people to do as a hobby as the techniques get refined to a point where it might be more accurate. But, even then, what’s the rationale for these broad brush multi-month forecasts anyway? Even if someone “nails” a long-range winter forecast of this type with incredible accuracy, who cares? Aside from energy markets and related interests where subtle “trends” may play a role, I just don’t see the utility. Whether some spot is forecast to get 40 inches of snow over the course of a season, or 80 inches during that period, who in the public is going to do anything differently with respect to their daily lives? “Oh man, it sounds like we’re going to get 80 inches of snow this season vs. our usual 60 inches, which could mean four snow days for our local school instead of just two. I’d better change jobs now in preparation for being able to stay home and take care of the kids on those extra days.” The greatest utility in these types of forecasts might simply be to feed the fears, hopes, dreams, etc. of weenies.

Thanks for the updates PF. The mild weather was nice, but we’ve definitely shifted into that mid-month period of cold and snow chances that the forum has been talking about. We were outside here at the house getting some chores done, and we got hit with a round of sleet that eventually transitioned to snow. We did get accumulation, especially with the sleet, but nothing that hit the 0.1” threshold, so only a trace of frozen was recorded. Like you said, nothing major is expected with these next rounds of snow, but if it’s in our forecast even down here in the valley, the mountains are certainly likely to get something.

Yup. Didn't pay a dime for my doctorate. Taught undergrad lab courses which earned me the tuition waiver and got a 20K stipend every year from my advisor for 5 yrs. I actually lived a pretty good life financially while in grad school. Yeah, your experience is probably more the norm; it’s what I experienced, and it’s the case for just about every student I’ve known. I definitely disagreed with some of Powderbeard’s comments, but it looks like he’s coming from a perspective of going a more non-traditional route, in what sounds like a very expensive place to live. For the typical Ph.D. student in the biomedical sciences, the standard stipend is plenty to get by on and have a pretty good life as you note. I think the stipend for our students next year is around $32K, which is plenty to live on in the BTV area when you’re single, in your early 20s, have a couple roommates, etc. It’s just not a number that you’d want to live on if you’re going to raise a family, own and maintain a house, set yourself up for retirement, etc., etc. The system isn’t really set up for that sort of situation.

I’d say we might as well enjoy this beautiful weather while we’ve got it, since it looks like we’ll be back to more November-like temperatures with snow chances as we head into the weekend. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 628 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020 .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 355 PM EST Tuesday...In any case, still expecting rain showers sometime late Sunday to Monday becoming snow showers late Monday into Tuesday as cooler air pushes in behind the departing low. Thus, coolest temperatures expected midweek with highs only in the 30s. Looking back in my records, we’ve had some really tame Novembers around here, like November 2010 with 2.4” of snow, November 2015 with 2.0”, November 2009 with 0.2”, and November 2006 with zero snow for the entire month. I don’t know the pattern details from those Novembers, but this one is clearly different. Yeah we’ve already had over a foot from those couple of storms early in the month, but even without that, the pattern just doesn’t look quite as benign over the next couple of weeks.

Yeah, that’s been interesting. The snow is gone on our property as far as I can tell, but there’s a bunch that is hanging around on the south bank of the Winooski down here – I see it when I’m out on MTB rides. The snow there is protected from any sun, and I assume there’s some cooling or something going on around the river. Even with the warm temperatures, I guess the low sun angle helps preserve it as well. With these temperatures, the riding has been great now that things have generally dried out. One of the stranger feelings is having the sun so low and set so early, but still having some warm temperatures with darkness coming on so early. The temperature does eventually drop once the sun is gone, but there’s a really neat period in there near dusk where it’s clearly a wintry type sun angle but a spring-like feeling in the air. All the trees being well into stick season mode also sets up a strange dichotomy.

These past couple of Novembers have definitely had early snowpack starts here in the valley – in 2018 it was on November 10th, and last year in 2019 it was even earlier, November 8th. It’s funny to think of that with the current weather. Our mean/median snowpack start here is right at the beginning of December. So roughly half the time, the snowpack starts in November, but typically not as early as these past couple of years. The data say that these past couple of seasons are around the -1.5 σ mark, putting them in the earliest 10% of seasons for the start of the continuous winter snowpack.

I was initially puzzled by the statement as well, so I’m glad Ginx threw up the question mark to get clarification. The models show snow chances starting up again as of Friday night, and even up here in the mountains you can’t really pull that off in mid November with substantial warmth.

October Totals Accumulating Storms: 2 Snowfall: 0.7” Liquid Equivalent: 4.92” (-0.40”) Calendar Year Liquid: 42.13” (-2.61”) I hadn’t yet assembled my October precipitation data, but I’ve put it together now and pasted it above. It really was a pretty typical October based on what I’ve observed at this stie. Snowfall was a couple tenths low, but pretty darned close considering the potential variability in the month’s snow. Liquid was a few tenths low, and calendar year liquid is running 2-3” behind average pace.

I haven’t been up to the mountains since Tuesday, but I can pass along some valley snow observations from the past few days from my trips to Burlington. Heading westward into the Champlain Valley on Wednesday, snow disappeared around the Richmond area, then by Thursday the last signs were around the town of Bolton. Yesterday afternoon on the way home, I didn’t see anything in Bolton Flats, and snow didn’t show up until I got near our area near the pass on I-89. There were still a few patches around here at the house this morning, but I suspect this will be the last day to report anything from our location. This weather is really nice now – things are drying out and I should be able to finish lawn cleanup, and the local trails seem to have generally dried up as well, so it could be a good time for a ride. Next weekend doesn’t look nearly this nice though; the models suggest temperatures more typical of November around here with chances for snow if any systems affect the area.