wxman
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Everything posted by wxman
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On the very slightly brighter side, Reggie improved slightly for most of NJ.
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The coastal never gets cranking and we are flooded with warm air. Is it right? Who knows.
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Yikes, not what we wanted to see, but it's the NAM. It giveth and taketh away every cycle.
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GFS is consistent with most of the greats in our area. Very hard to stay all snow...but 90+% snow is doable...and think 8 to 14 is a good call attm from CNJ into NYC. That's what I'm telling people anyway. Bust low potential 4". Bust high potential 17".
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If the coastal is stronger like the GFS has been showing for days the mix line won't get north of the Monmouth cty
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It had almost the exact same evolution for 5 runs. A touch warmer, noise...but in a Rorschach test, people see what they want.
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Strongly agree with your conclusion...but not getting worse today is a win. We lose a lot more than we win around these parts.
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What site did you get that map from? Thanks!
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This will be a true test of forecasting skills versus just accepting what models spit out. There is definitely support for this projected outcome, just outside what we view as the consensus of the better models.
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Reminds me of a line from the old eastern days while tracking a big storm at around 4am: "we're looking at the wrong models!"
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Indeed! Would not be surprised...despite everyone saying "it's different" with this type of setup.
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What a difference a few days makes, eh?
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Has it ever been otherwise? That's a rare bird indeed.
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One would think the AI models would excel in a situation like this. I think the conventional wisdom that overrunning systems generally end up north of where originally modeled is the type of thing the AI models would "know" from historical data, which the models incorporate. OTOH, if this is the "rare" time the physics-based models are correct, the AI versions will have egg on their face.
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4.9" yesterday. 7.9 OTG all in for the weekend (there was some settling).
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Fabulous storm here. 7.9" total. 7" OTG.
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4.9" final on the day. Still very light snow falling. Temp 29.7.
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About like I felt when someone told me you can give someone else control of a document on Zoom............
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2.8" on the day (snow board cleared after morning brief lull). Moderate snow now. Temp 30.9
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1" down with light steady "snow globe" snow. Temp 27.5
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Just wondering where you picked up an extra 2" since we live a stones throw away? I was travelling over Christmas week, did I miss an event? December 6, 2025…………………………………..0.2” December 14, 2025………………………………...7.2” December 23. 2025………………………………...0.5” December 26, 2025………………………………...1.5” January 1, 2026…………………………………….0.5” January 2, 2026……………………………………..0.1” January 17, 2026…………………………………...3.0” 2025-2026 Running Total……………….…….…13.0”
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3" down. Very light now continues but believe we are done accumulating. Temp. 31.5
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2.25" down with moderate snow. Temp 30.6
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1.5" now on the hill.
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I have 1.5" down right now and still snowing hard. That map is going to bust badly.
